Next Big Earthquake In Less Than 40 Hours !

Originally posted by PuterMan
Let's just get the facts straight for a minute. Yes the OP called it and I am not knocking that. Luck, judgement, fortune telling who cares. That out of the way how likely was a mag 7 there? Actually very likely. The stress potential for the area was for a 7.9. It just so happens that Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands and Ryukyu are the three areas for which I have done potential stress calculations.

This latest earthquake has only reduced that to a possible

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

mb = 6.2 ( 60) ML = 0.0 ( 0) mblg = 0.0 ( 0) md = 0.0 ( 0) MS = 0.0 ( 0)

Correct. Very likely a 6.9. Never count your chickens before the tensor solutions

Oops, oh deary me looks like it is a 6.8. EMSC just in.

Magnitude Mw 6.8
Region VANUATU
Date time 2012-03-09 07:09:54.0 UTC
Location 19.13 S ; 169.69 E
Depth 30 km
Distances 1935 km NE Brisbane (pop 1,843,392 ; local time 17:09:54.1 2012-03-09)
927 km W Suva (pop 199,455 ; local time 19:09:54.1 2012-03-09)
212 km SE Vila (pop 35,901 ; local time 18:09:54.1 2012-03-09)
62 km NE Isangel (pop 1,437 ; local time 18:09:54.1 2012-03-09)
Global view
Source parameters reviewed by a seismologist

www.emsc-csem.org...

Potsdam fast moment tensor 6.7

geofon.gfz-potsdam.de...

Bye bye prediction. Close though.

reply to post by Phage


I agree with you Phage.. it was just coincidence. I don't believe anyone will be able to predict earthquakes based on solar activity.. I'm not a hater by the way.

reply to post by Anim8tr


hello there, my names justin and today is day 1 where i am a registered user, so i read here that you predicted a earthquake of 7.0 or higher to occur with 40 hours or less.
well your right !!!
here's the youtube link on the latest update !

www.youtube.com...

be sure to check the link

reply to post by PuterMan


your information is incorrect.. on the USGS website it is still listed as a 7.1 USGS the time of Update was = Fri Mar 9 8:50:01 UTC 2012..

reply to post by GrouchyGrouch

The last 5 big quackes had big CME's preceding them.

Incorrect.
The 5 7+ quakes previous to this one had no significant flares or geomagnetic activity preceding them.

2011 09 03 225540.92 -20.67 169.72 185 7.0
2011 09 15 193104.08 -21.61 -179.53 644 7.3
2011 10 21 175716.10 -28.99 -176.24 33 7.4
2011 10 23 104122.93 38.72 43.51 16 7.1
2011 12 14 050459.27 -7.56 146.80 140 7.1
2012 01 10 183705.75 2.43 93.22 19 7.2
2012 02 02 133444.66 -17.83 167.11 55 7.1

reply to post by krayzednative


Welcome to ATS. Dutchsince is NOT a credible source or anything.

Please see the moment tensor solutions for this earthquake. It is no longer a 7.1

Originally posted by Morpheas
reply to post by Phage

 

I agree with you Phage.. it was just coincidence. I don't believe anyone will be able to predict earthquakes based on solar activity.. I'm not a hater by the way.

You should, because you can.
It's not an exact science, like predicting the hurricans.
But it is possible.

Originally posted by Phage

Originally posted by Anim8tr

There are many theories out there concerning the relation of solar activity to earthquakes, but no real evidence other than statistics.

The statistics show that there is no evidence.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Here you go again Phage?... Care present to us all the scientific research on the subject which you have submitted and which has been accepted by any "reputable" journal of science?...

As other members and I have shown REAL scientists differ in opinion, and their evidence trumps any lie Phage here wants to make up yet again...

I was kind for long enough trying to show Phage where his research is wrong, yet like always he doesn't like to listen to anyone. Not even REAL scientists...

SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H & E.
Vol.3. 2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2008 ISBN 978-9952-451-01-6 ISSN 2070-0334
217
ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES: LONG-TERM FORECAST

*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
*Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov,
**International Academy of Science H&E (Austria, Innsbruck)

It has been determined that in the period of solar activity increase (11-year
cycles) there increase seismic and volcanic activities in the compression zone of
Earth and at the same time there decreases the activity in the tension zones of Earth.
On the basis of the discovered stable 11-year and 22-year cyclicalities in the seismic and volcanic activities and their high correlation with solar activity there has been made the long-term forecast until 2018. The next maximum of seismic and volcanic activity with very high amplitude for the compression zones of Earth is forecasted for the period 2012-2015.

www.khalilov.biz...

