Why Argentina WILL Invade the Falklands & How Iran are Involved

Originally posted by Power_Semi
Their airforce may be obsolete against modern fighters, but with no runway they are completely in control no matter how obsolete you might think they are, since there would be nothing else in the air.

I think the Argentinean airforce would only be in control when they were out of range of any UK air defence. A Type 45 would make short work of any nations airforce, let alone that fielded by Argentina, as would a prepared RAF regiment with Rapier batteries sitting in range.

How easy is it to take control of the air field? We can all fantasise about a pre-emptive strike being 100% successful, but that’s unlikely as the Argentine airforce lacks precision munitions. An attack by troops implies they would be able to keep it secret until it happens and the British forces in situ would be easily rolled over – something I would not want to experiment with.

A military option from Argentina is just too much of a gamble with the British forces and capability on the Islands, let alone what could be deployed if push came to shove, even in these times of defence cuts and austerity.

In reality, the worst the Argentines will do is be a royal pain, without stepping over the line that deserves a slap.

Regards

reply to post by paraphi

I hope you are correct in all your assumptions. I'm not so sure. My main concern is that the British government keeps sending all the wrong signals and is consequently encouraging Argentina. The most significant message was sent by scrapping the aircraft carriers and harriers. What that said was "If you take the Falklands you can keep them. We no longer have the will or the means to come down there and sort you out like we did in 82". Prior to that the defences on the island were not pivotal because Argentina knew that taking the islands was only the first battle in a war. Now they have been told that taking the islands is the end of it. This was a very dangerous and stupid message to send in order to save a relatively small sum.
Argentina would, without hesitation, sacrifice all of it's armed forces to take the Falklands. In 82 their regular forces displayed bravery, skill and determination - they weren't all conscript cannon fodder. Even as we speak, somewhere in the Argentine defence ministry is a team tasked with assessing the feasibility of invading the Falklands. It is busily testing scenarios and drawing up plans. Thanks to the penny pinching actions of UK government I don't think that this team will be sending wholly negative reports up the chain of command. My guess would be that their consensus is that an operation would be "Potentially feasible but risky".