Severe Weather Forecast for Friday 3/2/12

Originally posted by crazydaisy
reply to post by gemineye

 

I just saw that Central Ky and Tenn has
a Tor-Con 9. I thought it only went to
8. Stay safe.

I was also under the impression that it only went to 8. Not sure if they've recently changed it or what.

I'm not too far away from Lexington, Ky and one of the main guys from the weather channel is there today, waiting for all of this stuff to roll in. They usually don't even MENTION Kentucky on the weather channel, so for the guy to be there, they must be expecting something huge.

Also, our governor warned Kentucky residents to be prepared for this one. I've NEVER heard of the governor warning people of storms before... at least not here. I love storms, but this has me on edge. I picked my kids up from school early today. Every county around us was dismissing early because of storms, but the morons at the board of education in my county would rather keep the kids in school during a tornado, apparently.

* AT 1244 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
OOTELWAH...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHATTANOOGA. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

@TWCBreaking Trained spotter reported a #tornado just W of I-75 in Ooltewah, TN. Take cover in Cleveland, TN. Alert/radar: wxch.nl...

@TWCBreaking Funnel cloud sighted near Galatia, IL (Saline Co.). Cell now in S. Hamilton Co. Alert/radar: wxch.nl... #severe

New Large PDS Tornado Watch out...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 900
PM EST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DAYTON OHIO TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...WW 57...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER SRN IL AND SERN MO ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ATTENDANT TO
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

This is definitely not good. I have family in Hopkinsville, KY and Clarksville, TN. I hope for this to not take too many lives tonight, stay safe everyone. Do not play around, this is incredibly dangerous! TOR:CON Index I thought only went to an 8 but now it is a 9. 90% chance of tornado within 50 miles for Central Kentucky and Tennessee.

New Tornado Warning for S. Illinois as well...

TORNADO WARNING
ILC003-153-181-MOC031-201-021845-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0036.120302T1803Z-120302T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1203 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ALEXANDER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
WESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST.

* AT 1201 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STRONG ROTATION
NEAR WHITEWATER...NORTH OF CHAFFEE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
POSSIBLE TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

IN ADDITION...GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
SCOTT CITY...CAPE GIRARDEAU...KELSO...OLIVE BRANCH...TAMMS...
MOUNDS...DONGOLA...EAST CAPE GIRARDEAU...COMMERCE...THEBES...MILL
CREEK...PULASKI AND ULLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...STRONG ROTATION IS REPORTED. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

www.severestudios.com...

Live stream with significant damage from the EF-4 tornado that went south of Hunstville earlier today.

reply to post by 1ibl2ibs


Thanks for keeping up with updates and posting them.

@Alabamas13: University of Alabama will suspend normal operations and classes, and activities are canceled as of 2 p.m.

I am glad to see so many schools and Universities shutting it down in advance of the storms.

reply to post by nixie_nox


every body talks about the weather,but no one does any thing about it! - mark twain

OR DO THEY?(haarp!)

OK, I'm looking at the National Weather Service SPC meso analysis currently. This situation is getting very dangerous. Storm relative helicity (a measure of the twisting motion of wind in the atmosphere) is in the 500 m2/s2 across southern Illinois, and the significant tornado parameter is now 7 across western Kentucky, with 2,500 joules of CAPE (convective available potential energy). As that area of helicity moves into western Kentucky where there is so much instability, expect RAPID tornadic supercell development. Supercell composite is now 20 in the area. If you live in western Kentucky or have friends and family there, alert them now.


www.spc.noaa.gov...#

reply to post by Drew99GT


Not good at all. My aunt and cousins live in Hopkinsville which could be considered either Western or Central Kentucky since it is west of Bowling Green. They are hopefully aware of the situation.

I am so thankful for the ATS family. You guys get the info out faster than the news sometimes.

The sun is shining here in Middle TN, NOT A GOOD THING. The wind is very strong, and the leaves are blowing in a circular pattern. If you stand outside for more than a few moments you can just feel the power in the air.

Please everyone, call a friend and tell them to keep their eyes on the skies and ask them to call another friend. I have a bad feeling about this one.

Tornado warning for Knoxville

Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
TNC093-155-021845-
/O.NEW.KMRX.TO.W.0023.120302T1819Z-120302T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KNOX COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
SEVIER COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 145 PM EST

* AT 114 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...LAKE FOREST...KIMBERLIN HEIGHTS...MALONEYVILLE...MASCOT
AND KODAK.

I hope no one minds that I am not properly sourcing these. Trying to get them posted ASAP.

Southern Indiana/northwestern Kentucky is under the gun big time now as the warm front associated with this storm system is draped across that area; that is where surface winds are backing the most (ie they're from the east southeast) and jet stream winds are out of the southwest. That change of wind direction and speed with height is what produces these supercell type thunderstorms with rapidly rotating updrafts. As the broken line of supercells that has developed in southern Illinois and Missouri moves into that environment along the warm front, significantly violent tornadoes are possible. Storms should also rapidly evolve along the cold front in western Tennessee/northern Mississippi.

SE Mizzou is ramping up...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1226 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN STODDARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST.

* AT 1224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELL CITY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORAN...AND
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
ORAN...BENTON...MORLEY...HAY-WOOD CITY...BLODGETT...LAMBERT AND
DIEHLSTADT.

SE Tenn

Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

TNC011-107-123-139-021900-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-120302T1900Z/
BRADLEY TN-MCMINN TN-MONROE TN-POLK TN-
132 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EST FOR POLK...
MONROE...MCMINN AND NORTHERN BRADLEY COUNTIES...

AT 126 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DENTVILLE...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF BENTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

A SPOTTER REPORT JUST INDICATED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND MOVING
TOWARD ETOWAH.

ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN MESOCYCLONE...NEAR THE BRADLEY AND MCMINN
COUNTY LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR SOUTHERN MCMINN AND
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY LINE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ETOWAH...BULLET CREEK...ENGLEWOOD...MOUNT VERNON...COKER CREEK AND
TELLICO PLAINS.

That shows 2,500 joules of CAPE, not extreme instability, but enough to get the job done.


A significant tornado parameter of 7 is very high.

content.wdtinc.com...

Live stream, tornadic supercell coming into southwest Indiana.

:edit: looks like Kholby Martin might have been hit by a tornado!

Jim Cantore just said a 9 out of 10 is the highest they have issued since the April tornado outbreak last year. But even then the TOR:CON 9 was issued during the event, this is being issued hours before the event. Not good at all.