Michigan and Arizona primary thread.

Just thought I would post a thread for all to discuss today's voting states, Michigan and Arizona. Also, any shady goings ons. Just heard them say on CNN that if Romney looses his home state, that the Gop might need to look at other possiblities. Such as Jeb Bush, Christy and others. Anyone but the peoples choice, Ron Paul.

I have the final poll results from Public Policy Polling (PPP) www.myfoxdetroit.com...

LANSING, Mich. - Mitt Romney is neck-and-neck with-Rick Santorum in Michigan but has pulled far ahead in Arizona on the eve of key primary contests in both states, according to new polls. . . . Texas Rep. Ron Paul was in third place overall in the two-day poll with 14 percent, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich drew nine percent.

In Arizona, Romney has pulled well ahead of Santorum and the rest of the presidential field, according to a separate PPP poll conducted Sunday.

The former Massachusetts governor secured 43 percent in that poll, compared to Santorum's 26 percent, Gingrich's 18 percent and Paul's 11 percent.

I admire Ron Paul, but I just don't see him as "the People's Choice."

reply to post by charles1952


Sorry I should have clarified: People: those who make educated votes, not voting for whoever the msm tells them. People: those who enjoy their personal liberty and don't want to see it further eroded. People: those who understand that this may be our last chance to fix this broken economy, this broken political system and stop the military industrial complex. Those are the people I was referring to.

reply to post by imawlinn


I have heard these rumors about Jeb Bush also; does anyone in their right mind think that the public would vote for another Bush?!

I personally didn't mind the other Bush's; but if Jeb did run you Obama would be complete shoo in.

Go Ron Paul!

Mitt Romney has this contest locked down he will be the eventual winner



Go Ron Paul

With Pauls support videos 4k I don't see why he loses

Originally posted by imawlinn
reply to post by charles1952

 

Sorry I should have clarified: People: those who make educated votes, not voting for whoever the msm tells them. People: those who enjoy their personal liberty and don't want to see it further eroded. People: those who understand that this may be our last chance to fix this broken economy, this broken political system and stop the military industrial complex. Those are the people I was referring to.

Ah so people who do not agree with you do not make educated votes? Just because a small group has anointed Ron Paul as the messiah does not mean that the rest of us have to buy it. Other groups are ok with people supporting whatever canidate they want. Pauls supporters seem to think everybody should toss aside thier own ideas and march lock step with them to put in a canidate they want. I have said all along that aside from some of his more nutty ideas Ron Pauls biggest weakness are his obnoxious followers.

Originally posted by MrSpad


Pauls supporters seem to think everybody should toss aside thier own ideas and march lock step with them to put in a canidate they want.

Their own ideas, or the ideas given to them by the media?
Or are you unaware that the media influences people's decisions? The difference here is nobody became a ron paul supporter because of the media, but the same can't be said about the other candidates. Don't even bother trying to argue that point because it's a fact the media ignores Paul and when they don't, they shine him in a negative light. Too many people treat the election as a sporting event and support whoever they think will win, and can you guess where they get the idea of who they think will win?

reply to post by bl4ke360


That's the problem with He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named followers, they think everybody who doesn't like their messiah is brainwashed. Ever think people just do not like him??? Ever??? Or is that impossible for you guys to figure out. Not all of us are brainwashed shills. If anybody is a brainwashed shill it's you guys trying your best to figure out how to get a last place candidate elected, who has no chance in hell getting elected because only the general population of ATS and DailyPaul love him and that's about 10% of the real population.

Anyway, I am looking forward to the race between Romney and Santorum. Both of them are fine choices for President, if you look at any other President, they all have their faults.

reply to post by MrSpad


Paul bashers have labeled him the Messiah, not his supporters. We, or at least I, see him as the only one talking about real issues and having real solutions to said problems. The fact of the matter is, change is coming. Whether out of need or by emergency necessity. Voters will decide which path that change will come about. I'm afraid it will be the latter.

Arizona: Winner Take All closed primary with 29 delegates at stake.
Arizona Polls: www.realclearpolitics.com...

