Originally posted by bilb_o
reply to post by Harte
We've not spoken before on the forum that's why you probably didn't understand why I used Drake's equation in an argument and moved to the
possibility of Alien visitaion. In my previous posts (in an other thread) I've discussed that given the odds of technological advanced races in the
universe their advances in technology would also change the possibility of them findind us and coming here. It's my mistake for delving in to the
argument without re-stating my previous point.
I don't think that the odds of some advanced technological alien society can be calculated.
You have to remember that species,
all species, eventually go extinct.
Maybe they rose and fell before life even came about here on Earth.
Plus just because a society is advanced, that doesn't mean that they would necessarily find some means of circumventing what we know factually about
speed limits in the universe.
Also, as I've pointed out many times before, even given
instantaneous travel, if an alien was tooling around from star to star and only spent
five minutes in each solar system to check it for life, after 650 thousand years, that alien would have visted only half of the solar systems in this
particular galaxy.
Obviously, 5 minutes isn't really gonna be long enough for him to check for intelligent life, so multiply that vast amount of time by whatever number
you think he would need.
I don't know about you, but this tells me that we would be quite hard to find, and almost certainly wouldn't be found randomly.
Originally posted by bilb_o
And you are welcome to explain why I seem to understand the term "fact"
For example, this so-called "fact":
There is a great deal of evidence of unknown events, encounters, physical structures which could be explained by terresterial AND extraterresterial
explanations with equal probability. (meaning the explanation has an equal likelihood of being terresterial and extreterresterial = we don't know
what the heck it is)
"Equal likelihood" is completely bogus. I mean, if seemingly hard to explain structures could be explained with "equal likelihood" by terrestrial
and extraterrestrial explanations with equal probability for each, then you could replace "extraterrestrial" with anything you want: magic, ESP,
miracles, whatever.
Since there is no evidence for any extraterrestrial intervention in the past, then you might as well say "it was done by the Loch Ness Monster."
The evidence for both cases is exactly the same.
Note I'm talking specifically about intervention in the past here and not about lights some folks may or may not have seen in the sky in the present
age.
Originally posted by bilb_o
If you are offended by my "big man in the sky" comment I suggest you to watch the "Invention of Lying" by Richard Gervais. Brilliant lad.
No, man, I'm not offended by that. I guess I'm a faithless heathen.
Harte