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Why Argentina WILL Invade the Falklands & How Iran are Involved

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posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:41 AM
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I am British, I remember the first Falklands war, and I am growing increasingly concerned over Argentinas renewed sabre rattling and very aggressive rhetoric towards the Falklands.

Thinking logically you'd imagine there is no way that Argentina would invade again, but unfortunately logic often doesn't apply where people are involved, less so where politicians are involved...

but actually, looking at the facts and evidence, as circumstantial as it may be, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that Argentina are definitely preparing to invade the Falklands again, and I suspect that IRAN may be involved in this too.

Firstly why I believe that Argentina will invade:

PROPAGANDA:

In order to even think about invading the Argentine government would need firstly to get the people behind such an action.

One of the things I remember from the first Falklands war was seeing footage of large groups of people in Buenos Aires in the streets waving banners and chanting with nationalistic fervour (why do ALL dictatorships exhibit this behaviour?) - "LAS MALVINAS - ARGENTINA!", buring the British flag, etc.

Obviously this whips up a frenzy of "patriotic" feeling, gets the people behind the attack, and shuts up critics and dissenters, since they would be branded "unpatriotic".

What we're seeing now is EXACTLY the same thing on the streets of Buenos Aires.

I believe that these displays are totally staged. You don't need that many people really to give the impression that everyone is united behind it, it is pure propaganda to shape and manipulate public perception, behaviour, and thinking.

Secondly in these propaganda stakes, you have what I consider to be EXTREMELY worrying, and that is the renaming of the football league to "Crusero General Belgrano" (after the ship we sunk in the 1st war), and one of the football cups to "Gaucho Rivero," a "national hero" who in 1833 killed 5 British settlers on the Falklands.

Just think about the underlying messages there:

1) Dolce et Decorum Est - "What a great and glorious thing these men on the General Belgrano did, to give their lives for their country fighting for the Falklands."

2) Killing 5 British people on the Falklands makes you a national hero - What a great and glorious thing it would be to go and do the same thing - kill British people on the Falklands.

What other meaning can there be in renaming these and glorifying such aggressive actions?

You might think "so what, it's only the football league and cup!" but what you must understand is that in Argentina the government allow the broadcasting of football matches live and people can watch them for free.

It isn't like here where you have to pay (a lot of money) to a satellite network to see them, in Argentina EVERYONE can watch them for free, and consequently many do, which provides the Argentine government a great platform for propaganda - which they do by filling in breaks with stories and news of how great the government is, and whipping up nationalistic feeling, pride, and now undoubtedly anger and resentment.

MILITARY

Unfortunately Britains military machine, especially our navy, is much smaller than it was even during the first Falklands war. We only just managed back then, and so now it would be extremely difficult to launch a similar response should Argentina take the Falkland Islands.

Our only realistic chance is that we have what is widely regarded as the most advanced nuclear submarines in the world, and Argentina know that should they try to send a fleet to the Falklands they'd lose every single ship before they'd set 1 foot on the islands.

And so now you have Argentina complaining to the UN under the supposed gripe that "Britain is militarising the area" and with nuclear weapons (lets face it, we wouldn't have any military presence there if they hadn't invaded us in the first place).

What I believe they are trying to do is to force Britain to withdraw our nuclear subs to remove the last and only realistlic line of defence away from the Falklands - to pave the way for an invasion.

I also believe that Prince William has been put there to justify our sinking any invasion force that Argentina might send. In the last war there was a huge outcry, even in the UK, at the sinking of the Belgrano.

With our 2nd in line to the throne in danger, public opinion I think would be considerably different.

POLITICAL (including IRAN)

This time around Argentina feel they are in a strong position economically and politically to invade.

Firstly their economy is in much better shape than ours.
Secondly they have the backing of other South American countries, in particular Venezuela.

Venezuela and Iran have very close ties, they are against "US Imperialism" and very recently president Ahmadinejad & Hugo Chavez met during whch they mocked the US:

www.telegraph.co.uk... tml

With all of the tension in the middle east between Iran and the US over the straight of Hormuz (and Iran threatening to shut it), and the obvious outcome of military action should they shut it, you can see how Iran, Venezuela, & Argentina could all work together to their own benefit.

If Iran shut the Straight of Hormuz, AND at the same time, or shortly thereafter Argentina / Argentina and Venezuela invaded the Falklands, then it would split the US-UK alliance.

Britain would not be able to respond to both events, they would have to go to the Falklands and not be involved in Hormuz.

