Massive asteroid, 2011 AG5, to hit earth in 2040?

This huge asteroid, measuring 460feet, or 140 meters might actually hit earth in 2040.
Researchers are calling for talks on deflection plan strategies to plan for this possibility. The asteroid was discovered in January 2011, by astronomers in Tuczon. Although it is classified as high risk, some researchers say that further study is needed, since they have only observed half its orbital path.

The near-Earth asteroid 2011 AG5 currently has an impact probability of 1 in 625 for Feb. 5, 2040, said Donald Yeomans, head of the Near-Earth Object Observations Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

1 in 625, is rather a good chance of this actually happenning.

This impact probability isn't set in stone, however. So far, researchers have been able to watch the asteroid for just a short time -- the first nine months of 2011 -- and the numbers may change after further observation, Yeomans told SPACE.com. "Fortunately, this object will be observable from the ground in the 2013-2016 interval," Yeomans said.

In the very unlikely scenario that its impact probability does not significantly decrease after processing these additional observations, "there would be time to mount a deflection mission to alter its course before the 2023 keyhole," he added. Keyholes are small regions in space near Earth through which a passing NEO's orbit may be perturbed due to gravitational effects, possibly placing it onto a path that would impact Earth.

2011 AG5 may zip through such a keyhole on its close approach to Earth in February 2023, which will bring the asteroid within 0.02 astronomical units (1.86 million miles, or 2.99 million kilometers) of Earth. One astronomical unit is the average distance between Earth and sun, which is approximately 93 million miles (150 million km).

Here is the link to the full article, some very interesting reading indeed.

vvv

they better get used to taking care of these before they hit, i got a feeling there will be a big rise in stuff wanting to crash into us.


my reasoning for this is that most asteroid movies usually have a rock coming when the year in the movie is implied to be "what the technology we SHOULD have in 2012 should be like compared to now..."

so it looks like this is that kind of time.


it all adds up.

black president, end of the world, etc.

every. single. time.


edit: im not racist, just saying that most asteroid movies regarding the end of the world have black presidents in them and happen to look like they are taking place in the year 2012-2015-ish.



edit2: may i go further as to imply the possibility of a conspiracy.... what if all those movies are subliminally preparing us for what is REALLY gunna happen, IF its true?

who would be behind these movies and wanting us to be prepared, or expect something for some reason?

edit2: may i go further as to imply the possibility of a conspiracy.... what if all those movies are subliminally preparing us for what is REALLY gunna happen, IF its true?

reply to post by SoymilkAlaska



If we don our conspiracy hats, we can very well come to that conclusion.

It won't surprise me if the Annunaki people start jumping on this, saying the reptilian overlords shall return in this "vessel".
Hrmmmmm

vvv

reply to post by VreemdeVlieendeVoorwep



where do they get all that reptile theory anyway?

i never caught on to that or understood it.

learn to use the search engine ...............

Originally posted by nofear39
learn to use the search engine ...............

Mate i did. Maybe i did not search correctly.

I do so apologize for wasting your time.

vvv

I sure hope Bruce Willis is still around in 2040.... But I wouldn't be worried. Unless we havn't already blown ourselves up by then, our weaponary and military systems by then should be organised enough to handle such an event... unless I have just watched too many sci-fi movies, in which case we have a 1/625 chance of paying tribute to the dinosaurs.

OK Nice info.

However this is NOT the cataclysmic event everyone is hoping for.

An impact by an asteroid of that size would do serious damage yes, but it would not wipe out the world, Just London

I ran a simulation on down 2 earth for a 200m asteroid made of iron, at a 45 Deg angle at top speed. the crater iss huge. and the fireball is 7.7 km radius.

At 200km away your windows will smash

at 300km away. You are fine.

A bad day for London.

The material ejected would dissipate in the atmosphere. Not much more than a significant volcanic eruption.

Something to keep an eye on sure. But apocalypse preparations? not this time.

reply to post by VreemdeVlieendeVoorwep


haha its ok pal.......... i just read it yesterday and seen how many posts u have made so was having a giggle

Well, this asteroid is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a rating on the Torino Scale of Level 1.

Note that the notable objects on the risk page include only 5 asteroids: 99942 Apophis, (101955) 1999 RQ36, 2011 AG5, 2007 VK184, and 1994 WR12.
Among these five, only two are listed on the Torino Scale above zero: 2011 AG5 and 2007 VK184.

Here's the Torino Scale:


Torino Scale. The scale in metres is the approximate diameter of an asteroid with a typical collision velocity.

....with the definition of Level 1: A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

So, even if they said that there's the possibility of five potential impacts between 2040 and 2047, only one is rated level 1 on the TS (in green in the Near Earth Object Program (NASA) below:



So, I guess that we can say that the chances are really close to zero.

Edit: we already knew worse: Apophis upgraded to Level 4 in 2004, but this no consequences:

"(99942) Apophis(a ≈350 m near-Earth asteroid) became the first object rated level 2 on 23 December 2004,and was subsequently upgraded to level 4 — the current record for highest Torino rating. It will pass quite closely to the Earth on 13 April 2029 without an impact. It retained a rating of level 1 for a 2036 encounter due to the orbital uncertainties introduced by the gravitational deflection until August 2006, when Apophis was downgraded to 0."



Oh! and BTW S&F for your effort and the research done

reply to post by VreemdeVlieendeVoorwep


Apocalyptic or not... If it lands some where on earth it WILL be bad for someone. It will be good to know, if it's going to hit, where the impact will be.The longer they watch it, the more we will know. What might be even worse is, if it where to land in a sea or ocean. Tidal waves can cause a tremendous amount of damage and death......as we've seen from the Japan footage.
I can't for the life of me, remember what the odds of an Apophis impact are. Or its size for that matter.
I'd like to know. If anyone knows off hand.
I guess an large impact is bound to happen eventually. I just hope we are able to divert disaster when it counts the most.......when ever that might be.

TXML

Can anyone say AG5 corner pocket?

But on a serious note, while i think deflection is a probably the way we will go and most likely with the use of a laser to super heat one precise section to cause a jet of gases to erupt to alter the course. i watched a discovery channel special on this exact topic yesterday afternoon and i was amazed at the things we have to alter the course. I think we need to exercise extreme caution when doing this, what we do not need to do is alter the course into the path of another celestial body which could setup a chain reaction with negative consequences ie knock it into the local asteroid belt located between Mars and Jupiter disrupting an established orbit and sending more our way

I know space is a massive place with more "dead" empty space than anything else and the odds of pushing the asteroid into another celestial body are pretty low but it is still something we will need to take account for.

Its the old proverb of a butterfly flapping his wings in Montana causing a hurricane in Britain. Sometimes altering an event can lead to unforeseen results

I read about this earlier today.

So this is something different from Apophus?

Keyholes are small regions in space near Earth through which a passing NEO's orbit may be perturbed due to gravitational effects, possibly placing it onto a path that would impact Earth.

The above statement is utter rubbish. An asteroid will ALWAYS be perturbed by Earth's gravity if it passes close enough. A keyhole is simply a mathematically calculated location in space through which an asteroid would have to pass at exactly the right velocity to result in an impact many years later.