"1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar MegaStorm by 2020"

interesting article and researchers' consensus..

www.wired.com...



- most gigantic solar event in recorded history (so far) is the Carrington event of 150 yrs ago

- 12% chance of Earth experiencing a rival to 1859 event within roughly the next decade or by 2020

- damage would be 'catastrophic' and in the trillions of dollars collaterally



“It’s like being able to see a cyclone coming but not knowing the wind speed until it hits your boat 50 miles off the coast.”
- Robert Rutledge of NOAA/National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center

So there's an 87.5% chance that nothing happens?

I like those odds.

Im still driving.

We had an X5.4 about an hour ago. Can someone post up? SDO has a photo.

thx

For some reason whenever I try to put pics it shows only an External Image icon,

so i usually embed YTs compulsively (sorry)...

reply to post by BiggerPicture


Don't you just love mathematical odds that get thrown around of the chance of "such and such" armageddon type calamity happening to the earth !

In this one article alone we have

1 in 8 Chance ...

The Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance ...

... might have a greater than 10 percent chance ...

of some type of astronomically based catastrophe trashing the earth within the next 8 - 10 years.

Talk about plucking figures out of the air all for the sake of scaremongering.

Perhaps someone would care to show the mathematical models and/or statistical equations used to generate such alarming values ... and whilst you're at it, also supply ALL the hard-valued and statistically accurate parameters that were fed into the equations ... not just guesswork or very rough approximations.

reply to post by BiggerPicture


Thanks much.

This phone doesnt allow more than simple txt.

www.spaceweather.com...

^ They have some awesome new pic of the sunspot(s) on front page at the moment

spaceweatherphone.com...