To be able to understand that this is NOT warmongering and also NOT building a case against Iran NOR to defend Israel, you have to put yourself in
Leave aside any declaration of any official from UN, US, Israel, Iran or from anywhere, and just imagine you are the prime minister of Israel and your
own familiy are the government of Israel.
You are like anyone on this planet, just with a twist : your people was almost killed entirely by nazis (pls just don't say its not true or its true,
its what israelis BELIEVE - and this is what matters), you established the State of Israel in 1948 and almost imediately got invaded by muslim armies
in the Middle East (you won the war), than you got involved in another 3-5 wars (some were "military interventions" or "conflicts") some won, some
were draw, some considered to be won by enemies.
Somwhere between 1948 and 1970, you loved country developed , outside NPT (again, this is not a subject, israelis consider their right to have nukes)
a nuclear program (rogue, w/e, not the point), a nucleat program that deterred a big coallition of muslim states to form, invade your country and
defeat you, ultimately causing either another exile or another Holocaust.
Its 2012.Iran develops a NUCLEAR program.They say its peaceful.You say it might be not.THIS IS ALL THAT MATTERS.
Lack of evidence is not important.The important thing is that you, the prime minster of Israel, along your family, the government, are faced with TWO
and ONLY TWO decissions :
-believe Iran when they say the program is entirely peaceful
-or don't believe them.
If you believe them, NOW (in 2012), that their nuclear program is peaceful, you have absolutely NO REASON whatsoever to try and stop them (from
diplomacy to military actions).However, Iran, like it or not ITS A RELIGIOUS STATE.Their PRESENT leaders might be sane and don't want to build any
nuclear weapons OR develop the instalations and tech to be able to build nuclear weapons.
However, can you, FIRMLY and 100% be sure and bet your ENTIRE PEOPLE to the fact that a FUTURE leadership of Iran will KEEP the PRESENT leadership
promises? Nope, you can't say what will happend tomorrow.
Your MIND is build on those 2 axes : -"NEVER AGAIN" and "MUSLIMS HATE US".Your mind is build like that because you are an ISRAELI and you were GROWN
with this.Its true? Its a lie? Don't matter, you, as an israeli, BELIEVE IT.
So you see, as a PM of Israel, you actually have NO OTHER WAY than to attack Iran, NO MATTER if you believe it or not.
As an israeli, you are not 100% sure that Iran will keep the promise NOT to build nukes or NOT to have the ABILITY (which is the REAL DEAL BTW) to
As an israeli, you do not want another Holocaust...
And, as an israeli, you believe muslims HATES you.
So what you got is : Iran, a MUSLIM country (they all might LOVE israelis...won't matter, because israelis believe they are hate them) with the
POTENTIAL future (1,2,5,10,15 years) ability...ABILITY to build nukes (the image of a second Holocaust becomes more and more real in your head, your
ISRAELI head and with a POTENTIAL future iranian leadership that might be opnely hostile toward you.
How could a country like Egypt or Saudi Arabia be stoped to develop a nuclear program IF Iran is doing it? What stops Jordan to do the same?And i mean
DECLARED PEACEFUL nuclear programs, BUT, declared by their PRESENT leaders?
How could you, the PM of Israel be sure that Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Jordan will STOP only to peacefull nuclear programs? You can't, and even if
you are NOW, a future leadership of ANY or ALL of those 3 above countries might want nuclear weapons.
There are A LOT OF UNKNOWS if Israel ACCEPTS AND BELEIVE Iran NOW, unknows that might, in 5-10-20 years, lead to this Middle East : Israel,
Egypt,Iran, Saudi Arabia and Jordan MIGHT become, one of them or any of them a NUCLEAR POWER with NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
At least NOW, you, the PM of Israel know this, for sure : YOU ARE THE SOLE COUNTRY WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS, thesole reason that stoped muslims to destroy
your country and people.
Once only ONE of the above countries are ABLE (only able ) to build nuclear weapons...ITS GAME OVER for Israel.You can't DESTROY the knowledge.Sooner
or later, a muslim country in ME will have build nukes.ANd from that point on, you can ALSO be NUKED.And it only takes ONE NUKE to finish Israel fro
Now, i believe many of you will say : "What about Pakistan?Aren't they muslims and ALREADY have nukes?How this work with our theory of the above?"