BTW, if you want to know who Elchin Khalilov (Khalilov E.N.) is here are a few facts that anyone can corroborate...

Dr.Prof. Elchin Khalilov (Azerbaijani: Elçin Xəlilov (born On April, 26th 1959, Baku, Azerbaijan) is a famous scientist in the sphere of geodynamics, seismology and tectonics.

en.wikipedia.org...

Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes

John F. Simpsona, b

a Goodyear Aerospace Corporation, USA

b University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, USA

Received 7 November 1967; revised 16 December 1967. Available online 28 October 2002.

Abstract

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.

linkinghub.elsevier.com...

reply to post by Phage


You have made this statement repeatedly within the last 3 pages. Any new information?

A relationship between solar activity and frequency of natural disasters in China
Journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Publisher Science Press, co-published with Springer-Verlag GmbH
ISSN 0256-1530 (Print) 1861-9533 (Online)
Issue Volume 20, Number 6 / November, 2003
DOI 10.1007/BF02915516
Pages 934-939
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Sunday, June 08, 2008

Wang Zhongrui1 , Song Feng2 and Tang Maocang1

(1) Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 730000 Lanzhou
(2) Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Received: 7 September 2002 Revised: 6 June 2003

Abstract The relationship between the length of the solar cycle, a good indicator of long-term change in solar activity, and natural disasters (drought, flood, and strong earthquakes) in China during the last 108 years is analyzed. The results suggest that the length of solar cycle may be a useful indicator for drought/flood and strong earthquakes. When the solar activity strengthens, we see the length of the solar cycle shorten and more floods occur in South China and frequent strong earthquakes happen in the Tibetan Plateau, but the droughts in East China as well as the strong earthquakes in Taiwan and at the western boundary of China are very few. The opposite frequencies occur when the solar activity weakens. The current study indicates that the solar activity may play an important role in the climate extremes and behavior in the lithosphere.

www.springerlink.com...

Solar activity and global seismicity of the earth

Journal Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics
Publisher Allerton Press, Inc. distributed exclusively by Springer Science+Business Media LLC
ISSN 1062-8738 (Print) 1934-9432 (Online)
Issue Volume 71, Number 4 / April, 2007
Category Proceedings of the XXIX All-Russia Conference on Cosmic Rays
DOI 10.3103/S1062873807040466
Pages 593-595
Subject Collection Physics and Astronomy
SpringerLink Date Wednesday, May 16, 2007

S. D. Odintsov1, G. S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi1 and K. Georgieva2

(1) Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Troitsk, Moscow oblast, 142190, Russia
(2) Laboratory of Solar—Terrestrial Coupling, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sophia, Bulgaria


Abstract Results of studying the character and possible succession of cause-effect relations (in going from a disturbance source on the Sun to a response in the lithosphere in the range of periods from several days to the 11-year solar cycle) have been presented. It has been indicated that the maximum of seismic energy, released from earthquake sources in the 11-yr cycle of sunspots, is observed during the phase of cycle decline and lags 2 yr behind the solar cycle maximum. It has been established that the maximum in the number of earthquakes directly correlates with the instant of a sudden increase in the solar wind velocity.

Original Russian Text © S.D. Odintsov, G.S. Ivanov-Kholodnyi, K. Georgieva, 2007, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk. Seriya Fizicheskaya, 2007, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 608–610.

www.springerlink.com...

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by GrouchyGrouch

 

The last 5 big quackes had big CME's preceding them.

Incorrect.
The 5 7+ quakes previous to this one had no flares or geomagnetic activity preceding them.

2011 09 03 225540.92 -20.67 169.72 185 7.0
2011 09 15 193104.08 -21.61 -179.53 644 7.3
2011 10 21 175716.10 -28.99 -176.24 33 7.4
2011 10 23 104122.93 38.72 43.51 16 7.1
2011 12 14 050459.27 -7.56 146.80 140 7.1
2012 01 10 183705.75 2.43 93.22 19 7.2
2012 02 02 133444.66 -17.83 167.11 55 7.1

edit on 3/9/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Yes they did, but it's not always a big flare or a few days before the quake. Sometimes its one or two weeks before. It's not about the size of the flare, it's about the build up of geomagnetic energy and the release of it.
And those are not the big ones i was refuring to, but no big deal.

reply to post by descendedstar

your information is incorrect

No sorry YOU are incorrect. What is on the USGS web site is not relevant and often gets left at the original magnitude for 7 days and gets reduced in the QED listing on the 8th day. In fact with this size of quake it often does not get changed at all, however this one I believe.

