4/9/2012 Big week for severe thunderstorms in the central US plains

Don't be surprised if we get another few rounds of tornadoes and severe weather any day this week. A big trough of low pressure is setting up in the western US and unabated moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico with 65 degree dew points will stream into the plains creating a very unstable airmass. I'm sure Dutchsinse the fraud will be all over this one. But as you'll see if you take the time to read, it's already been predicted.

SPC day one outlook:

www.spc.noaa.gov...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH MAY ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK.

SPC Day 2 outlook:

www.spc.noaa.gov...

SPC Day 3 outlook:

www.spc.noaa.gov...

SPC long range outlook:

www.spc.noaa.gov...

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING D4/THU THROUGH D6/SAT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RICH MOISTURE RETURN INTO OK/KS ON D4/D5 AND THEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON D6. THIS COMBINED WITH ENEWD EXTENSION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH D6. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM MID TO LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS SUCH THAT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING D4...D5...AND D6. THE STRONGEST BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON D6/SAT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ALSO EXPANDING SWD SOME INTO N TX AND NEWD INTO SWRN IA.

NWS Dodge City Kansas Area Hazardous Weather Outlook:

forecast.weather.gov... ather+Outlook

THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERY DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM TUESDAY TO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A JOHNSON TO LIBERAL LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE A LARGER PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSTABLE AIR AND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

National Weather Service Wichita:

forecast.weather.gov... us+Weather+Outlook

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS PERIOD...SO PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

National Weather Service Normon Oklahoma:

forecast.weather.gov... +Outlook

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA...AND NEAR THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

From my looking at the models, Thursday looks like the big day with a classic tornado alley setup with a strong jet stream overhead and 65 + degree dewpoints leading to strong instability and strong wind shear supportive of tornadic supercell thunderstorms, mostly in central Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Tis the season for spring rain, floods and tornadoes. Most of us in the Midwest come to expect this every year.

This is nothing new and I hope everyone can stay safe.

OOOOOOOKLAHOMA, Where the wind coooomes sweepin' down the plains'

We are used to it. Some of us even like it, as long as the Tornados' stay in the country. Had that F5 last year miss my house by about 2 miles......that was getting a bit to close for comfort.

Missed one once by 1/4 mile.....didn't see it, was wrapped in with the rain....

reply to post by SrWingCommander


May 24, 2011? I was chasing the EF-5 near El Reno!

This is what I am scared of!

Darn it !!!
Here we go again!

OK, for today's threat (Monday, 4/9/2012), a tornado watch will be issued shortly for western Oklahoma and southwest Kansas. That is the likely area for today's severe weather threat.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

I will be under the gun Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Possibly Monday. Heads up everyone, seek shelter when you hear those sirens. Stay safe. I'm sure someone will post as the weather starts to roll in, we will be with ya!

Thanks for the heads up,Drew.

Mother Nature will be rocking and rolling again.

reply to post by Drew99GT




Yup, I live south of Surrey out near Piedmont.

OK, I see Dutchfraud (Dutchsinse) put out a video AFTER I made this thread.

Today's severe weather threat area: The Texas panhandle area.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

National Weather Service Amarillo forecast office

A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NORTH OF THIS FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S...WHILE HIGHS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND YESTERDAY/S READINGS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT TO HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

Not much tornado threat. Large hail and wind.

Here are some videos of yesterday's tornadoes in northwest Oklahoma.

Things are still on track for a fairly big............what I'd call outbreak of severe weather towards the end of the week - Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

HE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS REMAIN SIMILAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR FRI APR 13 AND SAT APR 14. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON D4 TO 50-70 KT WITH A FURTHER INCREASE ON D5 AS A 70-90 KT JET MOVES FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A STRONG SLY LLJ MAINTAINING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

Dead link.

Forecast for Friday in central Kansas down through Oklahoma. No HAARP rings required and Dutchsinse hasn't even mentioned this big severe weather outbreak that is immanent.

ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED WNWWD LATER FRI AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS ALONG AND E OF THE RETREATING DRY LINE. STRONG SURFACE HEATING INVOF THIS BOUNDARY AND BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY. STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KT ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE LINE...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS INTO THE EVENING...SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AFTER DARK INCLUDING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

Thursday has a smaller threat in western Kansas south though western Oklahoma.

Focus then shifts to Saturday which could be deadly.

A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SAT APR 14 FROM N TX THROUGH MUCH OF OK...CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA/SERN NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY SUNDAY AS TO WHERE THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL BE...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER TO PUSH THESE FEATURES THROUGH OUR AREA...WHEREAS THE GFS HOLDS THE DRYLINE BACK. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM-WRF ALL AGREE THAT OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN OK. HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45-60 KT CUTTING AT A WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE DRYLINE WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODERATE-STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM HELICITY...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS EAST OF DRYLINE SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. IF THE GFS ENDS UP CORRECT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY.

forecast.weather.gov...