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The Flaw Inherent in Conspiracy Theories

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posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 06:50 AM
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Morning, ATS!

I need your help. I’ve been pondering the logic in conspiracy theories, and I’ve come up with a few ideas. Now, I’m not a logical person AT ALL, so I’m hoping you can help me critique my thinking. In a nice and polite way, of course.

Here goes:

1. The more complex the conspiracy theory, the more people required to carry it out. These people may be “in the know” concerning the conspiracy, or simply manipulated by others.

2. The more people involved in the conspiracy, the greater the chance for disclosure, either willingly or through mistake.

3. The more “evil” the conspiracy, the less willing people will be to go along with the flow. Whistleblowers!

I came to ATS for the paranormal and philosophical discussions. I was never really into conspiracy theories. I remember a few years back there was a huge discussion about Swine Flu and how the vaccine would wipe out the majority of people who received it. There were supposedly FEMA camps to detain the folks, mass graves being readied, etc. I read these threads and it scared me to death. It was my first glimpse into conspiracy theories.

Well, here we are a few years later. No mass graves in use, no huge population die-off, and in fact no more news about Swine Flu. This is just one example of unwarranted conspiracy theories. There are countless others.

Does this mean there are no genuine conspiracy theories? No, not necessarily. But I think the assertions of a major, world-changing conspiracy might just be paranoia on the part of some.

I do not want to offend anyone with this thread. I’m hoping you can help me refine my understanding and solidify my thinking. Thanks, ATS!




posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 07:18 AM
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Originally posted by smyleegrl

1. The more complex the conspiracy theory, the more people required to carry it out. These people may be “in the know” concerning the conspiracy, or simply manipulated by others.

2. The more people involved in the conspiracy, the greater the chance for disclosure, either willingly or through mistake.

3. The more “evil” the conspiracy, the less willing people will be to go along with the flow. Whistleblowers!



1. Not necessarily. It depends on the intelligence level of those involved.

2. The odds are what dictates that this is true IMO. You have to pick and choose your fellow conspiritors carefully.

3. Again, depends on the people involved. You have some pretty evil people walking the streets of the world these days. You don't want to underestimate the wickedness that some people resort to to get what they want.

When I first started lurking in the shadows here some 8 or 9 years ago I was more interested in UFO's than I am now. It didn't take me long to find out that there is more useless information here on that topic than useful. The only conpsiracy I see on that topic is the governments of the world not fully disclosing what they know. At first I thought they should, but after reading years and years of public opinion on the subject I began to see their reasoning in a clearer light. There are a few of us out there who could probably handle the truth, but the vast majority simply couldn't IMO. For the most part I just don't believe that the majority of us are intellecually capable of handling the truth of what is more than likely out there.

Besides which, we can't even get along with ourselves that well, much less members of another race of beings from another planet. Assuming of course that that is what these UFO's are carrying.

All in all, I think most conspiracy theorists make mountains out of molehills. There are a few exceptions of course that need very close scrutiny, JFK and 9-11 are the first ones that come to mind, but for the most part I think people are talking just to talk.

Myself, I'm sticking more to the social events, business, and relationships part of this board these days because those are the topics that are hitting close to home.

Good topic.





posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 07:18 AM
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Interesting thoughts and I would agree there is a degree of sensationalism across the website.

That said, one might argue that organised religion/s are a conspiracy - yet it meets the three criteria you list and is still an accepted part of life in this day and age.

Food for thought?



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 07:35 AM
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Well I agree with you, Many of the conspiracy theories do get needlessly complex and paranoid.

The simple explanation is usually the best.

Conspiracy is often more of a common mindset than an organized "evil genius" cabal. To outsiders like ourselves it can certainly look far more premeditated than it probably is. Jim Marrs made this observation too- likemindedness often looks like formal organization.

There are of course centralized organizations that do orchestrate events and dictate orders. Bilderberger meetings, CFR, AIPAC and the rest certainly do have deliberate agendas and do give marching orders. But I think their power ultimately rests more in the common mindset.

I do not see globalism as a genuine ideology. There is a natural human tendency towards linear thinking- existing trends are perceived to be inevitably continuing into the future, and a human tendency towards self-interest. Those in power see globalism as inevitable and, to the extent they see themselves able to increase the scope of their personal power through increased globalist control, they pursue it.

I believe we will soon see a sharp shift towards increased nationalism and decentralized power, driven by the collapse of an obviously flawed and illogical monetary system and increased infighting between clashing personal interests of those in power. The future of power, for those who seek it, will be nationalistic, not globalist.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 07:54 AM
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Did you personally take the swine flu jab? My point being there couldnt be mass die offs if a majority rejects it. The main flaw of "cobspiracy theories" is they are facts. Swine flu contained thimerasol and it was created in baxter labs to make billions, that is the facts. And have you ever considered that when the population finds out they have to scale back? The fema coffins and camps are still there. The globalists wok incrimentally.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 07:58 AM
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Originally posted by ComeFindMe
Interesting thoughts and I would agree there is a degree of sensationalism across the website.

