This Hoax Effects Everyone!!!, page 8


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reply posted on 14-2-2012 @ 08:46 AM by ErgoTheConfusion
reply to post by seachange

Originally posted by seachange
I stopped watching after a couple minutes do to extreme wrongness by the Youtube author. You can easily predict the results on an election based on a sample size of 2,300. This is common sense. All the major polling companies regularly make statements about 300 million Americans based on sample sizes of rarely over 3,000 people. This is how statistics works.

There is no hoax, just people making wrong assumptions about polling that are false. The margin of error isn't based on the available maximum sample size. Everyone in statistics knows that. Just because you can get more samples doesn't mean you need to get more samples. The video author of the OP is simply wrong.

There is no hoax.


Originally posted by darkstar57
I hate being a skunk at this garden party, but I once taught statistics. I also agree with the sentiments and point of view of the majority of ATSrs. But the following is true.
2391 is adequate to give a plus or minus 3 percent at 95 pc confidence to a percentage of voters that voted for say, the Newt.
IF the exit polls were properly conducted and sampled.
www.ncpp.org.../4
check the link for the ifs that have to be answered to get an accurate and representative result.


Your reactions were my initial reactions as well. However you both also understand how awesome statistics are at manipulating our views and understandings (this should be an emphasized part of every statistics course, but it was glossed over in all of mine). Especially how drastically "projection" statistics swing with very subtle changes in source data and data collection methods.

However...

According to the actual vote data they were showing, they had more actual votes than exit poll votes. Yet they projected based on the exit poll numbers rather than their actual numbers. I can't tell for sure, but even if you merge the two it looks like their projection is still off from the actual numbers they had in front of them. It's right there.

Someone may want to argue that the exit polls were from a more complete sample set, but I will simply argue back that when you get to pick your samples (however "random"), the results shouldn't be used for anything. Only the actual votes and only project a winner when you have enough there is no mathematical way someone else could win.

Discourage voters by convincing them their side has already lost. Very old method going back as far as voting and a basic tenet of war. The best way to win the war is to convince the enemy you already have. Then if discovered later claim a mistake by the network(s) and apologize. Rinse and repeat.
edit on 2012/2/14 by ErgoTheConfusion because: (no reason given)




reply posted on 14-2-2012 @ 03:20 PM by Benchkey
reply to post by theindependentjournal



Keep in mind that this is not from the Vatican. It is from Most Holy Family Monastery, Schneider rd, in Fillmore NY. They are about 15 miles from my home.

Brother Diamond usually only comments on the errors of the Roman Catholic Church, so this video is a surprise. However their research and motives are most assuredly on the side of what is right.

I've no connection to them, but must say if you are interested in their opinions on the RC church, send them $20 and they will send you a large package of CD's and books which elaborate on their opinions. Hundreds of hours of reading and watching. Believe me when I tell you , you WILL be enlightened. How they survive without the Vatican shutting them down is beyond me. The bring out a significant portin of the Vatican's dirty laundry and deceptions.


reply posted on 15-2-2012 @ 12:36 AM by Longshots
reply to post by theindependentjournal



Wow! I'll never get back those first four minutes before stopping this naive conspiracy piece. Most political polls are conducted with less than 2000 participants and are very accurate. There is hard science in how they are conducted and it probably does seem doubtful to the uneducated. I guess the OP is suggesting the media has a time machine and goes forward to find out the winner, and then comes back to lead the story.


reply posted on 15-2-2012 @ 04:10 AM by DrinkYourDrug
Originally posted by chr0naut
reply to
post by theindependentjournal



I'm not an American, it really doesn't affect me.



You obviously have no idea how much influence the US government has over NZ laws and politics. Just look at the Kim Dotcom raids. NZ police serving the interests of US corporations. And the NZ SAS being led to the middle east...


reply posted on 16-2-2012 @ 06:46 AM by slanteye
reply to post by BLACKCLOUD21


I am not American but their foreign policy does have far reaching effect. One thing I noticed is whoever sits in the White House whether Republican or Democrats...it makes not much difference to the world at large because the policies would still be more or less the same. Why is this so?


reply posted on 16-2-2012 @ 09:28 AM by Saucerwench
reply to post by sitchin



I like Ron Paul's anti war stance tremendously, as I am totally anti these (sic) "wars", (actually, they are criminal violent home invasions in which robbery, rape, murder, take place) But I worry about his (to my knowledge, but someone correct me if I'm wrong) desire to give struggling citizens (especially those without 'bootstraps') even more struggle, with a Greece like austerity, while handing free reign to the robber barons of industry and commerce, 'thinking' that they will trickle down (like a golden..shower) all kinds of goodness to us, like a horn o plenty, once unfettered from taxes and REGULATION <( God help us).


reply posted on 23-6-2012 @ 04:29 PM by madenusa
reply to post by Redeemer



our vote wont matter untill we wake up and take control of our own money obama is only a puppet like all the rest,none of them want to end up like JFK. if we pull our money out of the banks they might listen.they need use to work for there money our votes a joke.


reply posted on 23-6-2012 @ 04:49 PM by madenusa
reply to post by TripleDoubleSingle



we need another JFK his moffia did a great job, he wanted it to be made in america let the other countrys buy from use while we were proud to work for what we got
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