Head's Up Arkansas, Missouri, eastern Oklahoma

Good job OP. This is what it takes to make a real prediction. Not claiming "Jesus" told you, or willy nilly interpreting ancient calendars that you have no context for and no reason to believe they would know the future anymore than anyone else, or "analyzing" google search term trends, or claiming aliens gave you a message or whatever other nonsense. But instead knowledge in a subject, data/observations, a little bit of intuition and usually a short time frame because predicting tomorrow is infinitely easier than predicting next month.

Thus weather is one of the only things that can be predicted reasonably, though it obviously still isn't very easy as weather stations didn't really predict this while the OP did. Such predictions aren't always that useful, it's not like you can evacuate an entire state because there might be a tornado tomorrow, but still it is nice to have a heads up so you can keep an eye out. Sorry for the deceased that this prediction was right.

Just tried a different post, but I'm searching for anyone with info on a recent swarm of earthquakes in the So Cal area of the Salton Sea. Scientist expect this will be the origin of the "Big One" and the quakes are ramping up, over two dozen today! Thoughts?

Originally posted by FissionSurplus
I'm so glad that the members of our ATS family are OK, but it makes me sad at heart to hear about the deaths, injuries and property destruction.

I have found that the severity of the winds down here caused by a spinning low to the north is directly correlated to severe weather to the northeast of here. This is the third such event I've seen in the year I've lived here, and every time, it signals a tornado outbreak.

When I saw the high winds yesterday, and they lasted all day long, I knew I had to sound the alarm. If I was wrong, the thread would disappear into the cyber ether and no harm done. But if I didn't mention something, I would have felt guilty.

Seriously, I have watched the weather and schooled myself in meteorology since I moved to Texas 10 years ago. Texas tends to be the bellwether for the south and midwest. What happens here tends not to stay here, and it amplifies when it hits gulf moisture-laden areas farther east.

Friday, apparently, is going to be worse, so don't let your guard down, folks. The craziness continues today in Kentucky. Another fast-moving storm from the Pacific Northwest is riding the jet stream. More wind for west Texas, more severe weather for the same areas that were hit last night and early today by Friday.

I am only on this post from where I left off last night, I am feeling that anxiety of the experience last night, but have to let you know again Just ho precious you were to hold my hand and if you wouldn't mind me saying, the visualization you did for us I believe created a miracle for us, please tell others what it was as I have all day to family and friends. I still, feel the protective hands on me...

Thank you for being my lifeline, I have never been so scared. This was not even close to my first brush with tornados, but it was different.

reply to post by RealSpoke


I had no idea the warning was into Ohio,
let us know if anything changes and stay
safe. I think I better take another look
at the map.

Seems Intellicast reports a possible tornado right around the city of Cleveland, Ohio. This storm system is rather wide-spread and persistent. Seems new hot-spots are popping up all around the US. And it doesn't seem Cleveland is under a tornado watch/warning at all. I don't think anything good will come of it. As mentioned in another thread, let us hope everyone seeks shelter.

reply to post by antar


I'm so glad that you and your family made it through OK!! All I know is that I felt your fear keenly and knew how frightened I would be if I were in your shoes. I don't believe I can do anything miraculous by any stretch of the imagination, but once in a while, God (or the Great Spirit, or whatever name you want to call it, or Him) will listen to a prayer from an insignificant little speck of life, realize the caring and concern that comes from it, and perhaps answers the call.

It was probably coincidence, but I did send out a prayer for you and visualized large, protective hands around your house, shooing the tornado away and leaving your house untouched.

Again, it was most likely coincidence, but I was raised believing in the power of prayer if it is unselfish and is to help other people. I had a similar disaster averted after sending out a prayer when a prairie fire was ready to engulf our house. The wind changed direction within a minute and the fire, which had been coming at our house with 30 mph winds, was suddenly blown away from us. This fire could have taken out quite a few farmhouses, starting with ours. I posted this story a while back for a contest on ATS:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I hope people don't think I'm crazy now. But we women believe strongly in the powers of intuition and divine intervention. I like to be rational and logical in my approach, but I do believe there is something out there greater than us, and when we see somebody hurting or in a dangerous situation. it never hurts to send up a prayer and visualize a positive outcome!