The US would then have to either deal with Hormuz by themselves, or with Israel, which would be a political nightmare.

World opinion would be hugely divided over 2 unilateral actions by the US & Britain, and the Arab world would be up in arms whether the US went it alone, or with Israel.

Our respective military capabilities and political justifications would be significantly compromised.

I think on balance of the way Argentina are stepping up rhetoric over the Falklands, and the alliance between Venezuela, Argentina, & Iran, that this is more possibility than flight of fancy.

My prediction is that Argentina are trying to set the stage for a Falklands invasion, and should Iran shut the Straight of Hormuz, or if any other events should kick off over there, then Argentina will invade, and that events involving Iran and the Falklands will be much more closely tied together than will be immediately apparent.

It could happen the other way around, with Argentina attacking first...

...or not at all, which would be the best outcome all around - I hope I've just got my tin foil hat on and am completely talking balderdash




posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:45 AM
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You really think that Britain would not retaliate because its too hard for them to get there?

That's funny.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:47 AM
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Originally posted by Kenrichaed
You really think that Britain would not retaliate because its too hard for them to get there?

That's funny.


Where did I say that?

What I said is that we do not have the capability - we do not even have an aircraft carrier in service at the moment - how do you fight a naval war without one?

Our only realistic chance would be to stop the invasion before it happened.

I didn't say we wouldn't respond or "it's too hard to get there" - what I am saying is we would hit them as they invaded because we do not have the military capapbility to take the islands back like we did last time.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:48 AM
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reply to post by Kenrichaed
 


no no, they can't, the super duper Iranians are like....super duper...they will send nuke after nuke with DNA targeting systems to eradicate everything except penguins....

You know they have mastered the dark side of the force, don't you. That is the secret to Islam. Really Muslims are sith lords and are trying to elect a dark emperor to lead them along with the clone trooper Argies.


I have just face palmed myself a bloody nose.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:49 AM
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reply to post by Power_Semi
 


i hope i'm not telling anything new here:

wake up, the Era of the Empire is over. Unless Cameron needs to have some young males killed in order to boost popularity, as happened during the first episode, there is no reason for a western island to claim another island that is part of a different region of the world. we have no business there.

(i hope you don't take offense, especially as i second lots of parts of the analysis you shared with us)



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:52 AM
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Originally posted by casenately
reply to post by Kenrichaed
 


no no, they can't, the super duper Iranians are like....super duper...they will send nuke after nuke with DNA targeting systems to eradicate everything except penguins....

You know they have mastered the dark side of the force, don't you. That is the secret to Islam. Really Muslims are sith lords and are trying to elect a dark emperor to lead them along with the clone trooper Argies.


I have just face palmed myself a bloody nose.


You should try reading what I wrote before making silly comments.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:54 AM
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Originally posted by NeverSleepingEyes
reply to post by Power_Semi
 


i hope i'm not telling anything new here:

wake up, the Era of the Empire is over. Unless Cameron needs to have some young males killed in order to boost popularity, as happened during the first episode, there is no reason for a western island to claim another island that is part of a different region of the world. we have no business there.

(i hope you don't take offense, especially as i second lots of parts of the analysis you shared with us)


I'm not making any comment over whether we rightfully own the Falklands or not (and actually we're not claiming it now we owned it before there was an Argentinian state), or whether the people of the Falklands should have the right to self determination, simply that I believe the Argentinians will invade, and why.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:55 AM
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Argentina will never get close with an invasion fleet. Subs and island missles will take care of them in short order so whether Britain could take back the islands is irrelevant.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:55 AM
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Have you seen the Argentinian naval dispositions ?

They haven't got an ocean going navy, just a collection of corvettes and some very unreliable destroyers of doubtful (and British) vintage. Their airforce is way understrength, their army is much reduced in number and trained/equipped as a UN peacekeeping force.

The idea that they will make a play for the îles Malouines militarily is risible.

The British, meanwhile, have such vacuous holes in their armed forces that they're overplaying their hand a bit, by sending Dauntless, an SSN and their pretty little prince.

All this grief for a worthless pile of rocks, some ingrate kelp eating sheep interferers & "national pride", whatever that is.

It's really getting silly.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:57 AM
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Originally posted by LeBombDiggity
Have you seen the Argentinian naval dispositions ?

They haven't got an ocean going navy, just a collection of corvettes and some very unreliable destroyers of doubtful (and British) vintage. Their airforce is way understrength, their army is much reduced in number and trained/equipped as a UN peacekeeping force.

