Next Big Earthquake In Less Than 40 Hours !

I'm feeling the LOVE in here tonight

It really amazes me,

if people on this site are representative of the public..

the ignorant and nasty outnumber the rest of us.

SAO/NASA ADS Physics Abstract Service

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Title: Whether solar flares can trigger earthquakes?



Authors: Jain, R.

Affiliation: AA(Physical Research Laboratory, Physical Research Laboratory (Department of Space, Govt. of India) Navrangpura, Ahmedabad, Ahmedabad, 380 009, India [email protected])

Publication: American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2007, abstract #IN33A-03

Publication Date: 05/2007

Origin: AGU

Keywords: 7526 Magnetic reconnection (2723, 7835)

Bibliographic Code: 2007AGUSMIN33A..03J


Abstract
We present the study of 682 earthquakes of ¡Ý4.0 magnitude observed during January 1991 to January 2007 in the light of solar flares observed by GOES and SOXS missions in order to explore the possibility of any association between solar flares and earthquakes. Our investigation preliminarily shows that each earthquake under study was preceded by a solar flare of GOES importance B to X class by 10-100 hrs. However, each flare was not found followed by earthquake of magnitude ¡Ý4.0. We classified the earthquake events with respect to their magnitude and further attempted to look for their correlation with GOES importance class and delay time. We found that with the increasing importance of flares the delay in the onset of earthquake reduces. The critical X-ray intensity of the flare to be associated with earthquake is found to be ~10-6 Watts/m2. On the other hand no clear evidence could be established that higher importance flares precede high magnitude earthquakes. Our detailed study of 50 earthquakes associated with solar flares observed by SOXS mission and other wavebands revealed many interesting results such as the location of the flare on the Sun and the delay time in the earthquake and its magnitude. We propose a model explaining the charged particles accelerated during the solar flare and released in the space that undergone further acceleration by interplanetary shocks and produce the ring current in the earth's magnetosphere, which may enhance the process of tectonics plates motion abruptly at fault zones. It is further proposed that such sudden enhancement in the process of tectonic motion of plates in fault zones may increase abruptly the heat gradients on spatial (dT/dx) and temporal (dT/dt) scales responsible for earthquakes.

adsabs.harvard.edu...


A very interesting read on the subject is the following.

Universality in solar flare and earthquake occurrence

L. de Arcangelis, C. Godano, E. Lippiello, M. Nicodemi

(Submitted on 8 Feb 2006)

Earthquakes and solar flares are phenomena involving huge and rapid releases of energy characterized by complex temporal occurrence. By analysing available experimental catalogs, we show that the stochastic processes underlying these apparently different phenomena have universal properties. Namely both problems exhibit the same distributions of sizes, inter-occurrence times and the same temporal clustering: we find afterflare sequences with power law temporal correlations as the Omori law for seismic sequences. The observed universality suggests a common approach to the interpretation of both phenomena in terms of the same driving physical mechanism.




Subjects:

Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech)

Journal reference: Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 051102 (2006)

DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.051102

Cite as: arXiv:cond-mat/0602208v1 [cond-mat.stat-mech]

arxiv.org...

You cant really say this solar flare had anything to do with this though. Vanuatu gets a quake about this size once a month for the last 6 months.. By this logic there would need to be a solar flare leading to each and every one of those earthquakes... Its affirming the consequent., a fallacy in logic.

If there was proof that a solar flare happened before each quake then maybe youd be on to something... But right now.. Just a coincidence.

Originally posted by Phage

So a typhoon caused the eruption of Pinatubo.
Ok.

Wow...ok, AGAIN, care to present to us all the peer-reviewed research papers which you have authored on this subject and which have been accepted by "reputable" journals of science?... Or are you going to find some other excuse to discredit REAL scientists?....

reply to post by Anim8tr


nup, I'm going for NZ again.. This tine the west coast, part of which will drop into te ocean, sending a two thousand ft Tsunami over the Aussie east / SE coast and well inland, killing millions, including the biutch that ruined my life...lol

Or I would settle for a freak 10 ft wave that dosent kill anyone but the bitch that ruined my life, while she's jogging on the beach..

Do we get a prize btw if we get one right? lol

Originally posted by bknapple32
You cant really say this solar flare had anything to do with this though. Vanuatu gets a quake about this size once a month for the last 6 months.. By this logic there would need to be a solar flare leading to each and every one of those earthquakes... Its affirming the consequent., a fallacy in logic.