RCP Average:
Romney: 42.8%
Santorum: 27.3%
Gingrich: 17.8%
Paul: 10.0%

Michigan: Proportional open primary with 30 delegates at stake. From what I have read, the proportional delegates will be awarded on a winner take all bases within the congressional districts.
Michigan Polls: www.realclearpolitics.com...

RCP Average:
Romney: 37.3%
Santorum: 35.8%
Paul: 13.0%
Gingrich: 10.3%



It looks like Arizona is locked up for Romney, and that is a winner take all Primary. Michigan is going to be the "big" media story. It looks like it will be a close race and a big deal will be made about it being Romney's home state.


Here is how I think each candidate will perform.


Romney: Looks like he will definately win Arizona and be 1st or 2nd in Michigan. With Arizona being a winner take all state, whoever wins that will come out of today with the most delegates won for the day. So Romney looks likely to come out as the delegate winner for today. But if he loses Michigan...it will be seen as a big blow to his campaign.

Santorum: With Romney looking to win Arizona, Santorum wants Michigan to upset Romney. He breifly surged ahead of Romney in the polls, but not enough to secure a win. It will be a close race. Michigan is a open primary, so democrats and independents can vote in these elections. There has been a lot of talk about democrats and independents to go out and vote for Santorum to cause chaos in the Republican party.

Paul: Ron Paul is looking at a 3rd or 4th finish in both races. I think his goal for today is to not be in last place in both races. He has a slight edge over Gingrich in Michigan, and with it being an open primary I think he should be able to take 3rd place in Michigan. I don't know if he will be able to get a large enough percentage to get any delegates, but he has a good chance of getting 3rd.

Gingrich: He has all but said he is "skipping" these two states. It looks like he will get 3rd in Arizona, but with it being winner take all it doesn't matter. Gingrich is a non-story today...I doubt you will hear his name more than a handful of times.

Topping thread (hopefully folks will notice). Thanks for starting this one!

reply to post by OutKast Searcher



Outkast that is a very good breakdown of what will happen. This is reality not the wishful thinking of the DailyPaul. However, I am sure you are prepared to get bashed by He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named Supporters. He spreads the most rhetoric and leftist ideals than all the other candidates. He doesn't have 'real' solutions. He has some large idealistic ones that frankly will never pass congress. Oh, wait He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named will 'fix' that too. If anything he'll make it more corrupt because he wants to put in members he feels will be good for the country. Another similarity to Obama. But in light of repeating myself over and over again I'll stop highlighting many of his errors and just let you all drink his kool-aid! Not deemed Messiah by his followers?



I mean just take a look at some of these things.... Clear contrast between Messiah and any other word you can think of to distinguish He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named as the one who will save the world. Grow up.

Originally posted by MrSpad

Ah so people who do not agree with you do not make educated votes? Just because a small group has anointed Ron Paul as the messiah does not mean that the rest of us have to buy it. Other groups are ok with people supporting whatever canidate they want. Pauls supporters seem to think everybody should toss aside thier own ideas and march lock step with them to put in a canidate they want. I have said all along that aside from some of his more nutty ideas Ron Pauls biggest weakness are his obnoxious followers.

I wish I can give you 5000+ stars for this.

Originally posted by imawlinn
reply to post by MrSpad

 

The fact of the matter is, change is coming. Whether out of need or by emergency necessity. Voters will decide which path that change will come about. I'm afraid it will be the latter.

IDK to me that sounds, Obama-esque.

Originally posted by MrSpad

Originally posted by imawlinn
reply to post by charles1952

 

Sorry I should have clarified: People: those who make educated votes, not voting for whoever the msm tells them. People: those who enjoy their personal liberty and don't want to see it further eroded. People: those who understand that this may be our last chance to fix this broken economy, this broken political system and stop the military industrial complex. Those are the people I was referring to.

Ah so people who do not agree with you do not make educated votes? Just because a small group has anointed Ron Paul as the messiah does not mean that the rest of us have to buy it. Other groups are ok with people supporting whatever canidate they want. Pauls supporters seem to think everybody should toss aside thier own ideas and march lock step with them to put in a canidate they want. I have said all along that aside from some of his more nutty ideas Ron Pauls biggest weakness are his obnoxious followers.