Just to fill in the details for Southern Illinois: An F4 tornado with winds of 170 miles per hour hit Harrisburg, Illinois at 4.56 a.m. Wednesday morning. 250-300 homes were damaged as well as 25 businesses; including the businesses built around the new Walmart, the mall and restaurant row. so far, 6 confirmed dead and 100 injured. Illinois Governor Quinn has rated it an official disaster area. The tornado moved east and then struck Ridgeway, Illinois where it did more damage.

I live only 20 miles from Harrisburg, and in fact, was in the heart of the damaged area getting a birthday dinner bought for me, just hours before the tornado hit. Lying in bed this morning, I heard sirens go off and wondered if they were for the severe thunderstorms we were having, turns out, it was for the tornado. This ain't funny anymore. It used to be we only had to worry about this during "tornado season." Now, we get tornadoes literally every month of the year here in Southern Illinois. The tornado sirens have went off in my town three times already this young year - and it's supposed to be winter time, not storm season. Predictions are for worse conditions on Friday. Man the battlements - batten down the hatches! Fortunately, my neighborhood knows to come to my house where we can hunker down in the basement where we might have the best chance if a tornado hits us. 3 tornadoes came within a mile of here last year, but didn't hit my town, only skirted it. We were lucky - but for how long?

I don't care what you say, this is not normal.

CNN reports that the storms/tornados will reach St. Louis and Memphis today.....

Thanks for the thread OP!! I hope we all manage to come thru the next round tomorrow OK. I hate severe storms and we seem to be getting more and more of them.

This weather reminds me of 1993 when a tornado hit Lenoir City, Tennessee on Feb. 21. Then a few weeks later (March 12) the "Storm of the Century" hit and some places around the area (Knoxville, TN) got about 3 feet of snow. Of course up in the Smoky Mountains that went as high as 5-6 feet in some places. It was craziness. We even had thunder-snow at the start of the storm because it had been so warm before the cold air hit.

Here's hoping that pattern doesn't repeat itself. And here's a prayer that Friday's storm's end up being weaker than predicted!

OiO

reply to post by OneisOne

1993 - I remember that storm, was in Ky.
Certainly don't want a repeat of that
again. Keeping a close eye on the
weather today - hope tomorrow goes
alright for everyone!

Dear ATS Society.

Another evening in Russia and the storms in the US are picking up. One severe thunderstorm warning going near Damascus (What a coincidence.) Damascus Alabama, not Syria. Seems like a good cell is moving East towards London. (The US have such strange names for the small settlements.) The terrain looks mixed with some hills, forests and fields. I'll keep an eye out on Intellicast and try to keep up with he warning that would eventually pop up. Anyone have any links to the US CAPE and LI values somewhere? Perhaps a good national model with high resolution that supports GRIB output? I so wish I could storm-chase in the US one season. Stay safe and sheltered everyone.

Addendum number one. There seems to be a nice and round cell with steep edges near Dublin, Georgia (again a delightful name) and it has a slight V-notch on the West side. There are two larger cells to North-North-West as well.

Addendum number two. I know little of US geography sadly, and I know even less on which condition favor the developments of tornadoes. I don't have a synop on had right now, but there is a cell near Suggsville, Alabama that is heading for Perdue Hill I will keep my eyes on. Am I even correct by calling it a cell? Intellicast is showing what I believe are gradations of precipitation. Not relative speeds, helicity, or cloud heights.

From LI -5 Russia with 0 CAPE and much love

reply to post by RumET

(The US have such strange names for the small settlements.)

Isn't modern technology amazing! You are in Moscow monitoring the weather in Alabama! Who would've ever thought that would be so easy and entertaining.

