posted on Feb, 23 2012 @ 07:16 PM
Originally posted by sageofmonticello
Paul has won states... it just depends if you count a win as having the most votes in a non-binding straw poll or if you count a win by picking up
the most delegates in the state. It is clear that the media has put too much emphasis on the straw polls as they have had little bearing on the
delegate selection process in most states.
So if Ron Paul has the most delegates on 3/6/12 but doesn't win a non binding straw poll he should quit while he is winning?
I think you have gotten some things confused.
Straw polls (like polls here on ATS) are not really representative of anything EXCEPT what certain groups want. So the Republicans of Iowa City or
the Tea Party of Virginia County can certainly declare "Spots The Tarantual" or whomever the winner.
What counts is binding elections. Ron Paul hasn't won a single state yet, though he did end up second. Although he's #1 on ATS, most of the time
he's third or fourth in real elections. His support base is about 10% of the population.
Your friends and people at places you hang out tend to vote like you (so almost all of my friends will probably vote for Obama.) You can't base
predictions of "how everyone votes" on "what me and my friends like." And if everyone likes someone else, that isn't a conspiracy against your
candidate -- it's just that your candidate isn't as good a match with our beliefs as another person is.
So... I expect Romney will get most of the Mormon vote, right? And Santorum is running strongly in the Ultraconservative Christians (and there's
lots of them.) Gingrich is ahead in Georgia and is likely to stay ahead there.
If Paul loses all the states and somehow gets picked to run for President on the basis of what the delegates are voting (which means they're going
against the wishes of the people who they're supposed to represent), then I will expect a huge fuss in the Republican Party and another round of
Which wouldn't be a bad thing.