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Originally posted by Xcalibur254
reply to post by ms898
It all depends on what demographic the candidate is appealing to. If they're appealing to a demographic that represents a consistent percentage throughout the state then they're numbers are going to remain fairly consistent regardless of the other candidates. On the other hand if your the people voting for you only represent a select demographic throughout the state your numbers are going to fluctuate. This is what you see with Paul and Romney. Paul played well in the rural areas. Romney played well in the urban areas. The way the person from the OP did their analysis only involved looking at the more rural areas and then extrapolating their projection from this data. This however ignored Romney's appeal in urban areas and Paul's decreased appeal in urban areas. As a result it could not be reflected in the projection.