2030 - Population Declines Following Economic Collapse

An interesting article in this month's Smithsonian hit on stories I've often read that hinted our current track of population growth and economic success is unsustainable. I think we've all read stories about Peak Oil and financial collapse is a daily question in many news papers. I've even spent some time reading sites like dieoff.org... Of course these topics are all covered here on ATS in some form or another but rarely do we see a unified vision of what the future might be presented in a leading publication.

The world is on track for disaster. So says Australian physicist Graham Turner, who revisited perhaps the most groundbreaking academic work of the 1970s, The Limits to Growth.

Written by MIT researchers for an international think tank, the Club of Rome, the study used computers to model several possible future scenarios. The business-as-usual scenario estimated that if human beings continued to consume more than nature was capable of providing, global economic collapse and precipitous population decline could occur by 2030.

Read more: www.smithsonianmag.com...

I'm not all doom and gloom on this but I do find it hard to believe that we can continue growing the economy, population, energy production, the food supply, and fresh water access. There must be a scientific limit to the amount of people that this planet can support. I have no doubt that modern science helps to stretch that limit but once we have some type of unforeseen event that knocks out one of the legs were standing on the ensuing catastrophe will cause the population to snap back like a rubber band and it isn't going to be pretty.

As pointed out in the article, limiting economic growth will place billions in the poverty class that they can never climb out of. Given all the recent talk about the 99% I have to wonder is this some sort of plan that's being woven by the groups like the Club of Rome or is it just a natural phenomenon that eventually happens no matter how hard we try to struggle from it's grasp?

Even the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs seems to indicate that there could be a serious decrease in the world's population in the future if the population exceeds the agricultural production growth rate. As far back as 1798 Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the Principal of Population where he promoted his view that death would eventually visit mankind in the form of disease, war, or famine. One has to wonder if we've stretched ourselves too thin by using the miracles of modern science to sustain a population of 7 Billion people.

"The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world".

So be it the "devices of me" or even just a natural phenomenon will we see some sort of a vast change within the next 20 years? Is this what the struggle is? Could all the economic policies and social programs that we're in right now just be an effort to avoid the inevitable? Will we be able to sustain the population at the current rate?

Originally posted by dbates
I'm not all doom and gloom on this but I do find it hard to believe that we can continue growing the economy, population, energy production, the food supply, and fresh water access. There must be a scientific limit to the amount of people that this planet can support.

There of course is, and the number will be a sliding scale based on the science available.
The issue of course is that many people simply reject science. (you will see this in this thread soon I am sure).

I think we must also remember we are not a single global government...so the population of say, the US or Russia may be fine for quite awhile, but places like china and india are already way over their limits in regards to sustainability.
The true circus is when the oil dries up, and heaven forbid those quacky 97.2% of scientists are proved right about global warming and the entire ecosystem changes to sustain less food growth

I watched a discovery channel thing quite awhile back which discussed how globally, our max will be about 12 billion on planet..and either it will naturally stay to that number due to resources to person ratio, or we will go in flux due to the planet simply not able to sustain such numbers beyond that..but, the problem with that was, it was as a whole..it didn't differentiate between global and local population/resources...and the rampant corruption in food lines and such even now.

Let the flaming begin. Will start the comments out with the appropriate image:

I remember reading an article AGES ago (like when the population was still below the 7 billion mark) which stated that if every human on the planet were to have access to the same quality of life, riches and welfare as those of us fortunate enough to be born into the first world, we would need 2 whole earths to provide the resources.
The human population is WAY out of control, at some point we must address it and I'm sure as usual we will leave it until it's too late. 7 billion of any animal would be considered a plague.

Originally posted by SaturnFX
The true circus is when the oil dries up

That's what I fear is the most vulnerable leg of the platform we're using to sustain an elevated number of humans. Of course by drying up we just mean becomes too expensive to be economically feasible for everyone to have when they want it. And like you said some countries will have an advantage over others on dragging out and prolonging their flow of energy when it becomes harder to get. I doubt that everyone will go peacefully into that good night. There are going to be some not so pretty wars over this stuff eventually. Of course I see the Iraq invasion and the precursor Desert Storm to be mostly about oil security so perhaps we're on the cusp of this now.

