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Its what they did on the TV series "The Event". Used Earthquakes to harass the POTUS for compliance.
Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by camus154
I provided the calculations, based on thirty years of historic data from the NEIC (with a link to the data), in my post here on page 4 of this thread.
The odds are actually about 1 in 5 for the example of a five-day window of time. So, around an 80% chance of being wrong.
Mikeedit on 20/3/12 by JustMike because: page number
Originally posted by HamSession
I was interested in the earthquake prediction theories.
Firstly my data source was from www.ngdc.noaa.gov... , secondly the data mining utility I use is called weka you can get it from here: www.cs.waikato.ac.nz... . The following data I'm going to post was only used with this data and I have only performed a cursory glance at the database.
What is very interesting is when you perform linear regression on this data set you get the following results
EQ_MAG_MS =
0.0003 * YEAR +
0.0036 * MONTH +
-0.0014 * DAY +
7.1753
With a accuracy of 99.63% with the training data set
Showing that magnitude and year are both positively correlated with magnitude and days are negatively correlated of course this is a simple least median squares method lets do a more complex method.
With a Gaussian radial bias kernel function (taking n dimension spaces and trying to fit a regression line to it)
SMOreg
+ 0.1675 * (normalized) YEAR
+ 0.0165 * (normalized) MONTH
- 0.1068 * (normalized) DAY
+ 0.7472
With an accuacy of 99.64% with the training set
Now there could be errors such as data mining leakage but this is pretty telling that on this data set,
earthquake magnitude goes up with the number of years.
Originally posted by Spotless
Can someone post a thread about that 188 days cycle ?
I can't seem to find it.
Originally posted by miniatus
I've seen far too many FAILED predictions for an accurate couple ( accurate sort of ) .. to matter to me in any way..
Even Geologists have been saying that the region is due for an earthquake, especially after the Japan event .. some said within 6 months, others have said it can happen even up to a year after and still be related to the original event.
My prediction? .. that's just the first.. I expect a stronger one closer to California pretty soon.. why? .. because it just makes sense..
Originally posted by Spotless
Can someone post a thread about that 188 days cycle ?
I can't seem to find it.
Originally posted by neddy
If you use google earth and overlay google sky near Mexico there is this.
at 5h 29m 57.75s, 16 09' 13.84"
What is that?
Originally posted by shauny
Originally posted by ProfATS
CNN saying a 7.9 between Acapulco and Mexico City. 186 days
This 188 day thing is UTTER madness !!!