posted on Mar, 21 2012 @ 02:02 AM
People, please read: Saying the quakes must happen on exactly a 188-day cycle is really just saying that the window of time in which the quake must
occur is exactly a 24-hour window. Or, more specifically that the quake must occur in 188 days, +/- 12 hours either way. That is a completely
arbitrary window of time to use; there's no reason why it can't be, say, +/- 24 hours, which would constitute a 48-hour window of time the quake must
strike. As it happens, all 5 have struck on this cycle within a 48-hour window. The odds of that happening are astronomically low.
Now, to the naysayers who will no doubt try to claim these quakes happen often enough to always occur every two days, that is factually incorrect.
There are only 13-15 earthquakes per year of magnitude 7+. That means that M7+ earthquakes occur, on average, once every 24-28 days. To find a cycle
in which one always occurs within a two-day window every X number of days is not a coincidence, it's a pattern.
If we give the naysayers the benefit of the doubt and assume 15 M7+ quakes will occur in a given year, the odds of a M7+ quake occurring during any
arbitrary two-day period is 15/365 * 2 which is approximately an 8% chance. So you can pick any two days, and there will be an 8% probability that a
major earthquake will occur somewhere in the world on at least one of those two days. The odds of two separate events occurring on two different
arbitrary two-day intervals is the square of that, which is .64%, and gets exponentially lower for each additional successful event. We can't use the
first quake when calculating the odds, since that's our reference point, and we're predicting a cycle beginning from that point. So discounting the
first quake, and counting the remaining four, we get a probability of 0.004096%, or in other words, astronomically low.
So, the odds of a major earthquake occurring every 188 days, allowing for a window of +/- 24 hours, 4 consecutive times after some initial reference
quake, is 0.004096%. Yet it happened. Want to say there's nothing out of the ordinary about that?
edit on 21-3-2012 by SilentKoala because:
(no reason given)