Originally posted by dbates

Originally posted by SaturnFX
The true circus is when the oil dries up

That's what I fear is the most vulnerable leg of the platform we're using to sustain an elevated number of humans. Of course by drying up we just mean becomes too expensive to be economically feasible for everyone to have when they want it. And like you said some countries will have an advantage over others on dragging out and prolonging their flow of energy when it becomes harder to get. I doubt that everyone will go peacefully into that good night. There are going to be some not so pretty wars over this stuff eventually. Of course I see the Iraq invasion and the precursor Desert Storm to be mostly about oil security so perhaps we're on the cusp of this now.

Was discussing this the other day with my english friend. She informed me about the panic purchases that killed the petrol over there.
It was funny...the government feared a potential shortage of fuel, so panicked everyone by announcing to fill up, which created a shortage of fuel. Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy.

But anyhow, I am trying to remain highly optimistic towards what is going on...my dreamland imagination is telling me that a new energy source is about to be unveiled, but corporate interests have allowed oil to make its final profits for a few more years...really soak the public good and make the stockholders fat...then after a certain date, this "discovery" is released, making oil basically worthless and back to plastics and lube only....so..
yay optimism

but truth is, we are probably all screwed...meh, who wants truth when you can't change it.

Originally posted by Silverkiss
7 billion of any animal would be considered a plague.

edit on 4-4-2012 by Silverkiss because: wasn't finished ranting

Ants?


Actually, thats not a lot. the issue is our consumption. We are serious eaters/users/destroyers to our environment as it stands.
however, I believe that we must push this more..we can't go back..we won't be going back into caves and stuffing 500 people per little hole while we eat bugs...
Technology now must save us..expanding out...space stations, colonization, etc...and we must see it as a human priority to get on this immediately..pronto..we should have already been in the initial stages of mars terraformation, giant moon bases, etc...but..oh well. Either we will explode out, or we will atrophy and die here.

Originally posted by SaturnFX

Originally posted by dbates

Originally posted by SaturnFX
The true circus is when the oil dries up

That's what I fear is the most vulnerable leg of the platform we're using to sustain an elevated number of humans. Of course by drying up we just mean becomes too expensive to be economically feasible for everyone to have when they want it. And like you said some countries will have an advantage over others on dragging out and prolonging their flow of energy when it becomes harder to get. I doubt that everyone will go peacefully into that good night. There are going to be some not so pretty wars over this stuff eventually. Of course I see the Iraq invasion and the precursor Desert Storm to be mostly about oil security so perhaps we're on the cusp of this now.

Was discussing this the other day with my english friend. She informed me about the panic purchases that killed the petrol over there.
It was funny...the government feared a potential shortage of fuel, so panicked everyone by announcing to fill up, which created a shortage of fuel. Talk about a self fulfilling prophecy.

The British AA (Automobil Association) made a calculated guesstimate that the panic buying poured an additional £32m per day into Treasury coffers. To my mind, sounds more like a fund raising drive than a prophecy!

Originally posted by teapot
The British AA (Automobil Association) made a calculated guesstimate that the panic buying poured an additional £32m per day into Treasury coffers. To my mind, sounds more like a fund raising drive than a prophecy!

Well done then. They have taken note of our NRA here. Whenever there is an election in the states and a liberal may win, they insist guns are about to be outlawed..probably...and watch their profits spike drastically due to panic purchasing.
Total scam of course..but man people are gullible. Nothing sells as well as things feared about to go away...but anyhow, ya...so there you go. Britian stumbled across a way to fix their money issues..just come out once a month and say "omg, petrol is about to go..everyone get some quick before its gone"...and voila.

This kind of trend is inevitable in very many systems.
If a completely new paradigm occurs a bifurcation may enable continued growth.
Such may be the emergence of fusion energy and possibly a way to terraform desert into arable land.
For these types of radical innovations to occur, vast resources must be invested into highly speculative ventures.
At what point have we run out of the chips with which to gamble ?

Hmmm.... here, a system that is equal and legal, ours is slavery and that violates basic common law, so is intrinstically criminal, crimes against humanity at its core, where EVERYONE WINS EQUALLY, and all who wish to participate may, where there would no deaths, no injustice, no crashing.

Versus, this doom porn. This PTB academia crapola.

Its a no brainer.

I demand justice from them and an end to crimes against humanity.

www.abovetopsecret.com...
Paradise or Oblivion - new documentary by The Venus Project,

To TPTB: When you have solutions and do the wrong thing just to be a criminal thug, enrich yourself and serve Lucifer, and thus harm as many as you can, but the solution was always there, you are a very dark soul.

We have the solutions. Implement them. Don't stand there raping the world and its citizens and pouring more money into your bank accounts, just do the right thing instead.