That said, one might argue that organised religion/s are a conspiracy - yet it meets the three criteria you list and is still an accepted part of life in this day and age.

Food for thought?


Agreed. Although motive comes into play here, IMO. There are religious folks who genuinely believe in their religion. When these folk try to share that belief or convert others, I believe their intentions are good. Ex: sharing your faith to help others, save them from hell, what have you.

Of course, there are folks who use religion as a means to an end. Monetary gain, power, what have you.

Thank you for your excellent post!



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:01 AM
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Originally posted by Taupin Desciple

Originally posted by smyleegrl

1. The more complex the conspiracy theory, the more people required to carry it out. These people may be “in the know” concerning the conspiracy, or simply manipulated by others.

2. The more people involved in the conspiracy, the greater the chance for disclosure, either willingly or through mistake.

3. The more “evil” the conspiracy, the less willing people will be to go along with the flow. Whistleblowers!



1. Not necessarily. It depends on the intelligence level of those involved.

2. The odds are what dictates that this is true IMO. You have to pick and choose your fellow conspiritors carefully.

3. Again, depends on the people involved. You have some pretty evil people walking the streets of the world these days. You don't want to underestimate the wickedness that some people resort to to get what they want.

When I first started lurking in the shadows here some 8 or 9 years ago I was more interested in UFO's than I am now. It didn't take me long to find out that there is more useless information here on that topic than useful. The only conpsiracy I see on that topic is the governments of the world not fully disclosing what they know. At first I thought they should, but after reading years and years of public opinion on the subject I began to see their reasoning in a clearer light. There are a few of us out there who could probably handle the truth, but the vast majority simply couldn't IMO. For the most part I just don't believe that the majority of us are intellecually capable of handling the truth of what is more than likely out there.

Besides which, we can't even get along with ourselves that well, much less members of another race of beings from another planet. Assuming of course that that is what these UFO's are carrying.

All in all, I think most conspiracy theorists make mountains out of molehills. There are a few exceptions of course that need very close scrutiny, JFK and 9-11 are the first ones that come to mind, but for the most part I think people are talking just to talk.

Myself, I'm sticking more to the social events, business, and relationships part of this board these days because those are the topics that are hitting close to home.

Good topic.




Great points!

Can you elaborate on your first point, that it depends on the level of intelligence of the folks involved? Do you mean that people may be part of the conspiracy without even knowing it? I completely agree with that.

Thank you for your wonderful and thought-provoking post!



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:02 AM
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reply to post by smyleegrl
 

3.Nah,there are so many evil people on this planet,i think a lotta demons feel like failures.Throw enough money at some-one and convince them their own family/loved ones will be protected from the results,they will most likely go along.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:04 AM
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reply to post by seaside sky
 


Beautifully written.

I think you've hit the proverbial nail on the head.

Correlation does not imply causality.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:07 AM
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Ah... the Maturing of the Conspiratorial Mind.

Back about 1994...that is where i found out about the "secret government"... the NWO, Illuminati, Bildegergers, the Alien Agenda, the UN attempt at globilization, the dismantling of the US and it's Constitution, Camps, re-education...ad nauseum.

And like you, it scared me to death. Every headline was a covert action and attempt at carrying out this hidden agenda.

Of course, we are still here eating McDonald's on the way to the gun show to buy one more firearm so the government can't take them away and give them to the Anti-Christ.

So, at some point you and I and countless others realized that there are Conspiracy Theories and then there are "Conspiracy Theories." If all that NWO stuff was real... we wouldn't be here now...what has it been?...18 years since I heard my first call to "Patriotism" on a little wind up short wave radio.

All that being said, I do believe there are real Conspiratorial Efforts on the part of companies and banks and certain world leaders... usually for greed and international trade... not to establish a "utopian version of Orwell's 1984."

For instance, I still wonder about the connection between Congresswoman Giffords assassination attempt, the fellow up in NJ that was a former NASA head under Clinton that was found dead in a dumpster, the space industry rep that died backing out of her garage, and the fact that they were all tied to the boards of Duke and Progressive Energy... and they all died or nearly died just prior to Duke and Progressive merging into one of the largest power companies in the world... and that both are involved in experimental aircraft...READ DRONES... and experimental power sources for indefinite flight... and if memory serves me...Duke operates an experimental research airfield in Tennessee. And Giffords husband flew the "last" shuttle flight for NASA...

Anyway, I digress...

But the aim is the same...money, greed, and power. These have been the motivating factors for so many "humanitarian efforts"...incursions... and wars...along with subterfuge and political intrigue.

