I am British, I remember the first Falklands war, and I am growing increasingly concerned over Argentinas renewed sabre rattling and very aggressive
rhetoric towards the Falklands.
Thinking logically you'd imagine there is no way that Argentina would invade again, but unfortunately logic often doesn't apply where people are
involved, less so where politicians are involved...
but actually, looking at the facts and evidence, as circumstantial as it may be, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that Argentina are
definitely preparing to invade the Falklands again, and I suspect that IRAN may be involved in this too.
Firstly why I believe that Argentina will invade:
In order to even think about invading the Argentine government would need firstly to get the people behind such an action.
One of the things I remember from the first Falklands war was seeing footage of large groups of people in Buenos Aires in the streets waving banners
and chanting with nationalistic fervour (why do ALL dictatorships exhibit this behaviour?) - "LAS MALVINAS - ARGENTINA!", buring the British flag,
Obviously this whips up a frenzy of "patriotic" feeling, gets the people behind the attack, and shuts up critics and dissenters, since they would be
What we're seeing now is EXACTLY the same thing on the streets of Buenos Aires.
I believe that these displays are totally staged. You don't need that many people really to give the impression that everyone is united behind it, it
is pure propaganda to shape and manipulate public perception, behaviour, and thinking.
Secondly in these propaganda stakes, you have what I consider to be EXTREMELY worrying, and that is the renaming of the football league to "Crusero
General Belgrano" (after the ship we sunk in the 1st war), and one of the football cups to "Gaucho Rivero," a "national hero" who in 1833 killed
5 British settlers on the Falklands.
Just think about the underlying messages there:
1) Dolce et Decorum Est - "What a great and glorious thing these men on the General Belgrano did, to give their lives for their country fighting for
2) Killing 5 British people on the Falklands makes you a national hero - What a great and glorious thing it would be to go and do the same thing -
kill British people on the Falklands.
What other meaning can there be in renaming these and glorifying such aggressive actions?
You might think "so what, it's only the football league and cup!" but what you must understand is that in Argentina the government allow the
broadcasting of football matches live and people can watch them for free.
It isn't like here where you have to pay (a lot of money) to a satellite network to see them, in Argentina EVERYONE can watch them for free, and
consequently many do, which provides the Argentine government a great platform for propaganda - which they do by filling in breaks with stories and
news of how great the government is, and whipping up nationalistic feeling, pride, and now undoubtedly anger and resentment.
Unfortunately Britains military machine, especially our navy, is much smaller than it was even during the first Falklands war. We only just managed
back then, and so now it would be extremely difficult to launch a similar response should Argentina take the Falkland Islands.
Our only realistic chance is that we have what is widely regarded as the most advanced nuclear submarines in the world, and Argentina know that should
they try to send a fleet to the Falklands they'd lose every single ship before they'd set 1 foot on the islands.
And so now you have Argentina complaining to the UN under the supposed gripe that "Britain is militarising the area" and with nuclear weapons (lets
face it, we wouldn't have any military presence there if they hadn't invaded us in the first place).
What I believe they are trying to do is to force Britain to withdraw our nuclear subs to remove the last and only realistlic line of defence away from
the Falklands - to pave the way for an invasion.
I also believe that Prince William has been put there to justify our sinking any invasion force that Argentina might send. In the last war there was a
huge outcry, even in the UK, at the sinking of the Belgrano.
With our 2nd in line to the throne in danger, public opinion I think would be considerably different.
POLITICAL (including IRAN)
This time around Argentina feel they are in a strong position economically and politically to invade.
Firstly their economy is in much better shape than ours.
Secondly they have the backing of other South American countries, in particular Venezuela.
Venezuela and Iran have very close ties, they are against "US Imperialism" and very recently president Ahmadinejad & Hugo Chavez met during whch
they mocked the US:
With all of the tension in the middle east between Iran and the US over the straight of Hormuz (and Iran threatening to shut it), and the obvious
outcome of military action should they shut it, you can see how Iran, Venezuela, & Argentina could all work together to their own benefit.
If Iran shut the Straight of Hormuz, AND at the same time, or shortly thereafter Argentina / Argentina and Venezuela invaded the Falklands, then it
would split the US-UK alliance.
Britain would not be able to respond to both events, they would have to go to the Falklands and not be involved in Hormuz.
The US would then have to either deal with Hormuz by themselves, or with Israel, which would be a political nightmare.
World opinion would be hugely divided over 2 unilateral actions by the US & Britain, and the Arab world would be up in arms whether the US went it
alone, or with Israel.
Our respective military capabilities and political justifications would be significantly compromised.
I think on balance of the way Argentina are stepping up rhetoric over the Falklands, and the alliance between Venezuela, Argentina, & Iran, that this
is more possibility than flight of fancy.
My prediction is that Argentina are trying to set the stage for a Falklands invasion, and should Iran shut the Straight of Hormuz, or if any other
events should kick off over there, then Argentina will invade, and that events involving Iran and the Falklands will be much more closely tied
together than will be immediately apparent.
It could happen the other way around, with Argentina attacking first...
...or not at all, which would be the best outcome all around - I hope I've just got my tin foil hat on and am completely talking balderdash