Originally posted by MamaJ
reply to post by bobs_uruncle
This scenario has two outcomes, it goes very bad or it goes ELE bad imho. All we can do is wait and see.
I am bar far educated on this matter. I read your post and it all makes sense however I was not under the impression it could cause an ELE. Can you
go into further detail....ya know....for dummies who are unaware. Thanks!
If you could line up all ~7 billion people in front of a dispersion machine that would administer 1/7,000,000,000th of 1 pound to each one of those ~7
billion individuals they will all die. It might take weeks or months or a year, but they will all develop cancer and die.
Now take the total amount at Fukushima and consider criticality at 16kg's with a number of latent masses nearby of say 10% of the total of 210kgs or
21kgs. Let's use 3 piles of 7kg's or 15.4 lbs times three. Now this is probably a worst case scenario, so don't get your nickers in a knot.
If during meltdown and stratification, there was a sudden influx of p239 to a main pool of stratified p239 that was say 2 or 3 pounds below critical
mass, that would probably start a chain reaction. It would blow apart the containment chamber and level the surrounding area, probably about a mile
out in radius. The flame column, that is normally seen from a nuclear weapon, would likely extend anywhere from 5,000 to 20,000 feet vertically and it
would be carrying much of that latent p239 and u238 that was laying around in a melted or semi melted state as basically a weaponized aerosol. If the
weather conditions were within 20% of being right for delivery, the Jet Stream would pick it up. So what Tepco has is basically a large mass aerosol
"dirty bomb" sitting there waiting to go bang.
I am quite sure the Japanese don't want this to happen and will do everything in their power to prevent it from happening. But considering the
ineptitude, greed, deceit and lack of transparency by all the governments of this little blue marble, there is a better than non-zero probability that
it will happen.
Now back to probabilities, not everyone in the area of a dirty bomb dies, even if the area is planet sized. It is all in the luck of the draw and
calculating the effects of wind and water. People may be close to a cloud of material and not be traumatically effected, as the direction and wind
currents may drop large portions in centralized or specific areas away from them. This of course makes those areas dead zones, but those dead zones
also decrease the risk for other areas. So, even though 1lb of p239 could kill everyone on the planet, it is unlikely that even 20lbs will. However,
it would be an earth shattering event as much of the planet would be rendered uninhabitable/inhospitable. It would screw up the oceans and the food
But who knows what is going to happen. But I'll tell you a little story... In 1987 there was a plane carrying nine 1kg rods for a weapon system in SA.
The rods came from NK under US and SA supervision and the lead handler was my CO. The plane exploded over the Indian Ocean killing the crew and 140
passengers (it was a covert op during the weapons embargo to SA). The rods were in a special container near the back of the plane and a fire started
towards the middle (long story, I'll do a thread about it sometime). An investigator I know from the UN (I still keep my intel community contacts)
told me that if that plane had of landed, the island that it was going to land on would have been dead for 10,000 years. The material fortunately
didn't go critical, the plane broke up at about 9,000 feet which separated the central cargo bay fire from the tail section. It hit the water and sank
more than 15,000 feet. When the SRO brought up certain parts of the plane, they had to wear radiation hazmat suits. I'm not a religious man, but I
still say a little prayer for those poor people on the anniversary every year. So this stuff is dangerous, make no mistake. I have radiation detectors
here in Canada and I was noticing a 3000% increase (30 times higher) above background radiation in areas of pooled rain water.
Cheers - Dave
edit on 3/29.2012 by bobs_uruncle because: spelling...oops
edit on 3/29.2012 by bobs_uruncle because: made a
mistake in percentages