Oh yeah!, X-5 flare just happened.. May be earth directed, Bring it Sun!!!

Originally posted by intrptr
This particular warning has ended but was interesting...

flare data timeline

That is a more worrisome concern.....

reply to post by Bluesma


Very troubling indeed.

Communications are being reported down all over, probably from the previous X-flare. Now, with a double whammy coming in, the X5.4 and X1.3, things could get bumpy down here for us.

The photon flux alone caused the XM satellite to glitch for a few seconds yesterday. I could only imagine what will happen when the particle storm hits.

SnF for OP- really cool stuff.Been reading this of and on all day andI'm really impressed with a lot of the information you folks put out. Being a reasonably intelligent, sci-fi loving and always willing to learn I really love this stuff along with te other forums that I read into. My thanks to all of you ATSers who have provided intelligent and informative information- kudos on your excellent work!!
If I"m reading and analyzing the megaload of info correct I believe a CME would be a three dimensional flowering-type bloom from the sun. If that's true and it is expanding in all directions of the cartesian coordinates system (XYZ) then my impression is that any CME originating from ± 45° from straght line to the sun would affect earth: ist that correct?
On other question: can anyone tell what protion of the earth will be facing the sun at the time of the CME arrival?

Thanks again to all for your input!!

reply to post by PaTommyJ


Well, the last X-flare struck in about 17 hours, so, although they are claiming it wont hit until tomorrow, it could be sometime within the next couple hours.

This is just my opinion though, so take it with a grain of salt. If I'm correct, it'll be the United States facing the sun at the time it hits.

Originally posted by PaTommyJ
SnF for OP- really cool stuff.Been reading this of and on all day andI'm really impressed with a lot of the information you folks put out. Being a reasonably intelligent, sci-fi loving and always willing to learn I really love this stuff along with te other forums that I read into. My thanks to all of you ATSers who have provided intelligent and informative information- kudos on your excellent work!!
If I"m reading and analyzing the megaload of info correct I believe a CME would be a three dimensional flowering-type bloom from the sun. If that's true and it is expanding in all directions of the cartesian coordinates system (XYZ) then my impression is that any CME originating from ± 45° from straght line to the sun would affect earth: ist that correct?

On other question: can anyone tell what protion of the earth will be facing the sun at the time of the CME arrival?

Thanks again to all for your input!!

Well if I interpreted the model I saw correctly, it should get to earth about 8:00 am GMT/UT so you'll have to calculate sunrise for your own area. So I'd say Western Europe and the Eastern Atlantic will be facing the sun at or around arrival time.

It's kinda hard to tell because the model has a 1 hour manual progression if you pause it and the earth is just a little bigger than this "o" on a map of a huge amount of space...so 8:00 am GMT/UT is a guess.

Probably why the G summit was being held at Camp David. Hmm, so did Obama and the crew hunker down underground? Now that would be interesting to know. Maybe that had before knowledge.

From Solarham Facebook update:

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 08
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

reply to post by Damrod


Thanks guys. I was watching the models and that was the only thing I couldn't figure out- what face of the earth would be impacted. I'm in the very northeast corner of Pennsyltucky here, and if my conversion from GMT is correct it should be around 3:00 AM. Does anyone think that, since that time is predawn for this area, it might be worthwhile to get my rear out of bed to check it out?? Aurora's and such? never seen one and would really like to...

What's the big deal? Xm radio might hiccup for a few seconds, regular radio might be staticy? Don't see what the big deal is?

Originally posted by imawlinn
What's the big deal? Xm radio might hiccup for a few seconds, regular radio might be staticy? Don't see what the big deal is?

edit on 7-3-2012 by imawlinn because: (no reason given)

Well, it seems the effects are being forecasted as we go along here, and they are more and more problematic as time goes on; Satelites being out is going to effect many things, if you think about it- like your phone, for example?
But I think it is a big deal that the people on the space station are in danger, for example.....

**UPDATE**

The new CME Forecast track has been released, its a big one.

iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov...

This eruption hurled a bright CME into space, shown here in a movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Although the CME is not squarely Earth-directed, it appears direct enough to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 8-9. This would add to the magnetic unrest already underway at high latitudes.

The flare also accelerated energetic protons toward Earth, triggering an S3-class solar radiation storm, in progress. Such a storm is mainly a nuisance to satellites, causing occasional reboots of onboard computers and adding noise to imaging systems. Solar flare alerts: text, phone.

[url=http://www.swpc.noaa.gov...]

Originally posted by s0l4rn1ghtm4r3
**UPDATE**

The new CME Forecast track has been released, its a big one.

iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov...

HOLY HIT!

If a bigger one came by, X6.9 on August 9, 2011, and nothing happened, why so much hype about this one?

and a X6.5 on December 6, 2006 and an X9.0 on December 5, 2006, and were still here.

reply to post by Bluesma


I Know.

First open and second Hit.

Originally posted by JibbyJedi
How do the astronauts on the ISS handle such things? They have protection but only so much.

I did feel a disturbance in the Force today, I guess it was about this.

The blast peaked on March 7th at 00:28 UT. Radiation storms and radio blackouts are possible.

It's not a "kill shot" that so many apparently are hoping for in here.

More like hoping for a 'reset' shot I suspect....

Originally posted by PageAlaCearl
If a bigger one came by, X6.9 on August 9, 2011, and nothing happened, why so much hype about this one?

and a X6.5 on December 6, 2006 and an X9.0 on December 5, 2006, and were still here.

edit on 7-3-2012 by PageAlaCearl because: (no reason given)

See, when the flares are not facing earth (like those other ones) it doesn't effect us.
When they are facing earth , they effect us.

Well, Hubble went into lockdown mode, and on standby.. (a few others did too). keeps the circuits from being fried...

I heard that if three X class flares hit close together, it could cause harm to us on the ground.... And what is VERY odd is the NOAA site to get a map visual of the hit regions is DOWN... (Never seen it down for years, and now its down during a very important event?? hmm)

www.swpc.noaa.gov...


You can go here though, and see the regions affected:
NOAA Helios