If a huge Earth changing event happens in 2012, will the skeptics admit it was predicted?

Originally posted by loves a conspiricy
reply to post by GLontra

 

The skeptics are irrational....are you serious?

99.9999999% of all predictions on here dont happen. 99.9% of all predictions worldwide dont happen.

The odds of the world ending in 2012 are stupidly huge. You have more chance of an alien invasion

If you want people to tell you what you want to hear then obviously avoid the skeptics, if you want some help in getting to the answers you seek, then you have to accept, you can be wrong...and most probably are in regard to earth changing events in 2012.

As another poster said, wars dont count. They have been manufactured since the dawn of man, so they are inevitable, and highly likely this year.

You know... skepticism for me works both ways.

99.99999% of predictions on ats and 99.9% of all predictions world wide...

Now... can you explain me the math you went through to get those awesomely precise results? Or... the numbers just pop out from, you know... where the sun doesnt shine?

I predict that a whole lot of people should (they most likely won't...but should) log onto ATS on 1/1/13 and apologise.

I predict that the first day of 2013 will be a day that a lot on ATS will suddenly turn into sceptics and begin to shun stupid predictions made by some stoner claiming to be in touch with the universe.

I also predict that the sun will rise on the 'morrow and that water will be wet.

reply to post by GLontra


The chances of something "HUGE" happening in 2012 are good, as something "HUGE" arguably happens every single year. That's the stupidity behind the 2012 predictions, literally ANYTHING could fit the vague descriptions and predictions of the believers. Think about the sheer number of things that have been predicted about 2012, you mention several in your post.

Eruptions, quakes, black holes, comets or asteroids, brown dwarf stars, planet X/Nibiru, pandemics and diseases, spiritual ascensions, galactic alignments, alien invasions, NWO take-overs, world wars, floods, dogs and cats living together MASS HYSTERIA!

The chances that SOMETHING big will happen in 2012 are good and the con-men who peddle 2012, and the sheep who follow after them, will attribute anything to their belief. Think back to 2004, to the Tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people, now imagine if that happened in 2012. Believers would all try to claim that it was the event that was predicted, but would they have a point?

So you're absolutely right in my case, I, as a skeptic, will not begin believing in these sorts of predictions when one of the 50,000 various predictions about 2012 turns out to be true and yes coincidence easily explains it.

Same as this ^^^^^^^^^^^^ (Titen-Sxull)

That said, if you are right and the there is an apocalypse then no, you will not get an apology as i will be either:

a) most likely dead, or
b) flapping about surviving and therefore not worrying in the least about an apology.

reply to post by GLontra


Only if it was actually predicted.

"something will happen in 2012" doesn't count, it has to be a SPECIFIC prediction.

When it doesn't happen, will you "nonskeptics" finally admit defeat?

I dont get the skeptic vs non skeptic idea????

I am not gullible. I look at KNOWN facts (not theories) and I also am a leader...never been a "follower".

I believe I am skeptical and if I don't KNOW something instead of following a theory I do my own research and come up with my own conclusion. No sheep here!

You cannot call yourself a skeptic all the while believing whole heartily in a theory without doing your own investigative work to come up with a belief in said theory.

Spouting off others work and research is not exactly skeptical to me....at all!

I have been researching like crazy with some of my free time. I have to say...odds of big change not only on this planet but other bodies in the solar system are pretty dang good. Its inevitable.

One will never fully concede, neither believer or skeptic.

Originally posted by MaMaa
If something happens then sure I'll admit I was wrong, why is that such a big deal? I think a lot of people would do the same. If something happens that maybe I scoffed at or thought was wrong previously then I'm woman enough to be the first to say "I'm sorry, I was wrong". But lets put the shoe on the other foot for a moment. What if nothing happens and we enter into 2013 without any massive world changing or ending event, will all of the 'believers' admit they were wrong? Or will they continually recalculate and say the date was off and the end is in a different year/time? There is only so much recalculating and re-figuring of doomsday dates someone can do and still expect to be believed.

So, it's almost certainly a waste of time to debate with believers. Believers only believe what they want to believe. They are irrational.