If there was proof that a solar flare happened before each quake then maybe youd be on to something... But right now.. Just a coincidence.

Yet solar flares are not the only mechanisms which can trigger earthquakes, other type of solar activities can influence and trigger earthquake such as sudden fluctuations in Solar activity, high, or low levels of solar activity, and there are other mechanisms that can also trigger earthquakes such as supernova explosions, and other sources which can send a sudden flux of cosmic rays into the inner solar system when the Sun's activity is down.

Also, as I have explained before the Earth's magnetic field also is important in how strong, and whether or not earthquakes can be triggered by the Sun, or some other mechanism. Not to mention on whether or not the solar activity, such as a flare, is aimed at the Earth...

You see, you can't just dismiss an idea just because you are too hard headed to read the information provided to you on the subject.

BTW, I am not saying the solar flare we just had triggered any earthquakes, i am saying that they can trigger earthquakes and there is PLENTY of scientific evidence to back this.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


Not just growing proof but a lot of common sence goes into it too, which is why I am confused that people like Phage don't at least admit the outside possibility.

If a CME can effect the Magnetosphere when it hits the earth, and the Magnetosphere has a relationship with the molten core. Then it stands to at least reason that a sudden jolt in the core can send out shockwaves that will eventually be released through the weakest areas (the edges of the plates).

Seems like a reasonable idea to me anyway..

There may be other factors attributing to EQ and Volcanic activity though. The system is possibly stressing from the added gavitational forces while we are passing through the galactic plane at the moment and like, for about the next 400 years or so..lol

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse

Originally posted by Phage

So a typhoon caused the eruption of Pinatubo.
Ok.

Wow...ok, AGAIN, care to present to us all the peer-reviewed research papers which you have authored on this subject and which have been accepted by "reputable" journals of science?... Or are you going to find some other excuse to discredit REAL scientists?....

Uh...I think he was being sarcastic

6.7 vanuatu....excellent prediction..flagged

Originally posted by Ironclad


Not just growing proof but a lot of common sence goes into it too, which is why I am confused that people like Phage don't at least admit the outside possibility.

If a CME can effect the Magnetosphere when it hits the earth, and the Magnetosphere has a relationship with the molten core. Then it stands to at least reason that a sudden jolt in the core can send out shockwaves that will eventually be released through the weakest areas (the edges of the plates).

Seems like a reasonable idea to me anyway..
...

Yep, you are right, but Phage would not admit to such, nomatter how much common sense, or peer-reviewed research is presented. He made up his own research, which as far as I know has not been accepted by ANY reputable scientific journal, and I doubt they would accept it.

Phage's mind works only linearly, if he doesn't see a linear correlation it can't be true according to him.

]reply to post by ElectricUniverse


www.thesuntoday.org...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

NO they dont... you see I dismiss the idea because science disagrees with you.

Umm yeah back to topic....3 earthquakes hit the Vanatu Islands (Tafea Province) couple hours ago.Magnitudes of 7.1/ 7.1/ 6.9.
I stand correct.
Prediction hit like a truck.
Now where are all the people who were challenging my prediction?

reply to post by union_jack


OP predicted a 7.0 to 8.0 ... So he got it wrong ... and when you look at the stats there is a significant difference between a 6.7 and a 7.0

Also, the odds of predicting a 7.0 to 7.9 within any 40 hour period is 12-1 ... thats $12 for every one you bet

The odds of predicting a 6.0 to 6.9 in any 40 hour period is just over 3-2 ... thats $1.63 for every dollar you bet.

So not really that amazing ...

But yes, a prediction none the less ... I guess ...

reply to post by Anim8tr


Um yeah 6.7 isn't 7.0+ and no flare caused it.

In fact there's less than a 30% chance of there being a large earthquake at the same time there is an X flare...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Anim8tr


Actually, its a 6.7

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by Anim8tr
Umm yeah back to topic....3 earthquakes hit the Vanatu Islands (Tafea Province) couple hours ago.Magnitudes of 7.1/ 7.1/ 6.9.
I stand correct.
Prediction hit like a truck.
Now where are all the people who were challenging my prediction?

6.7.

You said 7 - 8.

You were wrong then. Right?

Reply to post by Phage

Facts and statistics don't matter around here. You of all people should understand that.


Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com

reply to post by khimbar


www.washingtonpost.com... .html

I'm sure that 7.1 falls in the 7.0 - 8.0 prediction margin.

Accurate prediction OP. S & F !

reply to post by GLPbannedME


Given your avatar and user name...I'm guessing you won't be around long.