'Mossad, CIA agree Iran has yet to decide to build nuclear weapon'

It is already known that American Intelligence Agencies have said and continue to say that Iran has no nuke program, they abandoned it years ago and there is no evidence that Iran is going to start the nuclear weapon program back up. And now it looks like Israels Mossad (their CIA) is in agreeance with US intel. Iran has no WMD and is not working on WMD, but that doesn't stop the warmongering politicians from running their mouths and the MSM repeat their warmongering with pretty anchorman/woman and flashy set designs. Cue the drooling from the MSM audience. Dee dee dee. Ron Paul has said time and time again that the CIA informs him that Iran is not working on a nuke.





www.haaretz.com...

Israel’s intelligence services agree with American intelligence assessments that there is not enough proof to determine whether Iran is building a nuclear bomb, according to a report published Sunday in the New York Times.

The newspaper said that senior American officials believe there is little disagreement between the Mossad and U.S. intelligence agencies over Iran’s nuclear program, despite the fact that Israeli political leaders have been pushing for quick action to block Iran from becoming what they describe as an existential threat.

The report further quoted one former senior American intelligence official who states that the Mossad “does not disagree with the U.S. on the weapons program,” adding that there is “not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts.”

I'm speechless from this OP. Can there be ANY truth at all to this? I kinda doubt it if we could stand inside the labs in Iran and view the work across the tables and computers..but that is beside the point isn't it?

If the Intelligence people can't even agree whether Iran has DECIDED to build one, then what the hell are we even talking about?? AT BEST a limited strike will kill thousands of Iranian. Some military, most not...and NONE of them really having done anything to be killed as an individual person. That is BEST CASE.

Far more likely, we start out like 2003 with delusions of grandeur relating to quick regime changes and easy butt kicking because the people...well...they love us. They NEED us..and they're all just waiting there and wondering why we haven't arrived yet.

How about......We DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING..and that includes the idiot in chief even OPENING HIS MOUTH about Iran any further...until those we pay billions a year can at least tell us with more than educated guess work whether a real Nuclear Weapons program even exists as we sit here today.

WITHOUT that program...even 1 death is unjustified, premeditated MURDER. Thousands don't make it anything other than the same murder done so many times as to puke. Obama signs off on a military action..so let HIM stand Murder 1 charges for it if he goes off like a Cowboy to play war in Bush's footsteps..and LIKE BUSH....is going with nothing but good thoughts and happy dreams for justification. NO!

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


The Intelligence people do agree, there are no nukes in Iran. This Iran setting does remind of Iraq back in 2003, hopefully we will not make the same mistake this time. Problem is Israel would be the ones who will strike Iran first, unlike the USA striking Iraq.

U.S. Agencies See No Move by Iran to Build a Bomb

www.nytimes.com...

WASHINGTON — Even as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said in a new report Friday that Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment program, American intelligence analysts continue to believe that there is no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb.

Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, according to current and former American officials. The officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America’s 16 intelligence agencies.

Awww.. and we were so full of agreement too. lol..... If this were as established a fact as would appear by your statement here, our military leaders would flat tell Obama to go blow it out his tanks..and resign if it came to that. At least ONE did under Bush, as some may recall. It was later we discovered that was the same time Cheney was banging the war drums up and down the White House hallways demanding Bush go bomb Iran before the end of term. Interesting how the backroom details play out on these things....

However... That is the whole problem here. I have personally read Confidential or Open Source intelligence material, as you and many others surely have, which state in ABSOLUTE terms that Iran has a program well under way. Other reports say they probably HAVE a weapon now and have for a few years. Yet more, like yours, say such a program doesn't even exist and whatever they have hollow mountains to hide isn't a Thermonuclear weapon.

So... Like I pointed out...fun when the people who are paid to be the best on Earth for this sort of thing all point to each other with stupid smiles and blank expressions. If the Intelligence Professionals have no intelligence among them, it's not unfair to say our President is acting entirely in Ignorance...and I'd be technically accurate with the description.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Unless you can share that material, it is moot.

