reply to post by jjinsane1
I disagree with every point you make.
The US keeps its best cards close to its chest. It always has. Nobody knew about the space plane until it was on the launch pad. Nobody knew about
Hubbles 2 and 3 until the NSA gave them to NASA a couple of weeks ago. The US is the presumed world leader in weaponry. It has nothing to prove. Sure
the $80 billion main line weapons systems are public. They must be. But the US doesn't engage in show and tell.
China, on the other hand does have something to prove. They have an inferiority complex that they are eager to shed. They were all too happy to reveal
their J20 just to make a political statement. They brag about an untested carrier killer. They show their cards in cyber war and anti-satellite ops.
In the 1980s the US closed down its F15 based satellite killer missile in favor of electronic counter-measures. Nobody has ever heard a word about the
capabilities developed ever since.
I seriously doubt anybody is 50 years ahead of public technology. That is just blabber. I can see research that is 20 years ahead. That is all.
The only good point you make is that states do not often show their best cards. By the way. "Best cards" that shift power a great deal are always
the shortest lived advantages. Why? Because they invoke a strong response to counter them from the opponent. A slightly improved weapon will be
tolerated often. A rifle that works a little better may be accepted. A missile with a little more range may not provoke a program to develop a missile
that outdoes that one. But revolutionary technology gets countered fast. The US monopoly on nukes lasted how many years, even during peacetime? The
U-boats ruled the seas for how long? Heat seeking missiles had no effective counter-measures for how long?
I'll believe China is a true technology leader when their ability to innovate is comparable to the US, Germany, and Japan. Because thus far I've
seen little out of them except the ability to replicate.