Personally I don't know that anything will happen other than the sun will rise and set just like usual. But the key there is that I don't know, none of us do. I'll take what happens as it happens. I live in a place where I am typically prepared for many things (Colorado Mountains) and beyond that I will just take it one day at a time. Same way I live my life now actually! I refuse to live my life in fear of something that 'might' happen.

Hear hear!

Let's wait and see.

I won't insist in this worthless debate anymore.

Time will tell.

reply to post by GLontra


I have noticed that the response you posted above is becoming your standard response when people will not agree with you.

All i would say to you is relax chief, do not get so stressed. This site promotes debate. Debate requires opposing (and conflicting) view points. If that is how react when people do not agree with you then possibly this is the wrong site for you?

Take it easy and do not take this the wrong way (although i have a feeling you may).

reply to post by MamaJ

I have to say...odds of big change not only on this planet but other bodies in the solar system are pretty dang good. Its inevitable.

Well yes of course it is. Change is inevitable and indeed that's one of the biggest OBJECTIONS to this 2012 nonsense that can be raised. Change is happening all the time, in the world around us, in the greater cosmos, and within ourselves. There are dozens of claims about what will happen in 2012 ranging from fairly mundane stuff such as Earthquakes or mega-eruptions (Yellowstone) to the esoteric and bizarre (spiritual ascensions to the fifth dimension or what have you).

The chance that SOMETHING will happen in 2012 is quite good especially when the range of what 2012 believers mean by SOMETHING is more broad and vague than any supposed prophecy in the history of prophecy. This will mean that if ANYTHING remotely big happens, or appear to have happened, folks will attribute it to 2012, even if it's something no actual ancient prophecy ever predicted. There's a recent example in all the "loud Earth noise" viral videos that have shown up on youtube and elsewhere online or even farther back the strange animal die-offs that had everyone panicked. Any of these events could be linked to 2012 by interpreting unrelated events to fit under the 2012 umbrella.

People in the new age community have, for decades really, loved to stir up the idea that "SOMETHING BIG" was coming, ATS is filled with hundreds and hundreds of failed prediction threads of folks predicting something "big" on the way.

You may not be gullible but many who buy into this stuff ARE VERY MUCH SO. How often does the hype here on ATS for some supposed event get to a ridiculous level? We see it ALL THE TIME, dozens of threads will crop up about a SINGLE topic seemingly OVER-NIGHT. Everyone, I hope, remembers the dud that was Elenin, and I can't even count the number of threads I've seen about spaceships captured on SOHO or some other imaging technology that are supposedly on their way to Earth as we speak.

ATS, as a community, is VERY gullible, and often independent research means that we go off and look into a subject only on one side, the side that makes us feel better, the side we WANT to believe. There's more to being a skeptic then just researching a subject and there's definitely more to it than just rejecting an idea out of hand as some folks like to do. People get swept up in feelings and intuition of something "big about to happen" all the time, and for some reason we continue to get riled up every time another person cries wolf.

When I first discovered 2012 I was intrigued, I researched the subject for a while but soon found myself having to reject the ideas being presented. Why? Because I looked into whether what the proponents of 2012 were saying was true and could find no good supporting evidence. I discovered there is no special galactic alignment, that Nemesis the supposed dwarf star was never confirmed by any evidence, in fact none of the specific claims made by 2012 proponents regarding any doomsdays or ascensions hold any water whatsoever. I soon realized that 2012 is just one in a long line of supposed doomsdays, only this one is being profited from like never before.

2012 is a big money maker, even spawning a feature film, but even before that pseudoscientific con-men were penning books and doing speaking tours spreading all manner of new age pseudoscience about 2012 as if it were scientific fact and making bank selling these ideas to the masses of gullible folks out there. Even worse they managed to con people into wasting money on doomsday bunkers not to mention the emotional stress, fear and in some cases suicidal thoughts caused by their bunk science.

And all for what? What will turn out inevitably to be a case of prophetic blue balls bigger and better than Y2K.

Ridiculousness.

No one will cede because they are ignorant. But for sure, skeptics and scoffers are definitely more ignorant by nature. I've seen many a predictor admit they were wrong, but never have I seen a skeptic, not ONCE admit they were wrong about a topic. They simply make up excuses to work away from a point or blame a reaction on the most random of universal eccentricities - "coincidence". It is quite funny.