That's kind of why I don't believe you.

Then again, I've seen strange stuff online that disappeared soon afterward.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


You've read Confidential or Open Source information regarding Iran and a nuclear weapons program? First of all, could you post these papers? Second of all, if the papers are still classified then you don't have access to them, unless they were classified and later deemed Unclassified, otherwise those papers are bogus. I've worked in the military intelligence field when I served in the USN and I'll tell ya, information labeled Confidential isn't all that its crack up to be, even Secret isn't all that great. The higher the classification the more information there is, usually because its so sensitive and TS reports don't usually get downgraded to Confidential.

Originally posted by The Sword
reply to post by Wrabbit2000

 

Unless you can share that material, it is moot.

That's kind of why I don't believe you.

Then again, I've seen strange stuff online that disappeared soon afterward.

Oh for God's sake. I write long posts and people complain. I take liberty in assuming facts we've ALL been watching, reading and going over at ATS and elsewhere from Wiki and material leaked from locations like Cryptome. ...and people complain about THAT.

Now we've reached the point in discussions here where we can't even reference material WIDELY available and commonly circulated in society and media in general, without it being suggested we made it all up from thin air and must prove it??

I give up. This runs along the same lines as saying the sky is blue to have some wise guy in the back row yell "Pics or it didn't happen!!!". I'm not spending half my day to relocate material read in bits and pieces over the course of several YEARS, which we've ALL seen together and at the same times. Ignorance is supposed to be a thing to deny, not hide behind while demanding proof of the self evident. Sources to verify? Try the morgue of the New York Times, L.A. Times, USA Today or the BBC. Source Material? well.... I mentioned that cryptic spot to look...you have Assange's collection of stuff..and I know of a few others. Find them or don't....we all have our fishing holes for good info and not all get shared. Nor should they HAVE to be on public domain information.


By the way... Wiki isn't the only thing on Earth and they are not even the best..... Cryptome and others are putting out new leaked material and formal government documents 7 days a week, 365 a year. Not EVERYONE goes by Assange's time table and pickiness to release what serves HIS interests best....and the material I reference for mutually exclusive intelligence reports over time *ARE PUBLIC DOMAIN* AND *ARE AVAILABLE* to anyone with half the interest to learn on this matter. What WASN'T public domain sure is now.....Stratfor was another source back when some paid serious money for the analysis they added to current events.

I've pointed you to the water.....I won't hand ladle it to drink.

Originally posted by Swills
reply to post by Wrabbit2000

 

You've read Confidential or Open Source information regarding Iran and a nuclear weapons program? First of all, could you post these papers? Second of all, if the papers are still classified then you don't have access to them, unless they were classified and later deemed Unclassified, otherwise those papers are bogus. I've worked in the military intelligence field when I served in the USN and I'll tell ya, information labeled Confidential isn't all that its crack up to be, even Secret isn't all that great. The higher the classification the more information there is, usually because its so sensitive and TS reports don't usually get downgraded to Confidential.

edit on 18-3-2012 by Swills because: (no reason given)

One finally clarification...and I'm logging off for the day. I can only take so much nitpicking and standing on semantics like it's a holy grail.

Confidential is the LOWEST OF THE LOWEST OF THE GARBAGE for Security classifications the United States Federal Government has that still requires more than some vague nod by a supervisor to obtain. Hell, Manning probably STILL holds a Confidential qualified level himself right there in prison, just so he can legally read his own case papers.

I say I've seen papers at that level. So have you. So has EVERYONE on this site who has even opened Wiki, Crypt, Stratfor or a number of other resources..JUST ONCE. I wasn't claiming some super access...quite the opposite and my point wasn't special knowledge but how this IS NOT AT ALL special information..and so, I'm just kinda flabbergasted it isn't common knowledge.

Or .maybe it is, and just is unpopular to note that the only thing we DO know about Iran is how much we DO NOT KNOW. Anyone claiming to KNOW something about that nation and isn't either Iranian and working for Tehran leadership...OR among that class of people who "don't exist" with a Mossad ID in their pocket, I think they're so full of it they float.

