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Originally posted by SecretNebraska
All my life living in Nebraska tornadoes only really popped up when the temps got in the 90s, maybe 87 - 88 degrees at the lowest.
Cold Front
A cold front is defined as the leading edge of a cooler mass of air, replacing (at ground level) a warmer mass of air, which lies within a fairly sharp surface trough of low pressure. It forms in the wake of an extratropical cyclone, at the leading edge of its cold air advection pattern, which is also known as the cyclone's dry conveyor belt circulation. Temperature changes across the boundary can be as much as 30C (50F). When enough moisture is present, rain can occur along the boundary. If there is significant instability along the boundary, a narrow line of thunderstorms can form along the frontal zone. If instability is less, a broad shield of rain can move in behind the front, which increases the temperature difference across the boundary. They are stronger in the fall and spring transition seasons, and weakest during the summer.
Originally posted by Uncinus
The area where tornadoes were predicted is very large. It's easy enough to roughly forecast the weather a day or two in advance, and say the condition will be right somewhere over a large area (a tornado watch). It's much harder to forecast exactly where the tornadoes will be until just before they arrive (a tornado warning).
Tornadoes are NOT forecastable within a few days, PERIOD. We get plenty of them in the mid west and trust me, they come out of nowhere.
Since most tornadoes are formed in conjunction with severe thunderstorms, forecasters first must determine where thunderstorms are likely to form and reach the severity necessary for tornado formation.