posted on Feb, 18 2012 @ 05:54 AM
A World War in the current international situation have best chances to start in only few scenarios :
1) US and/or Israel attacks Iran
2) US/NATO attacks Syria
3) NK and SK will start a war
4) China attacks Taiwan
There are some other scenarios, like Russia attacks Georgia, or Argentina attacks Falkland, or India and Pakistan are at war, but there are fewer
chances then the above 4 scenarios.
On the above 4, only first 2 have a high probabilty to happend : an attack against Iran or an attack against Syria.Or both in same time or shortly one
after the other.
China and Russia have clearly stated that they won't stay aside if Iran or Syria are sttacked, and, since many people on ATS give to much credit to
Russia and China, i will assume that Syria and Iran will NOT be attacked because if Russia and China will intervene, this will lead to WW3, and my
point is to prove, LOGICALY, to anyone who (mindesly) hope that WW3 will not start, a Middle East War is inevitable.
Let's asume for a second that those who think that there will be no attack against Syria and / or Iran are right.
Let's also assume that Iran does not want nuclear weapons.
If the above 2 asumption are right, and no military attack is looming against Syria and / or Iran, that means that Iran will aquire nuclear knowledge
but will NOT use it to manufacture nuclear weapons, even tho they will KNOW how to do it...just to appease the ones who firmly believe that Iran does
not want nukes.
So, what will happend AFTER Iran have the capability to build nukes ?
1) they will NOT build nukes;
2) they will build nukes;
3) they SHARE the tech to build nukes with friendly nations;
4) they don't SHARE the tech to build nukes.
Let's apease those who think Iran will NOT build nukes or will NOT share the tech.However, Iran will know and will have the capability to build nukes
or to share the tech.
How will OTHER nations in Middle East will react to this ?
This is ONLY one answer, and its based on LOGIC : everyone will WANT at least the tech to BUILD NUKES.I don't imply that they will build nukes, just
that they will WANT to be able to do it.
Why is this logical ?
1) because Iran DID IT and NOBODY stoped them
2) If Iran CAN HAVE it , why don't WE CAN HAVE it also?
So, in time (1 to 20 years, depending on every country capabilities, Saudi Arabia being the first) there will be AT LEAST 5 countries in the Middle
East CAPABLE to BUILD NUKES (but they won't do it, because they are "peace loving people" ) :
Remeber, all those countries (to apease the supporters of Iran or anyone's right to aquire nuclear tech) will have the CAPABILTY to make nuclear
weapon, they will just DON'T do it.
However, here is WHY a MIDDLE EAST WAR is INEVITABLE :
How will Israel react to the above situation ? Will they accept a nuclear Iran (without nuclear wepoans ofc, they are "peace loving people") ? Will
they accept the same for Saudi Arabia ? Or Egypt ? Or Syria ?
Well, to apease the Israeli haters and the Arab lover...NO, Israel WILL NEVER accept this, because, duh, they are "warmongers, terrorists, they kill
children in Gaza, they are NOT peace loving people, they are CRAZY CRIMINALS".
When ALL current and former enemies of Israel will KNOW HOW TO BUILD and have the CAPABILITY TO BUILD nuclear weapons...WHAT EXACTLY STOP THEM TO MAKE
THEIR DREAM COME TRUE : TO DESTROY ISRAEL, or, to apease the Arab lovers, WHAT EXACTLY STOPS ISRAEL TO ATTACK IRAN because otherwise everyone will be
EMBOLDED by the lack of action, TO AQUIRE NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY and later the CAPABILITY TO BUILD NUKES?
So you see, a war in Middle East is INEVITABLE : either started by ISRAEL very very soon against IRAN, or later against SYRIA (after Syria gets the
tech from Iran) or even later against EGYPT or JORDAN ?
The problem here is that Israel have to choose between :
1) attack Iran soon = Middle East War = potential WW3.
2) do not attack Iran, EVER, but attack Saudi Arabia or Syria or Egypt or Jordan, who will be emboldened by Iran succes in nuclear technology = Middle
East War = potential WW3.
3) don't attack anyone, but live in a constant fear NOT only to be attacked by a nuclear Syria, Egypt, Iran, and / or Saudi Arabia but to be
destroyed in a first nuclear strike (this is actually imposible, because Israel will never accept that, i just inserted it to apease some lunatics
that believe Israel can accept this situation).
And for anyone who believe that there is the 4th option , one that EVERYONE in Middle East will have NUCLEAR technology AND LIVE IN PEACE WITH
ISRAEL...pls stop dreaming and wake up.
Arabs are not attacking NOW Israel because ONE BIG REASON :
Israel have NUKES and the ARABS don't have nukes.
Maybe i am stupid, or i lack logic.I know that i don't know (and nobody here knows) what is going on inside CIA, Mossad, White House and how the
future will REALLY BE.
All i now is that once Iran will be capable to build a nuke, everyone will want the same, and for Israel its game over , now or in 5 years or in
Would Israel WAIT for this to happend? Will they TRUST that Iran, and later other ME countries will ONLY have peaceful, energy only nuclear programms
and NEVER build nukes?
I don't think Israel will wait, and, the sooner they attack Iran (their BEST option) the better.Now, Israel have the edge...later, they will not.