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Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by MegaMind
Why can't it be a coincidence?
You think that if someone could create an earthquake that they would do it minutes after an earthquake drill is supposed to start?
Why Mexico? Why this drill? How do they control the magnitude?
People have been blaming things like HAARP for creating earthquakes for years, why would they tip their hand now?
Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by MegaMind
Why can't it be a coincidence?
You think that if someone could create an earthquake that they would do it minutes after an earthquake drill is supposed to start?
Why Mexico? Why this drill? How do they control the magnitude?
People have been blaming things like HAARP for creating earthquakes for years, why would they tip their hand now?
Originally posted by Chadwickus
reply to post by MegaMind
If its not a coincidence.
And it's not man made, what is it then?
Explain...
Originally posted by GLontra
If the "skeptics" choose to keep being "skeptical" of BOTH possibilities, this is intellectual dishonesty. They know that it's mathematically IMPOSSIBLE to be a "coincidence". It's easier to win the lotto.
Originally posted by svetlana84
reply to post by MegaMind
The question, what are the odds just got me running.
Let's try to evaluate. It's gonna be quite basic, and if someone has better numbers, help me out with this.
Lets start with the simple probability rules : with 3 dices, you want to reach 6-6-6 each dice has the probability of 1/6 to get the six. So the calc would be (1/6)x(1/6)x(1/6) = 1/216
So we try earthquakes with the 3 variables time, scale and place
Time: to get down to a minute in one year: 365days x 24hours x 60min = 525 600 or probability 1/ 525 600
Scale: lets take a scale 0-10 down to 1 digit, probability is 1/ (10x9) = 1/90
place: this is difficult, lets brake it down to a country. With 195 nations on this planet, prob would be 1/195
(this is very crude, since there are higher risk countries, and we are not calculating regions)
So overall we'd have (1/525600)x(1/90)x(1/195) = 3.54e-10 Or 0.000000000035
Sorry cant put the -10in upper case.
So, if am right (again please correct me here) it would be 1 in 3 billions !!!
something i would not bet on, unless i am 100% sure the game is rigged...
Originally posted by lke123
I don't think that Obama wants to point haarp to the exact location where his daughter is righ now.
Do you know that the Obama daughter is in Oaxaca with his friends?
Originally posted by GLontra
The mathematical odds of this being a "coincidence" are negligible.
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by GLontra
The mathematical odds of this being a "coincidence" are negligible.
I kind of feel like we've already been over this.
No odds are negligible, given enough time and opportunity.
Originally posted by GLontra
Okay, so, how many earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY?
My "guesstimate" is that less than 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY until today.
If the odds of this "coincidence" are something like 1 in 2 million, and only 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the whole human history, so you can't talk about "enough time and opportunity" yet...
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by GLontra
The mathematical odds of this being a "coincidence" are negligible.
I kind of feel like we've already been over this.
No odds are negligible, given enough time and opportunity.
Again, what are the odds that YOU were born with the exact type of personality and the exact set of parents you have and the exact group of siblings you may or may not have in the exact city, state, province, country....etc.
Think about it. Take every single decision you've ever made throughout your entire life. What are the odds that one person would have made every single one of those decisions just as you have? Pretty darned small, huh? But sure enough, there you are having done just that.
We only think such odds are so spectacularly amazing because our context, our viewport, is so small. Any single thing you see happen in life has amazingly small odds of ever having happened, if you consider all the slight things that may have changed it from happening.
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by GLontra
Okay, so, how many earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY?
My "guesstimate" is that less than 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the WHOLE HISTORY OF HUMANITY until today.
If the odds of this "coincidence" are something like 1 in 2 million, and only 10 thousand earthquake drills happened in the whole human history, so you can't talk about "enough time and opportunity" yet...
But there is also a middle ground. The skeptic can say, "That is intriguing...it's enough to make me pay more attention." But that's about how far a skeptic can really go with such logic. Pay attention and wait for more info. Because odds alone, no matter how impressive, aren't enough to form any kind of conclusion.