A little off-topic, but there is a motorcycle ride that we like to do where you can go around the world in two days and hit sites like Paris, London, Havana, Cairo, etc. All the little towns are in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida make for quite a worldly experience. There is even a T-shirt.

reply to post by getreadyalready


With all due respect the place-names are somewhat entertaining. Knowing that those red and purple blobs on my screen mean suffering for someone in the USA is not the least entertaining. First I am mostly doing it to educate myself so I can recognize any and all signs of upcoming super cells in Moscow. And second, I am predicting if a cell on the map will go tornadic and compare later for education. Rather hard to get a proper storm chaser education in Russia sadly. But hey, even if Moscow is hit by an F5 I correctly predict I doubt anyone will believe me when I tell them to hide in the basement. They would most likely go outside and laugh at the oncoming wedge. Like they did in 2008-2009 when an F3 was born over Moscow and did damage all around our county.

I did mention it in some earlier threads, but Russia has only one functioning Doppler radar and it's located in Pulkovo - St. Petersburg. Serves at the international airport and the data it provides is closed off to the public. There is a rule in Russia saying that only Russian-made Doppler radars can be used on our soil. And so far no factories are manufacturing such a thing. So the outlooks on getting a country-wide radar network available to the public are scarce. The next best tinhg is availbale here from a Belorussian weather page. It is not in real time and has bad resolution.

Do forgive my Russian - centered off-topic. I thought I should provide the reasons for the drive I feel when around large and dangerous storms. Warn and save people.

reply to post by RumET


Oh, I understand the death and destruction shouldn't be entertaining, but I grew up in the Midwest, and I have rode out many tornadoes, and they are quite exciting. Storm-chasing is also very exciting and entertaining. No one wishes for anybody to be hurt, and we all pray for the best possible outcome, but witnessing mother nature at her raw, uncompromising best is very awe-inspiring.

I had no idea weather forecasting in Russia was that poor. Maybe you should open a radar manufacturing plant!

reply to post by TrulyColorBlind


Wow! Apparently there is no more "storm" season for you guys, it is all the time. Not good.

The wind is starting to pick up out here late this morning. It won't be anything like Tuesday, but it is the result of another low headed towards y'all. The same conditions exist for another round for the same areas tomorrow.

Just checked the local weather, they are predicting 50 mph gusts out here. The wind is starting to scream through here as I write this. Close enough to the 65 mph gusts earlier this week that I would be on high alert for tomorrow if I were in the midwest and midsouth.

www.weather.com...

The dreaded "Triple Point" (Where the dry gusty wind, moist air, and cold air meet) appears to be in the mid-Mississippi valley (eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and Kentucky) and then heads eastward.

As you can see from the weather channel graphic, the states of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia are also under the gun. Hopefully the triple point misses southern Illinois and southern Indiana, but everybody anywhere in the highlighted areas in the graphic should be watching their weather carefully.

There is an old saying: March comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb. That seems to be true this year.

reply to post by RumET


A Russian tornado buff. That's fantastic! Thanks to the internet, anybody anywhere who has an internet connection can be a virtual storm chaser. I too have a tornado fascination. Texas is a great place to live if you like crazy weather. Locally, in Lubbock, we have storm chasing classes and storm spotting classes. People are very aware out here of weather because it can change so quickly and become ugly in a hurry.

I have seen tornadoes form overhead, and it is such an eerie sight: Everything gets dark (and sometimes a little green, indicating hail in the storm cell), and the clouds start to swirl like a whirlpool. It is fascinating and frightening at the same time. There are no trees or hills out here, the sky dominates the landscape, and you can see large wall clouds and thunderheads 100 miles away.




The above picture is a thunderstorm by Sudan, Texas.

reply to post by FissionSurplus

I have seen tornadoes form overhead, and it is such an eerie sight: Everything gets dark (and sometimes a little green, indicating hail in the storm cell), and the clouds start to swirl like a whirlpool.