The thing about 2012 is not many people are PREDICTING anything to happen. A lot of people FEEL that something may happen. Various sources have said of the POSSIBILITY of something happening. Ancient civilizations have been INTERPRETED as warning or something happening. People who view the POSSIBILITY of something happening keep an open eye and an open mind, while the skeptics remain ignorant to the process.

Even when something "out of the ordinary" does happen, skeptics will place blame, once again on coincidence. Even when the number of "out of the ordinary" events becomes more and more astounding as we have reached closer to this point and as we move further along, they continue to make excuse after excuse after excuse... after excuse... after excuse...

... after excuse.


But I have come to accept that. Because you see, it is the same type of people I deal with when trying to "wake people up" but they just don't want to. No matter how much evidence you provide and no matter how many inconsistencies to their reality you paint directly in front of their faces, they will do absolutely EVERYTHING in their power to maintain the placid illusion in front of their faces that everything is business as usual and nothing can go wrong. They don't want to have to worry about stuff like this, they don't need the stress on their plate... they would much rather continue their ignorant drive through live, never realizing how much more their would be if they just slowed down to take it all in.

I am a believer that something will happen in 2012. Do I know what it will be? No. Am I positive of it? Nope. But I sure as hell embrace the possibility and see the big picture.


Last but not least - should nothing come to pass, and 2012 comes and goes and nothing does happen - I don't have to APOLOGIZE to anyone. People say the "predictors" who are wrong should apologize? Should you apologize for liking your favorite food when I don't? Should you apologize because you watched a stupid movie? Should you apologize because of your religion or any of your beliefs? Absolutely not. So what exactly would we, the believers, be apologizing for? Last I looked we weren't shoving our beliefs down anyone's throats, and it was up to you to make your own conscious decision on what you decided to believe.

On the contrary, it is the skeptics and scoffers, the ones who come in to topics and throw around insults and slurs against people making predictions and announcing their beliefs - whether they are TRUE OR NOT, that should be making the apologies. You want to be mature adults, they take the first step and act like it.

And most of all, by the end of 2012, I hope that something DOES happen just so that the people who are the worst of all of us - those who ridiculed those for preparing for disaster, laughed and joked about such things, will know what it is like to have nothing, to go with nothing, to receive nothing, and to die - with nothing. And you will deserve it too.

My two cents.

And to all those saying that there are HIGH odds for some radical, Earth shattering or Earth changing event to happen every year....

...tell me, if that is the case, when exactly was the last "Earth changing event" that is apparently so common. Because, with the exception of a few man made events... can't really think of anything in the last, I don't know, few centuries at least.

If anyone could fill me in on this since the probabilities are so "high". After all, since it is so common, if something major happened this year it will be "no biggy" right?

reply to post by gwydionblack


Ok, Japanese tsunami last year - earth changing event as it altered the axis of the earth.

Indonesian earthquake of 2004 for the above reason, and so on.

reply to post by Flavian


I certainly wasn't affected. Were you? I mean sure, I guess I tilted a little bit. I'm pretty sure no one who believes in 2012 is going to label a Japan level quake as the 2012 "event".

Second line..

reply to post by gwydionblack

No one will cede because they are ignorant. But for sure, skeptics and scoffers are definitely more ignorant by nature. I've seen many a predictor admit they were wrong, but never have I seen a skeptic, not ONCE admit they were wrong about a topic. They simply make up excuses to work away from a point or blame a reaction on the most random of universal eccentricities - "coincidence". It is quite funny.

Claiming that skeptics are more ignorant by nature suggests a personal bias.

Ignorance is not knowing. Ignorance is the realm of those that accept anything thrown their way. This is often done with the excuse that they have an open mind.

I rarely see a predictor say they were wrong. They simple become quiet till the next ridiculous claim is posted. On the other hand I know skeptics admit mistakes. There are plenty of places I have admitted mistakes. Keep an eye out and look for skeptics admitting mistakes.

The thing about 2012 is not many people are PREDICTING anything to happen.