That was about the only point i was making.....but these days I need a book, with appendix and citations by the page full JUST to keep from being run down as a fabricator.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


I don't know why you are getting your panties all bunched up but it doesn't matter. Yes, there are leaked papers provided to us from Wikileaks (or other leaked source sites) but documents that are classified referring to Iran aren't aren't leaked or even hacked. Real classified information regarding Iran and their nuke program I have not seen on the net and thats because for it to be leaked someone like Manning has to be on the inside in order for them to leak it. Those with real security clearances don't leak information because of the consequences, like Manning is now experiencing. And Manning lost his clearance (which only went to Secret) as soon as he was detained. He does not, nor will he ever, hold a security clearance.

So with that, yeah, we want to see these papers that convinced you (right?) that Iran has a nuke program. Otherwise you're just talking with no evidence.

I have personally read Confidential or Open Source intelligence material, as you and many others surely have, which state in ABSOLUTE terms that Iran has a program well under way.

Show us this ABSOLUTE evidence you speak of.

On a side note, while I worked in the intelligence field during my USN career I worked specifically with Israel focusing on the Middle East, and I'll tell you from first hand experience Israel has the BEST intelligence pertaining to all things in the ME. So when Mossad says there are no nukes you should believe them, not some "leaked" info you read some where online.

I personally don't think they are working on nukes at the time. Even if they were, they weren't in a place where a rush would have them finished before a wore broke out.. but they weren't/aren't.

What is weird to me is why would the Mossad make this public and undermine their state when Israel wants to take Iran out.

Also.. it's agreement, not agreeance. Sorry that is just one of those obsolete bastardizations that really kills me. I am never a grammar nazi either.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


You made the claim that you've seen and read these intelligence reports. People don't believe you. It's on you to provide the source of your information. You don't post something without any reference as to what you're talking about as it were some "matter of fact" then complain about how people are attacking your claim. That's ridiculous.

YOU wrote a post. People challenged it. Now YOU provide the references you made, because that's the responsibility you take when you make a post with claims in it. Apparently it's NOT common knowledge, so go find your references and post them up. Nobody forced you to make a post referencing these sources of information that claim what you're saying they claim. YOU decided to post that, now source it.


AS for the topic at hand, the most recent intel reports seem to agree that Iran isn't at the stage of building a nuclear weapon yet. I think if that weren't the case, we'd be seeing military action from Israel by now. If they had credible intelligence suggesting Iran had a nuke, or were making a nuke, they wouldn't stand around idle. There would be a full scale effort to actively crack down on the operation completely.

This is not new info and has been the position for some time.

The issue with Iran is their enrichment program. The West / UN / IAEA are concerned about Iran's ability to build a nuke and the time frame that could occur in.

Civilian nuclear power plants, depending on type, only require 2% - 7% +/- enrichment. The research reactors require 12% - 19% +/- enrichment.

Currently Iran is enriching at 20% +/-, which is the minimum baseline for Highly enriched uranium. Nuclear weapons are generally enriched to 85% however 20% enrichment is enough to sustain a nuclear explosion / dirty bomb.

Ahmadinejad has stated they are capable of enriching up to 80%. Thats why the entire issue has been about inspectors and verification that their program is peaceful. Irans stall tactics on those inspections is whats causing the added tension.

The US has never stated Iran has the bomb.
The US has never stated Iran is working on building a bomb.
The US has always acknowledged Irans right to a civilian nuclear program.

reply to post by Xcathdra


20% IS NOT enough to create a nuclear bomb/nuclear explosion.

A dirty bomb, is not a nuclear explosion/nuclear bomb. You are being intentionally vague.
A dirty bomb could be created with 1% enriched uranium. At least attempt to be credible rather than shifty for whatever agenda you hold.
Also there is no 19% wall for research grade.

You have always said they are trying to make a bomb, you are shifting gears here.

Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
20% IS NOT enough to create a nuclear bomb/nuclear explosion.

Actually yes it is.

Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
A dirty bomb, is not a nuclear explosion/nuclear bomb. You are being intentionally vague.