You do know that voting for Ron doesn't earn us followers a merit badge. Are you sure you didn't just make the point for the guy you responded to here? An educated voter is not going to be influenced by the politician's fan base. An emotional voter might.

If this election (or any in my lifetime) was just about different ideas, then you could make your point about agreeing or disagreeing about whom to support. But clearly, to those capable and willing to think, this isn't one of those elections. All the other candidates are politicians, they don't believe in any of the things they say enough to not be swayed by the prevailing winds of the moment. You have to be smart enough to understand that . There is no candidate that respects "your" ideas or represents your ideas. If you want to argue or support a different ideology, that is cool, but you can't use any other candidate as your avatar, that is for certain.

(this includes you jjf)

HOW.. PLEASE TELL A SIMPLE CANADIAN... HOW HOW HOW is Santorum in the lead in these States?

reply to post by CALGARIAN

Santorum is in the lead because it's only recently that the press (and ATS threads) have started calling him a kook. They're going for the kook idea because they can't find any corruption or sexual sins in his life. The reason they're not doing this kind of thing to Paul is because he's not seen as a threat to Obama.

***************************

One objection I have to Paul, that another poster touched on, is his legislative record. I understand that in all his years in Congress, he has written one bill that has been signed into law. I'm not sure he has the ability to work with Congress to get his ideals accomplished.

I like him, but I'm worried about him.

Originally posted by CALGARIAN
HOW.. PLEASE TELL A SIMPLE CANADIAN... HOW HOW HOW is Santorum in the lead in these States?

He's not in the lead...in either state.

He is close in Michigan...but Romney still has a slight edge.

reply to post by OutKast Searcher


Yeah, Santorum's incredibly insane comments the last week or so is hurting him. Apparently the robocalls have been flooding in...especially last night.

It didn't happen to me because i am not registered with either party, but people i know were getting robocalls even after 9pm. One told me that they had over 10 calls last night and had to ended up disconnecting their phone just to make it stop.

Also, i don't know of anyone that is rushing out to vote for Ron Paul....so in that regard the polls seem legitimate.

Originally posted by Res Ipsa

Originally posted by MrSpad

Originally posted by imawlinn
reply to post by charles1952

 

Sorry I should have clarified: People: those who make educated votes, not voting for whoever the msm tells them. People: those who enjoy their personal liberty and don't want to see it further eroded. People: those who understand that this may be our last chance to fix this broken economy, this broken political system and stop the military industrial complex. Those are the people I was referring to.

Ah so people who do not agree with you do not make educated votes? Just because a small group has anointed Ron Paul as the messiah does not mean that the rest of us have to buy it. Other groups are ok with people supporting whatever canidate they want. Pauls supporters seem to think everybody should toss aside thier own ideas and march lock step with them to put in a canidate they want. I have said all along that aside from some of his more nutty ideas Ron Pauls biggest weakness are his obnoxious followers.

You do know that voting for Ron doesn't earn us followers a merit badge. Are you sure you didn't just make the point for the guy you responded to here? An educated voter is not going to be influenced by the politician's fan base. An emotional voter might.

If this election (or any in my lifetime) was just about different ideas, then you could make your point about agreeing or disagreeing about whom to support. But clearly, to those capable and willing to think, this isn't one of those elections. All the other candidates are politicians, they don't believe in any of the things they say enough to not be swayed by the prevailing winds of the moment. You have to be smart enough to understand that . There is no candidate that respects "your" ideas or represents your ideas. If you want to argue or support a different ideology, that is cool, but you can't use any other candidate as your avatar, that is for certain.

(this includes you jjf)

edit on 28-2-2012 by Res Ipsa because: (no reason given)

So Ron Paul is not a politician? You mean the guy who has added earmarks to bills he knows will pass and then votes against them so he can keep his "consistent" voting record against them? Paul is very shrewd politician who has plays the outsider. He is just like all the others.