Let's make a short list:
1. ascension
2. rapture
3. Elenin
4. Quakes
5. Volcanoes
6. Tsunamis
7. Meteorite/asteroid impact
8. Nibiru
9. disclosure
10. second sun
11. apocalypse
12. singularity

Even when the number of "out of the ordinary" events becomes more and more astounding as we have reached closer to this point and as we move further along, they continue to make excuse after excuse after excuse... after excuse... after excuse...

Skip the excuses and provide us with your dozen events.

No matter how much evidence you provide and no matter how many inconsistencies to their reality you paint directly in front of their faces, they will do absolutely EVERYTHING in their power to maintain the placid illusion in front of their faces that everything is business as usual and nothing can go wrong.

Lay out some of these events. Substantiate these claims.

People say the "predictors" who are wrong should apologize? Should you apologize for liking your favorite food when I don't?

The apology request here is out of context. There are specific reasons for such a request and are not simply because someone made a prediction.

On the contrary, it is the skeptics and scoffers, the ones who come in to topics and throw around insults and slurs against people making predictions and announcing their beliefs - whether they are TRUE OR NOT, that should be making the apologies.

Not true at all. Information is met with slurs such as disinfo agent.

Those of us who prepared will at least know that moment came for those people before they died.

I think, truly that is probably the most offensive sentence I have ever read on ATS.

I am sceptic. This means I believe, it is unlikely, based on the the evidence, that we will experience a GLOBAL event of cataclysmic consequences, whether natural or man made ( or some weird spiritual fill in the blank).

However, I cannot completely dismiss that something GLOBAL may happen. Global Cataclysms have happened before in the history of our planet, and they will happen again.


What I know, for an absolute fact, is that it is likely that we will continue to experience, floods, tsunamis,earthquakes, hurricanes, cyclones, wars, random psycho killers, ect; on a more regional level.

For these events I HAVE prepared, because it is a hell of lot more likely to occur in 2012 than Niburu or Mayan Doom or Space Goat farts...

So, yeah...you won't get any satisfaction out of my death.

reply to post by stereologist

I rarely see a predictor say they were wrong. They simple become quiet till the next ridiculous claim is posted. On the other hand I know skeptics admit mistakes. There are plenty of places I have admitted mistakes. Keep an eye out and look for skeptics admitting mistakes.

Perhaps I should rephrase it. I see predictors admit they were wrong MORESO than skeptics. Skeptics rarely, if ever, admit they were wrong when it comes to someone making a prediction. Take this topic for a perfect example:

Earthquake Prediction, M 7.2+ In Next 4 Days ..

Person makes darn near PERFECT prediction. Skeptics and scoffers come in and berate his words. Prediction comes true. Nearly every person who berated him returns with replies such as:

"Well he didn't predict the location so he was just lucky."

"It was downgraded hours later by .1 by a couple sources, so he was wrong."

"There is a .05% chance of him being correct on any given day, so this was just a coincidence."

"Predict 12 more earthquakes in a row, and THEN I'll give you credit."

In short, 95% of all skeptics are walls. They have their limitations of belief that no matter how much something does not fit into their fine little web of logic, no matter how much they can't admit even the fraction of some possibility of something being true - they will stop at nothing to make sure they remain on the winning end.

Now I will admit, there were a couple that came in and congratulated the person - but they were the ones who were skeptical from both ends. They were the people who said, "Well, it probably won't happen, but I still believe in the possibility that you could in fact be right." The people who I am referring to from this point forward are those, for whatever reason in their illogical minds believe that they hold the keys to determining that something they believe is has 100% probability of NOT happening and thus THEY are right, you are WRONG, end of story, even if you are right you are still wrong - and there are plenty of them here on ATS even in this very topic.

Let's make a short list...

Yes, yes, as I said, people are calling or expecting for SOMETHING to happen, but not many people are PREDICTING them. There is a difference you know. And I don't know of anyone who is expecting all of them. In fact, I think that many people are just open to the idea, the sheer possibility, however small it may be, that one of those things may in fact happen while the skeptics say there is 0% possibility. Sorry, but the skeptics need to take a statistics class.

Skip the excuses and provide us with your dozen events.

Not the purpose of this topic and I'm not going to derail. Anyone who looks can see. But to appease you - record flood, record tornadoes, odd earthquake activity, increased volcanic activity, abnormal weather activity, abnormal animal behavior and migration, increased solar activity, increase in the past couple of years in axis shifting quakes, and various other things. I could be more specific, but as I said - not this topic.