Frankly, probably 70% of the Conspiracy Theories are purely entertainment to me...Nibiru/ PlanetX/ Elenin I found quite entertaining. Same with Bohemian Grove... Denver international Airport...

But JFK assassination, 9/11, Oklahoma City, Operation Paper Clip and HighJump...the unionization of North America as an economic zone... I find these conceivable and intriguing.

Alas, that is why I return time and again to ATS... the news for people that don't trust the news.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:09 AM
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Originally posted by Raxoxane
reply to post by smyleegrl
 

3.Nah,there are so many evil people on this planet,i think a lotta demons feel like failures.Throw enough money at some-one and convince them their own family/loved ones will be protected from the results,they will most likely go along.


Another excellent point.

When I was writing number 3, I kept thinking of Nazi Germany, the US interment camps, the Bosnian conflict, Rhwanda, and others. It's very easy to go with the flow. I don't think the majority of the people are evil or have evil intentions. I think they're just scared.

Whistleblowers, then, will be few and far between.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:18 AM
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reply to post by AlreadyGone
 


Awesome post.

I did not mean to imply that all conspiracy theories were hogwash. I do believe there are people in powerful positions who easily manipulate those around them for profit or other agendas. Big business comes to mind.

It's difficult to know what to accept as genuine and what to reject as proposterous. How do you separate the two?



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:20 AM
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reply to post by Lord Jules
 


No, I didn't take the vaccine. However, several of my family members and friends did. We are all still here, alive and kicking. That's why I call foul on the conspiracy involved.

Thank you for your reply!



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 08:59 AM
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Originally posted by smyleegrl
Morning, ATS!

I need your help. I’ve been pondering the logic in conspiracy theories, and I’ve come up with a few ideas. Now, I’m not a logical person AT ALL, so I’m hoping you can help me critique my thinking. In a nice and polite way, of course.

Here goes:

1. The more complex the conspiracy theory, the more people required to carry it out. These people may be “in the know” concerning the conspiracy, or simply manipulated by others.

Like the conspiracy that overthrew the Czars,Julius Caesar, most coups and Hitlers rise to power?

2. The more people involved in the conspiracy, the greater the chance for disclosure, either willingly or through mistake.

keep records of people in the know that work for you and who know them. Compartmentalize your organization so only the top earners know the real plans and call the real shots. The peon foot soldiers just get some porridge(money,drugs women) and Teflon privileges.The higher up the peeking order the more porridge and Tyrant Teflon rights you get.Kill/defame/blackmail/ostracize or intimidate people that expose your business and its. Its not hard just expensive.

3. The more “evil” the conspiracy, the less willing people will be to go along with the flow. Whistle-blowers!

You can kill/imprison/blackmail a whistle-blower.

I came to ATS for the paranormal and philosophical discussions. I was never really into conspiracy theories. I remember a few years back there was a huge discussion about Swine Flu and how the vaccine would wipe out the majority of people who received it. There were supposedly FEMA camps to detain the folks, mass graves being readied, etc. I read these threads and it scared me to death. It was my first glimpse into conspiracy theories.

Well, here we are a few years later. No mass graves in use, no huge population die-off, and in fact no more news about Swine Flu. This is just one example of unwarranted conspiracy theories. There are countless others.

Its just a beta test. Testing how fast can it spread then making it better/ more efficient

Does this mean there are no genuine conspiracy theories? No, not necessarily. But I think the assertions of a major, world-changing conspiracy might just be paranoia on the part of some.

Like operation Northwoods,Operation fast and furious, Operation Hightower, Operation Mockingbird, MKULTRA,COINTELPRO,Operation paperclip, Tuskegee experiment. Those are some...

I do not want to offend anyone with this thread. I’m hoping you can help me refine my understanding and solidify my thinking. Thanks, ATS!

edit on 8-3-2012 by John_Rodger_Cornman because: (no reason given)

edit on 8-3-2012 by John_Rodger_Cornman because: (no reason given)



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 09:15 AM
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reply to post by smyleegrl
 


Perhaps the swine flu as an example is a simple distraction tactic used to divert attention away from other issues or laws that are being offered up in congress at the same time as said flu epidemic. Use one hand to distract while with the other picks the pocket of the people so to speak. Think of one hand as the government and the other hand as the Mainstream Media. Once the task is accomplished, the whole flu thing is no longer needed so everything back to normal, no news here on to the next sucker. Its like being fooled by a street hustler, with the 3 shells game, you know he is cheating you out of your money but you cannot figure out how. It's better not to think how they are manipulating you but why. Then you will find your way to the real issues. Remember FEAR is the greatest motivating factor in the human psyche.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 09:25 AM
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reply to post by ComeFindMe
 

