Magnitude 7.1 - MAULE, CHILE

reply to post by darkest4

But people don't like actual data here on ATS when they claim that the amount of storms, earthquakes, disasters etc is increasing every single year and the world is surely ending soon, how dare you sir!

My sincere apologies. I will try not to provide actual data in the future.

By the way just in case any one was wondering the BIG Chile quake in 1960 was a little further South of this one.

See the location here which also has a link to more real data (darn it so sorry. I just could not help myself)

Hello Everybody,

I am also from Chile and wanted to clear some things I've read on the thread.

First of all, like Caggy said, this quake was actually very soft. The thing is that it lasted a long time, so since Richter scale is based on the ammount of energy released, it will show up as a big number. But I have felt shorter quakes that moved a lot more and only got a 5 to 6 on Richter scale. Up until now, 14 people injured, no deaths and 280 people where put in security zones because of a possible Tsunami warning, which didn't happen (thank god).

About the Phone lines being down, that is actually not completely true. The land lines wheren't affected, but cellular phones lines collapsed because too many people where calling. Phone companies only have capacities here in Chile for 5-10% of phones circulating to be calling at once, so in certain situations, phone lines collapse and you can't get through, but this also happens on new year, not because of the earthquake.

Just to make things clear, everything is normal over here, some people still scared (memories of the 2010 quake still fresh), but mostly fear than any actual damage.

Another big quake is in the making, my sink drain sucked down the water fast and the toilet almost sucked me in again. That seems to happen many times just before a bigger quake.

reply to post by PuterMan


The Big 1960 quake in Chile, most people don't know, but there where 2 quakes, the first one was with an epicente close to Concepcion and was on saturday May 21st, 1960. It was 7.3 - 7.5 in magnitude.

When the country was getting ready to help the people of Concepcion and the area, on Sunday May 22nd, 1960 the big one hit close to Valdivia (about 600km south of Concepcion). This one was the 9.5 that everybody knows about.

Just a little history for those interesed.

reply to post by gringo74


Since you are in Chile too, can you answer what I asked to the other chilean brother?

reply to post by Trueman


No problem. I hadn't seen the video, sorry.

It isn't actually Marcelo Lagos's Theory. It is historical fact what he is saying and that there will be a big earthquake in the north is a fact.

All of the Chilean coast is on the clash of tectonic plates which move at a speed of 7cm a year (about 2.7 inches for non-metric members ). The way the tectonic plates move are by earthquakes. Now depending on the size of the rupture and the time between quakes, determines how big the earthqake will be.

What he is saying is that in the north of Chile there hasn't been a big earthquake in 134 years, which means there is 10 meters of movement that needs to happen. And it will happen.

Now, by the range of the rupture (about 600km) and the displacement (10 meters) he estimates that a worse case scenario would be that the full 600km will rupture simultanously and move the 10mt, and that would cause an earthquake of around 9 in Magnitude, very similar to what we lived here in Concepcion in 2010 (500km rupture with a movement of 10-14mt).

The bad part of it is that the tectonic plates clash about 200km offshore in the north, different from the south which is much less distance, so Tsunamis have more distance to form and can be much worse. 200km is about the distance from shore of the Japan earthquake.

So it looks pretty grim from a worse case scenario.What we don't know is exactly when it will hit. Best case scenario, a lot of smaller quakes with a slow release of energy. But obviously what he says is we must prepare for the worst.

reply to post by gringo74

The Big 1960 quake in Chile, most people don't know, but there where 2 quakes, the first one was with an epicente close to Concepcion and was on saturday May 21st, 1960. It was 7.3 - 7.5 in magnitude.

Thanks indeed for that. I did not know that. This places it along similar line to Japan with the mag 7 before the big one. (Actually I should say reminded me because when I looked at it I already had the info - memory not what it used to be.)

What he is saying is that in the north of Chile there hasn't been a big earthquake in 134 years, which means there is 10 meters of movement that needs to happen. And it will happen.

I hear what you are saying but I would also comment that theoretically at least these large quakes only occur when the subduction movement gets stuck. The quake is the result of the subsequent release.

