M6.3 & M8.4 on the way

Well, just after things started calming down from the X5.4, the sun popped off another couple of strong M-class flares, a 6.3 and an 8.4. There were CMEs produced by these flares, and they are earth bound. Also, the proton event has been prolonged due to these flares. The magnetosphere sure is being put to the test lately, and it's far from over, the activity isn't supposed to peak until next year.

A strong M8.4 LDE solar flare has occurred at sunspot region 1429. The M8.4 flare peaked at 17:27 UTC and remained at that range until 17:44 UTC when we started to see a very slow drop.

This is a sign that there may be a CME associated with this flare.

Update 20:02 UTC March 10, 2012:
*The M8.4 flare that started at 17:22 UTC today has now fallen to the C9 range @ 20:02 UTC, 2hrs 40min after it began.

NOAA Space Weather Alerts From This Event:

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1722 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 10 1802 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 10 1822 UTC
Duration: 60 minutes
Peak Flux: 459 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 146 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1715 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 10 1744 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 10 1830 UTC
X-ray Class: M8.4
Location: N18W23
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Comment: No optical reports from ground stations. Location verified through GOES-15 SXI imagery
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1729 UTC
Comment: Associated with M8 event from Rgn 1429 (N18W23)
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


*The proton event that has been ongoing for the last few days has now been extended by NOAA and is now expected to rise in the coming hours due to today's M8.4 solar flare.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 2025 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 347
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 12 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 2025 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 59
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 11 1300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Comment: Recent M8 x-ray event from proton producing Region 1429 is expected to increase proton flux levels to above alert threshold levels.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact

mysolaralerts.blogspot.com...

Sunspot 1429 Flares Again

Sunspot 1429 is back at it again, this time with a strong M8.4 Solar Flare peaking at 17:44 UTC. This event triggered and R2 Level Radio Blackout and a Type IV Sweep Frequency Event was detected as well. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced and is most likely headed this way. Movie presentation is now below. You can also follow this website and all of the latest solar news on SolarHam Facebook by clicking "LIKE". ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1729 UTC Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1722 UTC Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 10 1802 UTC End Time: 2012 Mar 10 1822 UTC Duration: 60 minutes Peak Flux: 459 sfu Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

www.solarham.com...

Brace for impact once again folks, and as always, be sure to post your updates here for this event.

Thanks for the heads up.

space weather has this for Sunspot AR1429:

ANOTHER CME TARGETS EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection almost directly toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%.

We always knew that 2012 would be a year of increased solar flare activity, this is part of the Sun's natural cycle.

I'm not sure why everyone is getting so excited about this.

Sure, it might affect electronics and communications, but again, we knew it was coming,

When I was a boy scout, I learned an important motto. BE PREPARED.

Originally posted by violet
Thanks for the heads up.

space weather has this for Sunspot AR1429:

ANOTHER CME TARGETS EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection almost directly toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%.

edit on 10-3-2012 by violet because: (no reason given)

I looked there too, but they haven't updated it for the M8.4, so I left it out. Thanks for adding that.

reply to post by s0l4rn1ghtm4r3


I am going with my usual 180 degree rule and down grade them to 3.6 and 4.8 magnitudes .

Originally posted by babybunnies
We always knew that 2012 would be a year of increased solar flare activity, this is part of the Sun's natural cycle.

I'm not sure why everyone is getting so excited about this.

Sure, it might affect electronics and communications, but again, we knew it was coming,

When I was a boy scout, I learned an important motto. BE PREPARED.

Well, the circumstances change as time goes on, our magnetosphere is weakening and I'm almost positive the core is slowing down (thus, the weakening of the magnetosphere). There is just too much evidence to support that there is some kind of impending doom and I swear if anybody brings up "the rapture" I will find you and give you a thorough verbal lashing on how ridiculous religion is.

On the second hand, this world has gone to # and I feel it is on the verge of irreparable damage. A decent solar flare to wipe the slate clean isn't such a bad idea, I'm kind of hoping for it. I realize that it would probably be chaotic, and hard for a lot of people, but it will certainly take mankind a step back to realize we need to start moving in another direction. All is not lost, but I fear it soon will be.

Originally posted by Azadok
reply to post by s0l4rn1ghtm4r3

 

I am going with my usual 180 degree rule and down grade them to 3.6 and 4.8 magnitudes .

Well, actually, since the magnetosphere will barely have a chance to return to normal before another lashing of CMEs, they might appear stronger than they actually are.

But thanks for your opinion, it is appreciated.

Originally posted by s0l4rn1ghtm4r3

Originally posted by babybunnies
We always knew that 2012 would be a year of increased solar flare activity, this is part of the Sun's natural cycle.

I'm not sure why everyone is getting so excited about this.

Sure, it might affect electronics and communications, but again, we knew it was coming,

When I was a boy scout, I learned an important motto. BE PREPARED.

Well, the circumstances change as time goes on, our magnetosphere is weakening and I'm almost positive the core is slowing down (thus, the weakening of the magnetosphere). There is just too much evidence to support that there is some kind of impending doom and I swear if anybody brings up "the rapture" I will find you and give you a thorough verbal lashing on how ridiculous religion is.

On the second hand, this world has gone to # and I feel it is on the verge of irreparable damage. A decent solar flare to wipe the slate clean isn't such a bad idea, I'm kind of hoping for it. I realize that it would probably be chaotic, and hard for a lot of people, but it will certainly take mankind a step back to realize we need to start moving in another direction. All is not lost, but I fear it soon will be.

You should spend some time off the internet. Something like a month. I'm sure you'll see that there really is no reason to worry and even if there was there wouldn't be much you could do about it. I'm sure you'll feel much better about the world too. Just make sure you got survival gear in your home so that if and when SHTF you have something to shoot looters with, not to forget food&water.

It is magnitude M6 not an X class. I will sleep thru this one also

I just thought I'd start a thread for those who are interested in these events. I'm not saying this event is impending doom people, I just like to discuss these types of events, it's fun and informative.

Originally posted by Shred

Originally posted by s0l4rn1ghtm4r3

Originally posted by babybunnies
We always knew that 2012 would be a year of increased solar flare activity, this is part of the Sun's natural cycle.

I'm not sure why everyone is getting so excited about this.

Sure, it might affect electronics and communications, but again, we knew it was coming,

When I was a boy scout, I learned an important motto. BE PREPARED.

Well, the circumstances change as time goes on, our magnetosphere is weakening and I'm almost positive the core is slowing down (thus, the weakening of the magnetosphere). There is just too much evidence to support that there is some kind of impending doom and I swear if anybody brings up "the rapture" I will find you and give you a thorough verbal lashing on how ridiculous religion is.

On the second hand, this world has gone to # and I feel it is on the verge of irreparable damage. A decent solar flare to wipe the slate clean isn't such a bad idea, I'm kind of hoping for it. I realize that it would probably be chaotic, and hard for a lot of people, but it will certainly take mankind a step back to realize we need to start moving in another direction. All is not lost, but I fear it soon will be.

You should spend some time off the internet. Something like a month. I'm sure you'll see that there really is no reason to worry and even if there was there wouldn't be much you could do about it. I'm sure you'll feel much better about the world too. Just make sure you got survival gear in your home so that if and when SHTF you have something to shoot looters with, not to forget food&water.

I spend plenty of time off the net, I'm no doomtard if thats what you're thinking. I'm just interested in universal events, such as the star that gives us life on this rock of a planet.

And, I'm always prepared and I hope everyone else is as well. Great advice.