Lay out some of these events. Substantiate these claims.

As stated above.

The apology request here is out of context. There are specific reasons for such a request and are not simply because someone made a prediction.

Then please tell me what context it is in? Is it because you chose to waste your own time replying to a prediction thread that didn't come true? Is it because some people chose to get worked up over a failed prediction? I can't fathom why anyone who makes a failed prediction should have to apologize, with exception to someone along the lines of making a prediction to make a profit. I have not seen anyone on ATS doing that, so I daresay that no predictors on ATS owe absolutely anyone an apology. Whatever time, effort, or emotion you dedicated to a topic or subject on ATS is your prerogative on doing... not theirs.

Not true at all. Information is met with slurs such as disinfo agent.

Do two wrongs make a right? No. I hardly think the term "disinfo agent" is anywhere near a slur as calling someone an idiot for believing in something, but it is still not right. If moderators followed true "Decorum" on these forums, there would be no slurs, insults, or anything thrown around.

But sorry, when the first replies are -

"Can we move on?"

"Another failed prophecy."

"All this guy wants is stars and flags."

"Humans don't predict CRAP."


Don't see much relevant information from THOSE skeptics.

reply to post by gwydionblack

In short, 95% of all skeptics are walls. They have their limitations of belief that no matter how much something does not fit into their fine little web of logic, no matter how much they can't admit even the fraction of some possibility of something being true - they will stop at nothing to make sure they remain on the winning end.

I disagree. The problem with prediction is many:
1. Sometimes the predictor makes many predictions and only gets attached to the successes. This is what the gambler does. They forget about the huge losses yet recall the hundred dollar bet they won.
2. Sometimes they get lucky.
3. Sometimes its not luck as in the Tamara Rand scandal. She doctored up a video after the fact.
4. Sometimes its not luck because the odds are in their favor. Pick a date at random and you have a 77% chance that date is within plus or minus 15 days of a M7 or better quake.

Differentiating these issues from chance or coincidence is important. The issue is the validity of the finding.

Think about scientific studies. It is important to differentiate between dumb luck and real findings. These types of criticisms are not only important in studies, but welcome. Who wants to go through a study only to figure out later on that there is a fundamental flaw making the results useless?

Often I see screaming and whining when the same concepts are brought up about predictions that are applied to science.

In fact, I think that many people are just open to the idea, the sheer possibility, however small it may be, that one of those things may in fact happen while the skeptics say there is 0% possibility.

People are making all sorts of predictions. Skeptics can clearly show that there is 0 possibility that an unknown planet sized mass is in the inner parts of the solar system.

Not the purpose of this topic and I'm not going to derail. Anyone who looks can see. But to appease you - record flood, record tornadoes, odd earthquake activity, increased volcanic activity, abnormal weather activity, abnormal animal behavior and migration, increased solar activity, increase in the past couple of years in axis shifting quakes, and various other things. I could be more specific, but as I said - not this topic.

Floods are record level because there are always new records to set. Besides flooding is increasing due to human activity. That is established. Record tornado events happened a long time ago.earthquakes are not odd. Volcanoes are not increasing.Weather is always abnormal. Solar activity is supposed to increase as we head for a maximum.

I can't fathom why anyone who makes a failed prediction should have to apologize, with exception to someone along the lines of making a prediction to make a profit.

You figured it out. Apologizes have been asked for when it did harm.

I hardly think the term "disinfo agent" is anywhere near a slur

Mods have warned that calling someone a disinfo agent warrants a 1000 penalty.

reply to post by GLontra


This is really semantics. If I shoot you in the face, I can "predict" your death, because I'm the one causing it.Could some rougue agency nuke the planet on 12/21/2012? Of course, but it wouldn't make it a prediction.

Unless someone predicted specifically that event. Not some "OMG WWIII IS GOING TO HAPPEN! We're going to war with Iran! And N. Korea, and Syria, and don't forget China, or maybe the aliens, or the fake alien holograms made by the shadow govt."

Additionally if all the sudden Nibiru shows up I'm pretty sure I'm going to have more problems than saying "I was right/I was wrong" because it really doesn't matter at that point.