Originally posted by khimbar

Originally posted by camus154
Ugh. Fine:

January 10, 2012 -- Indonesia, 7.2
February 2, 2012 -- Vanuatu, 7.1
December 14, 2011 -- New Guinea, 7.1
October 21, 2011 -- New Zealand, 7.4

So people are ignoring ones that don't fit their cycle of 188 days? Confirmation bias, which sort of makes sense I guess.

Still, pretty wiggy though. I know in my head it's not a 188 day cycle and people are manipulating the data to fit it, but still pretty fricking odd!

Hope everyone over there is ok.

Originally posted by khimbar

Originally posted by camus154
Ugh. Fine:

January 10, 2012 -- Indonesia, 7.2
February 2, 2012 -- Vanuatu, 7.1
December 14, 2011 -- New Guinea, 7.1
October 21, 2011 -- New Zealand, 7.4

So people are ignoring ones that don't fit their cycle of 188 days? Confirmation bias, which sort of makes sense I guess.

Still, pretty wiggy though. I know in my head it's not a 188 day cycle and people are manipulating the data to fit it, but still pretty fricking odd!

Hope everyone over there is ok.

Originally posted by GLontra

Originally posted by khimbar

Originally posted by camus154
Ugh. Fine:

January 10, 2012 -- Indonesia, 7.2
February 2, 2012 -- Vanuatu, 7.1
December 14, 2011 -- New Guinea, 7.1
October 21, 2011 -- New Zealand, 7.4

So people are ignoring ones that don't fit their cycle of 188 days? Confirmation bias, which sort of makes sense I guess.

Still, pretty wiggy though. I know in my head it's not a 188 day cycle and people are manipulating the data to fit it, but still pretty fricking odd!

Hope everyone over there is ok.

Take a look at that list again.

Do you see any quake above 7.0 in the month of November 2011?

Be honest, and calculate the REAL MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITES of a quake above 7.0 strike in any given random interval of 5 days (like the interval between March 20 and March 24)...

If you calculate it, you will see that the probabilites are FAIRLY LOW!

Originally posted by seenavv
I am absolutely amazed....

ever since elenin I have disregarded most of these kinds of predictions

for the 188 theory I just said, OK it might be true, lets see what happens... well this is it!

Originally posted by GLontra
Any specialist in statistics in the house?

What are the exact mathematical probabilities of a earthquake above 7.0 in the Richter scale to hit in any given random interval of 5 days?

For example, take the random interval between March 10 and March 14 (10, 11, 12, 13 and 14). What were the mathematical probabilities of an earthquake with magnitude above 7.0 happening in that randomly chosen interval?

Originally posted by GLontra
None of those were above 7.5

So, quakes of magnitude above 7.5 DON'T HAPPEN every month...

A quake of magnitude above 7.5 is a NOTICEABLE EVENT, even if there are no casualties.

It's VERY ODD that this quakes happened almost in the date predicted by the "188 days theory".

Originally posted by camus154

Originally posted by GLontra
None of those were above 7.5

So, quakes of magnitude above 7.5 DON'T HAPPEN every month...

A quake of magnitude above 7.5 is a NOTICEABLE EVENT, even if there are no casualties.

It's VERY ODD that this quakes happened almost in the date predicted by the "188 days theory".

Ugh. I see, so now you're raising the bar to 7.5? Isn't that convenient.

Doesn't matter. They also don't happen every 188 days either. From the same source, the last 7.5+ earthquake was July 6, 2011.

That's 258 days.

See how that works?