Yep! And there is often a specific smell, kind of like an icy smell, but not exactly. If you are very close to where it is forming, there is an odd calmness as the winds and turbulence are swept up above and around you, but at ground level it calms down a bit. Then you hear the trees and or rain in the distance, and you know when it is time to take cover. If the actual tornado is anywhere close to you, it sounds exactly like a distant train becoming less and less distant very quickly. When the tornado went through Joplin, MO last year. It missed my parent's house by about 4 miles, but they watched the storm from their front porch, and my Dad put his hand on one of the porch pillars and he could feel it vibrating the pillar and the ground around him. He said it felt like standing on the side of a busy road as a truck goes by. He and my mother just looked at each other and said, "uh oh."

My brother was out chasing the storm, and he has very good storm instincts and he wanted to head north to cut it off, but his friend wanted to go south. They ended up going south and they just missed the storm! Had they gone north, they would have been in front of it and likely killed. Instead, they were the first on the scene at the intersection where the Home Depot and Pizza Parlor and IHOP were all destroyed. They had the unfortunate experience of helping to clear bodies, direct traffic, direct the Fire Dept when they showed up, and then digging for survivors the rest of the night. He didn't sleep for 2 days as he spent every free minute going back and shuttling people to their homes, or their relative's homes looking for survivors or recovering a few clothes and necessities to live from. After a couple of days FEMA and the Red Cross had taken over, and they wouldn't let amateurs help anymore. He got very frustrated with the authorities by the end of that first week.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


I didn't know Sudan had Supercells Yes, I am reading over any storm awareness/Meteorology and Storm Chasing materials I can find online at the US National Weather Service and other venues. I am glad we have the Net, as it allows me to study those fascinating storms with great depth and from multiple angles. I got the 'bug' right after we had a huge supercell with a wall cloud that rotated above our house.

As all storms it came from South West. A rather strange looking, utterly dark and rotating cloud preceded by those 'green skies' I've actually seen them up to twenty times each summer here in Moscow. And they thrill me every time. They look absolutely wicked. But that time that single cloud was churning and moving so fast with a gust(front?) underneath it and it just felt very very wrong. The same wall cloud produced a funnel that touched down approximately twenty kilometers from our house and became the Krasnozavodsk tornado which reached an EF3 strength. It was absolutely unbelievable.

Ever since each Spring, Summer and fall I look to the skies, then to the models. Learning everything I can about Lifted Instability and Capped Available Potential Energy and other storm factors as I can. Which is a huge change from five years back, when I had brontophobia. I still cower down when the worst of +CG hits us, as our house isn't grounded and since it hasn't been struck by lightning in over fifty years I think it is long overdue.

Due to the lack of Doppler coverage, horrible road networks and lots of forests around I doubt storm chasing would be possible. But I do love to get up on my roof, daring the electrical discharges and spotting the horizon which is about 40-50 kilometers away for possible wall and funnel clouds. We have an old basement in the earth which I don't think would suffice either, but it helps from flying debris. Last summer there was a night when we were in a spot of clear warm air, and all around us were those huge, silent flashes illuminating the towering Cu/Cb
that had us surrounded. It was a silent and very surreal view of nature's fury at its best. Forgive my long rant. I just suffered through a long and cold winter and my brain keeps coming back to taste all those stormy details again and again. I've got storms on my brain

Addendum one. Possible tornado near Dothan, Alabama. That city looks a little like Moscow, since both have ring roads around them. I did notice that city some hours ago, but with he latest Intellicast update there's now a possible tornado southwest of Dothan. And the movement cone is projected due East.

Addendum Two. The possible tornado above was given a Tornado Warning.

From Russia with Love and Respect to my fellow storm lovers.

Looks like friday is getting set to be a busy day. Tornadoes as far north as indiana it sounds like.



THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE FRIDAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO BY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS WITH
EMBEDDED TORNADO TRACKS. A LONG TRACK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

WHILE EXACT STORM EVOLUTION...COVERAGE AND TIMING...REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THAT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24 IN NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST OHIO ARE THE MOST LIKELY TARGETED AREAS.

reply to post by JackBauer


Thanks for the update - I think.
I am in Ft. Wayne. Getting a
little nervous about it already.