The fact that the plate may have moved 10 metres in the given time period does NOT mean that there is 10 metres worth of built up energy. Some or all of that 10 metres may just have slipped below the continent in the normal manner. You cannot assume that it is all stuck.

full 600km will rupture simultanously

Again he cannot state this to be a fact. 600km is also not necessarily a mag 9. It depends on the surface area of rupture. Mag 9 in Cascadia would be 1000km as it was in Japan - all being approximate. The 8.8 was 2 times smaller than a mag 9 and the rupture length of 500km would indicate that.

Taking a very quick look at the historic quakes for Northern Chile, Bolivia and Northern Argentina approximately which more or less comprise the northern elements the largish quakes of recent year have in fact apparently relieved the stress to a great extent. Here is the stress 'sawtooth' chart for the area from 1900 to 2012



Whilst the current stress level would appear to be around 80,000TJ that is just under a mag 8.1

Consider then that a Mag 9 is 2,000,000 TJ you can see that the area has a long way to go before producing a mag 9.

I would need to refine these better as it was a rush job but based on this I would say that a mag 9 is extremely unlikely if not impossible.



I had a look at that video. Basically he is saying that there is a 600km section that is locked based on quakes that happened around the area. I am not sure, this area being on a curve, that you can say that however I noted that he says that there has not been a quake since 1877 but i could not pick up what magnitude quake that was.

If I can find that information, and now knowing what area he is talking about I can recalculate that stress chart.

reply to post by PuterMan


Good update and thorough info PuterMan!

Actually the program where he was on is a morning show which are based on ratings, so having him show a negative and fear mongering view would be tipical. Also they simplify things which are much more complicated and difficult to explain because this program is based for the general public of Chile who works at home (housewives and maids) who usually don't have a college education.

Normally these kinds of shows in Chile don't have a big credibility on scientific information.

I appreciate your hard work to show verifiable scientific information!

i understand california has had a 3.6 2 hours ago, seems they are creeping up and clustering on the coast

Here in Mexico we had a 6.0 and a 5.0 just off the coast this morning.I hope these are just aftershocks of the one we had last Tuesday.People here have been very nervous lately,including myself.I am from Canada and I am not used to all of this shaking going on.

reply to post by November5th

I hope these are just aftershocks of the one we had last Tuesday.

Obviously I cannot guarantee it but I believe that to be the case.

reply to post by gringo74


Thank you. That was very informative and I agree with all you explained. A 10 meters movement sounds really bad.

7.2 and no aftershocks, is that normal?

reply to post by whatnext21


Actually, the experts from the Universidad de Chile say that this is an Aftershock from the 2010 quake. At least that's what they said on the news yesterday.

reply to post by gringo74


That is quite likely given the 2010 quake size and the fact that there could be aftershock as long as 6 or 7 years after.

The 1877 quake by the way was an 8.3 off Tarapaca

Chile 1877 May 10 00:59 UTC Magnitude 8.3

Produced a 24m tsunami they say. Tarapaca features several times in the Centennial catalogue so i shall continue researching

The tsunami affected New Zealand

Wikipedia calls it the Iquique earthquake

The 1877 Iquique earthquake occurred at 21:16 local time on 9 May (0:59 on 10 May UTC). It had a magnitude of 8.8 on the moment magnitude scale

This would make it equal to the 2010 earthquake.

reply to post by gringo74


Taking the area that was drawn in the video


and just for interest showing the location of the 1877 quake - or at least the teon Iquiqui


The seismicity since 1963 to 5th Feb 2012 (last date I downloaded as part of my Flinn Engdahl regions study) looks like this with the very approximate 600 km potential rupture zone marked in white.


I shall continue with this tomorrow as it is getting late now and I have work to do before bed.

TrueAmerican, made a prediction for that area some time ago in this thread :

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by PuterMan


Actually there are around 18 quakes EVER year in the 7 to 7.9 range.

There was just a small quake about 20 minutes ago here in Concepcion, Chile. Info hasn't appeared on USGS yet, but it was a 4.4 according to the University of Chile's Site:

ssn.dgf.uchile.cl...

Things keep moving here in Chile!!

reply to post by PuterMan

At that rate we would have 16 by the end of the year.

Wow I wasn't aware quake's were on schedule. That's like saying Jordan has 10 points in first quarter he will have 40 at the end...