Well, if you have patience and small knowledge, this is why Pakistan DID NOT and WILL NOT launch a nuclear strike against Israel :
-A succesful nuclear strike needs : element of surpise, a large number of decoy-missiles and a good enough numeber of nuclear-tipped
missiles.Pakistans arsenal is small (around 60 nukes) and they need them to keep in check India, their declared no.1 enemy.Pakistans LONG range
missiles (needed to attack Israel) is also small, not enough to mount decoys AND nuclear missiles in a "safe" number.There will be NO surprise, the
distance from Pakistan to Israel is big enough for Israel to retaliate.
-But most important thing is that India, as FIRST enemy of Pakistan, will realize (after Pakistan will launch a nuclear attack on Israel) that
Pakistan is not only CAPABLE but also WILLING to launch nukes against a country that is AFTER India on their enemy list.This will prompt an
indianNUCLEAR preemtive strike against Pakistan.
Now, imagine that Israel sits down and let Iran aquiring the ABILITY to build nukes.Israel MIGHT let this happend because the distance is big enough
for their interceptors to hit iranian missiles...BUT Iran have ENOUGH missiles that can reach Israel to be able to mount a large number of decoys.But
lets say Iran will NOT build nukes.However, Egypt, emboldened by US and Israeli inaction, will develop (in time ofc) their own nuclear program,
declared, like Iran did, PEACEFULY.
But Egypt is TOO CLOSE to Israel.Israel will not want Egypt to have the ABILITY to build nukes, because once they are able to do it, they will have
ALL they need for a sucesful nuclear strike : short distance = element of surprise, thousands on missiles (you need only cheap short-range missiles,
NOT expensive long range ones) = plenty of decoy missiles...and it only needs ONE or TWO nukes to obliterate the small state of Israel.
Remember, you are thinking like an ISRAELI.Would you WAIT Iran to have the ABILITY (only the abilty) to build nukes? Would you wait Egypt to do the
same? Or Saudi Arabia? Or even Syria?Would you RISK your live, your family lives and your peoples lives WAITING?
Lets say that Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Syria will NOT use nukes before Israel does.But they all have the ABILITY to build nukes, and since
ALL of them are MUSLIM nations (that you, as israeli, believe they hate you) who STOPS them to ANIHILATE YOU CONVENTIONALY?
You are NO LONGER the sole nuclear armed nation in Middle East, you are no longer able to turn a DEFEAT into victory by threatening or even use
You will be the LOSER after a conventional or NUCLEAR war with your muslim enemies.You might DESTROY ALL OF THE ABOVE countries, but you will
LOSE.Muslims are 2,3 BILLIONS and have plenty of countries.You have 7 millions and a midget country.
Will you (Israel PM) WAIT or act NOW, while you are still SOLE nuclear power in ME ?
Will you WAIT for the UNKNOWN or act now, while at least KNOWING that Iran is the only target?
Will you attack now, have casualties and damge BUT still rebuild later or wait until your country is parking lot?
There is NO OTHER WAY for israelis.They BELIEVE that there is NO OTHER WAY.
No matter what they choose to do NOW, for them, its 2 options, and both options mean WAR, but in one of the options they, ISRAELIS, believe that can
And this is what matters : How ISRAELIS see the Iran nuclear program, not how OTHERS see it, OR how the program is actualy.Might be entirely PEACEFUL,
but iranians NEED to convice Israel that it is.And even if they are CONVINCING Israel that the program is PEACEFUL...they CAN'T CONVICE ISRAEL that
the program WILL REMAIN PEACEFUL.
Tomorrow, next week, next month, or year or decade...Israel will HAVE TO ATTACK.And i think its "easier" to attack ONE target now (Iran) than MORE
EDIT: As for the "succes" or the "failure" of an Israeli potential attack on Iran.Israel CANNOT completely destroy ALL iranian nuclear sites.They
don't have the air power to do it...
BUT...all it needs is for Israel to attack ONE nuclear site (lets say Natanz) to prompt an iranian answer, drag US into war (iran blocks Hormuz
Strait, or hits a US base or hits an Israeli military base and kill amrican soldiers, or a FALSE FLAG) and once US is in...its either WW3 (thus not
even Russia and China wants that, its game over for them, the US, and everyone else)...or its iranian nucler sites destroyed and their nuclear program
stoped or delayed for decades.
Not to mention that anyone else who is in ME, thinks five times before starting a nuclear program, EVEN PEACEFUL.
I am just thinking like an ISRAELI.And i am thinking logicaly, i believe that i have to choose between two ways, both bad for me...but one is less bad
that the other.
edit on 25-2-2012 by Recollector because: *