Im not.. You can get radiation with both. The reason I stated both is because of the 20% level being the minimum.

Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
A dirty bomb could be created with 1% enriched uranium. At least attempt to be credible rather than shifty for whatever agenda you hold.

No agenda.. just educating people of the facts they choose to ignore for whatever reason or as you state agenda.

Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
Also there is no 19% wall for research grade.

Yes there is.

Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
You have always said they are trying to make a bomb, you are shifting gears here.

I have not. I have constantly stated the issue revolves around Iran and its ability to create a nuke. If you spent a bit more time reading posts and less time seeing only what you want, you would know my position.

Standford University - Enrichment
Federation of American Scientists - History and usage of uranium
World-nuclear.org
Enriched Uranium - wikipedia

Slightly enriched uranium - 0.9% - 2% - used in heavy water reactors
Low enriched uranium - 3% - 5% - used in light water reactors
Low enriched uranium - 12% - 19.75% - used in research reactors.

Highly enriched uranium - 20% and higher -

Highly enriched uranium (HEU) has a greater than 20% concentration of 235U or 233U. The fissile uranium in nuclear weapons usually contains 85% or more of 235U known as weapon(s)-grade, though for a crude, inefficient weapon 20% is sufficient (called weapon(s)-usable);[2][3] in theory even lower enrichment is sufficient, but then the critical mass for unmoderated fast neutrons rapidly increases, approaching infinity at 6%235U.[4] For critical experiments, enrichment of uranium to over 97% has been accomplished.[5]

Nuclear program of Iran - wiki

The controversy over Iran's nuclear programs centers in particular on Iran's failure to declare sensitive enrichment and reprocessing activities to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The remaining info in the last link discusses the issue with Iran - namely its enrichment program. It has always been about ability to build a nuclear weapon - specifically enrichment levels. For the IAEA it has always been about verification of Irans nuclear program to ensure nothing is being diverted to military applications. If you remember sometime back several options were floated to Iran concerning enrichment. From Iran exporting uranium for enrichment and then returned to Iran up to countries like Russia being responsible for enrichment for Irans program, etc etc etc.

All sides have stated Iran has a right to build / use nuclear power.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


The article claims that Iran is not building a weapon.

YOU say that they are.

The article has a link.

What you are saying does not.

Maybe you are just one of those brainwashed people that also fell for Iraq and Afghanistan?

they don't need a nuclear weapon if they under the Chinese/Russian nuclear weapon shield as an observer of the SCO.

their nuclear capabilities are strictly civilian and the American response is strictly political so as to not look weak.

Originally posted by yourmaker
they don't need a nuclear weapon if they under the Chinese/Russian nuclear weapon shield as an observer of the SCO.

their nuclear capabilities are strictly civilian and the American response is strictly political so as to not look weak.

I love the comments on Russia / China and protecting Iran. Do you really believe that Russia or China are going to launch nuclear missile attacks should Irans nuke program be targeted? China and Russia will only go so far before they cut Iran loose.

All politics are local and in the end Russia and China will look out for their own interests first, which is to say they aren't going to be dragged down when Iran goes.

reply to post by Xcathdra

The US has never stated Iran is working on building a bomb.
The US has always acknowledged Irans right to a civilian nuclear program.

You mean US "officials" no? Because Faux news and many GOP candidates spews this fright-hype on a weekly bases. It is a shame the truth gets so distorted. This is not a jab at you X, just a knee jerk reaction to the chaos.
This is what I think is behind it all, and Ex CIA Robert Baer speaks of this too.

reply to post by speculativeoptimist


I'm referring to US government officials yes. The US government has been consistent in that it acknowledges Irans right to develop a civilian nuclear program for energy etc.

If we look at the resolutions passed by the UN you will see it revolves around the enrichment issue. Thats where the argument comes in about ability to make a nuclear bomb. That is compounded by Iran stonewalling the IAEA, which just adds more fuel to the fire.

As far as members of Congress and their comments go, its no different than the Iranian government constantly stating death to America or death to Israel.

All politics are local.