The initial predictions are not important. The tensor solutions are. If EMSC have 6.8Mw and Geofon have 6.7 Mw on the centroid tensors you can bet USGS will be down there with them when the calculations have been done.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse


The Russians have always said there is a link.

If you read through those papers carefully you will find they do not prove it and there are myriad circular references.

Note however that they refer to the Solar Cycle and NOT the flares.

reply to post by GrouchyGrouch

Sometimes its one or two weeks before.

So with an average of more than one 7+ a month that makes the odds pretty good.
Shower syndrome in action.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse

Originally posted by Phage

Originally posted by Anim8tr

There are many theories out there concerning the relation of solar activity to earthquakes, but no real evidence other than statistics.

The statistics show that there is no evidence.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Here you go again Phage?... Care present to us all the scientific research on the subject which you have submitted and which has been accepted by any "reputable" journal of science?...

As other members and I have shown REAL scientists differ in opinion, and their evidence trumps any lie Phage here wants to make up yet again...

I was kind for long enough trying to show Phage where his research is wrong, yet like always he doesn't like to listen to anyone. Not even REAL scientists...

SCIENCE WITHOUT BORDERS. Transactions of the International Academy of Science H & E.
Vol.3. 2007/2008, SWB, Innsbruck, 2008 ISBN 978-9952-451-01-6 ISSN 2070-0334
217
ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES: LONG-TERM FORECAST

*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
*Moscow State University named after M.V.Lomonosov,
**International Academy of Science H&E (Austria, Innsbruck)

It has been determined that in the period of solar activity increase (11-year
cycles) there increase seismic and volcanic activities in the compression zone of
Earth and at the same time there decreases the activity in the tension zones of Earth.
On the basis of the discovered stable 11-year and 22-year cyclicalities in the seismic and volcanic activities and their high correlation with solar activity there has been made the long-term forecast until 2018. The next maximum of seismic and volcanic activity with very high amplitude for the compression zones of Earth is forecasted for the period 2012-2015.

www.khalilov.biz...

BTW, if you want to know who Elchin Khalilov (Khalilov E.N.) is here are a few facts that anyone can corroborate...

Dr.Prof. Elchin Khalilov (Azerbaijani: Elçin Xəlilov (born On April, 26th 1959, Baku, Azerbaijan) is a famous scientist in the sphere of geodynamics, seismology and tectonics.

en.wikipedia.org...

Solar activity as a triggering mechanism for earthquakes

John F. Simpsona, b

a Goodyear Aerospace Corporation, USA

b University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, USA

Received 7 November 1967; revised 16 December 1967. Available online 28 October 2002.

Abstract

Solar activity, as indicated by sunspots, radio noise and geomagnetic indices, plays a significant but by no means exclusive role in the triggering of earthquakes. Maximum quake frequency occurs at times of moderately high and fluctuating solar activity. Terrestrial solar flare effects which are the actual coupling mechanisms which trigger quakes appear to be either abrupt accelerations in the earth's angular velocity or surges of telluric currents in the earth's crust. The graphs presented in this paper permit probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, and when used in conjunction with local indicators may provide a significant tool for specific earthquake prediction.

linkinghub.elsevier.com...

im giving you a thumbs up to standing up to this phage guy.... he seems to be ignorance's source

There are lots more of peer-reviewed research than those I presented.

Phage, like always, is going to try to claim that the research contradict each other because when there is both high and low solar activity earthquakes can be triggered by the Sun or other sources.

You see, Phage is only looking at this topic linearly, he thinks that if the Sun can trigger earthquakes then ONLY when the Sun activity is at the highest should earthquakes be triggered. But there is more to this topic than just the linear fixation of Phage. The Earth's own magnetic field also has a say on the matter, and whether it is strong or weak will influence how strong and when an earthquake can be triggered. Not to mention that there are many sources, even from outside the Solar System which have the ability to trigger earthquakes.

I have tried to explain this to Phage, but his linear mind cannot fathom this fact.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

and their evidence trumps any lie Phage here wants to make up yet again...

Does it?

Read them for yourself and do not assume that because they are published somewhere that they are right.

reply to post by GrouchyGrouch

Just got off the line from Vanuatu, this is a minor earthquake, and life is as normal as it can be. Very common in that part of the world.

reply to post by ElectricUniverse

Yes.
We've been through this more than once.
Your various sources say that sometimes more solar activity causes more earthquakes and sometimes less solar activity causes more earthquakes and sometimes it causes flooding and sometimes it causes droughts. They all seem to say something different.

Not much use for predicting anything.