The idea that they will make a play for the îles Malouines militarily is risible.

The British, meanwhile, have such vacuous holes in their armed forces that they're overplaying their hand a bit, by sending Dauntless, an SSN and their pretty little prince.

All this grief for a worthless pile of rocks, some ingrate kelp eating sheep interferers & "national pride", whatever that is.

It's really getting silly.


They don't need a navy that can fight, just something to act as troop carriers.

And they aren't worthless pile of rocks, it's now believed there are sizeable oil reserves there - which is undoubtedly what it's all about.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 10:59 AM
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How many have died from political rhetoric? It's a long and winding road from rhetoric to military action.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:00 AM
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reply to post by LeBombDiggity
 


Below is a picture of the massive oil drilling platform, Ocean Guardian, which has now arrived in the Falkland Islands:




Sixty billion barrels is a lot of oil. That’s 60,000,000,000 barrels of oil.

This is why they might try an invasion.

thevelvetrocket.com...



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:01 AM
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reply to post by Power_Semi
 


I did, I just don't agree. sorry I seemed like a jerk, I just don't see what you are saying. I don't like being dry. SO I thought I would incorporate a little bit of humor to express my sentiment. The Falkland's is an Argentina issue. They and not Brittan are starting this mess. Iran has nothing to do with it. I agree it was a silly comment. I still laughed while I wrote it though. I hoped you would too.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:05 AM
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reply to post by Kenrichaed
 


Nonsense. The Argentinians have nothing to invade those islands with.

And without some kind of agreement between England and Argentina, it'd be a brave oil company which would try to realise those oil reserves in the middle of what you ##snip## claim is the next war zone.

This is trumped up propaganda by the English because their beloved United Kingdom is about to cease to exist because Scotland's about to leave. So they need a tub thumping war to get their people flying union jacks and singing god save the queen.

Wag the dog
edit on Sun Feb 12 2012 by DontTreadOnMe because: Reaffirming Our Desire For Productive Political Debate (REVISED)



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:06 AM
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Falkland residents hold British nationality.If the residents ask for a change in their status, the UK would do everything it could to help them achieve it.

This microcosmography is correct.

Anyway if it escalate, the Argentinian wouldn't stand a chance.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:07 AM
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reply to post by LeBombDiggity
 


I don't claim its the next warzone and basically agree with what you just said. I was simply responding to the poster that claimed the Falklands were just a pile of rocks.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:07 AM
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It's quite simple, for once in it's history, the US will have to deal with the wars it provokes in the Middle East on its own, we have the overarching duty to protect our people, and since we have oil in the Falklands, closing the Hormuz may not be as big a disaster as it seems, since we will be able to sell our oil globally and make a large sum of money.

We should be placing missiles capable of striking deep within Argentine territory and anti shipping/air missiles around the coastline, so that whilst we are destroying the invading force, we can also be attacking Argentine infrastructure in their country such as hospitals, military bases, schools, government buildings and civilian dwellings. After the losses have piled up, the Argentines will have no choice but to withdraw due to public pressure.



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:12 AM
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I disagree; they will not go to war. Argentina are not struggling in terms of their economy, they have no real problems so the Falklands has gone to the top of the list. The politicians will use it to bring the people together for a common cause but they certainly would not want war. Besides that would pretty much be an invasion if those in the Falklands do not want that change. I think it is purely politics and I highly doubt any war will be waged; it would not end well for either side.


+6 more 
posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:12 AM
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The Brit ptb need to grow some balls, get our lads out of afghan and back home where they can re group and spend some time with there families, remind them why we fight for freedom... At the same time reqruit the captain of the costa Concordia to ship all the argies back to there homeland making a return trip for the Iranians.. Haha. Then stop all aid contributions to every nation it supplies and use the money to help all the families struggling in it's own counties... Severe all ties with the e u and get back to being self sufficient



posted on Feb, 11 2012 @ 11:13 AM
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Originally posted by Tattersley
The Brit ptb need to grow some balls, get our lads out of afghan and back home where they can re group and spend some time with there families, remind them why we fight for freedom... At the same time reqruit the captain of the costa Concordia to ship all the argies back to there homeland making a return trip for the Iranians.. Haha. Then stop all aid contributions to every nation it supplies and use the money to help all the families struggling in it's own counties... Severe all ties with the e u and get back to being self sufficient


Quoted because I cannot star twice.



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