I would agree that Religion is a conspiracy, and a very old one too. What people fail to understand is the covert way a Sovereign Nation must conduct it's business on an International Market. Another thing is, the best way to hide any TRUTH in between two lies, and what someone comes up with a real photo of a UFO, flood the internet with fake ones that look the same.
I am a Conspiracy Theorist. From way back, it began with Jack Kennedy and his brother Robert. That doesn't mean I see a conspiracy in everything, no, in fact it forces me to watch for them in everything. I take barely nothing at face value anymore, and have questions on anything I learn anew. Every fact is examined from several angles, and I am not afraid to be wrong.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 11:49 AM
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Originally posted by ThoughtIsMadness
reply to post by smyleegrl
 


Perhaps the swine flu as an example is a simple distraction tactic used to divert attention away from other issues or laws that are being offered up in congress at the same time as said flu epidemic. Use one hand to distract while with the other picks the pocket of the people so to speak. Think of one hand as the government and the other hand as the Mainstream Media. Once the task is accomplished, the whole flu thing is no longer needed so everything back to normal, no news here on to the next sucker. Its like being fooled by a street hustler, with the 3 shells game, you know he is cheating you out of your money but you cannot figure out how. It's better not to think how they are manipulating you but why. Then you will find your way to the real issues. Remember FEAR is the greatest motivating factor in the human psyche.


In the case of the Swine Flu issue, I really think it was the "conspiracy theorist" that created the fear. A flu strain was identified, dealt with, vaccinated against, and the threat was reduced. In the conspiracy world, the vaccination would kill us all. In fact, many still think that it will! When the flu issue subsided, and all of the predictions of theorists never came to pass, then it became a "false flag" or whatever could be thought up to keep the conspiracy alive. That's the fatal flaw of the conspiracy theory. No amount of evidence will the contrary will ever convince the theorist that they were simply wrong.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 12:05 PM
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Originally posted by Lord Jules
Did you personally take the swine flu jab? My point being there couldnt be mass die offs if a majority rejects it. The main flaw of "cobspiracy theories" is they are facts. Swine flu contained thimerasol and it was created in baxter labs to make billions, that is the facts. And have you ever considered that when the population finds out they have to scale back? The fema coffins and camps are still there. The globalists wok incrimentally.


The swine flu was blown out of all proportions in order to make millions for the pharmaceutical companies.

Watch the program "Codex Alimentarius" (I think it was called that). It was made in early 2000's, and the presenter said that TPTB were planning a mass health panic in 2009, and this was exactly what we got with the swine flu.



posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 12:39 PM
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Originally posted by smyleegrl

Can you elaborate on your first point, that it depends on the level of intelligence of the folks involved? Do you mean that people may be part of the conspiracy without even knowing it? I completely agree with that.



Meaning that you can have 10 people conspire to do something but you can also have 2 people do the exact same thing if they are that much smarter.

Quite frankly, the bigger the number of conspiritors there are the more I'm going to question how effective the whole operation is. In most cases, the larger something becomes the less effective it becomes.

Now, there is a difference between conspiritors and the one's carrying it out though. As you said, some people may be a part of it without even knowing it. In cases like that, I don't consider those people a part of the conspiracy because in their mind, they're not. They probably just answered some sort of employment ad and, in their mind, are simply doing a job for someone.

Soldier of fortune anyone?




posted on Mar, 8 2012 @ 01:34 PM
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I have been a conspiracy theory fan for many years and as I have gotten older I have found it usually to be more entertainment then fact. IMO most of what you will hear is so complex and outlandish it can become almost comical. I am reminded of that Simpsons episode when all the parents disappear and the children come up with the most outlandish theory as to why. Something to do with space vampires, when in the end the parents were just off have a little hanky panky.

I think your point about this kind of information leaking out is most valid. Humans are very bad a keeping secerets, especially big ones. If bill Clinton couldn't keep a BJ seceret then how can something like a NWO agenda to smash the independence of the US and all other nations be kept under raps for all these years. Also if such a group of elite does have so much control, why would they have ever allowed something like the Internet?

Now I always back this up with the admission that life is strange and anything is possible. Maybe we are controlled by a race of lizards, or maybe Obama is a space alien. Anything is possible, but most unlikely.

Let me finish my opinion by saying I do believe there are real conspiracies taking place in the US and rest of the world, but they are far from secret, in fact they are almost obvious and out in the open. Take big oil and the energy industry for example. It is no seceret that the oil industry does everything in it's power to keep the world using oil to power it's self. There are far better technologies and systems that are cleaner, cheeper, and more efficient, but are not as profitable.

If as a race of beings we put in as much energy into finding new ways to power our society such as solar, as we did to maintain our current system, we would clearly be in a much better state of affairs , socially, politically,environmentally, and economically.

It was not for a lack of stones that we grew out of the stone age!

While we spend our time arguing about some satanic plot to imprison the global population, the real and valid arguments that really effect us all are played out like a sitcom for our entertainment, and like all sitcoms we always know how it's going to end.



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