posted on Feb, 10 2012 @ 12:29 AM
I've been a viewer of the GOP races without having any candidate I particularly support. It's been an interesting race so far, filled with come backs,
uncertainty, division, and one thing I've hear plenty of is this idea that this race my verywell lead to a brokered convention. However there is an
article that makes a good account of the chances of a brokered GOP convention actually happening:
Could the GOP nomination battle end up in a brokered convention? That's the hot question on pundits' minds these days. The correct answer is that
there's a chance a brokered convention could occur, but it is exceedingly slim.
To understand why, we need a quick reminder on the Republican nomination system as it exists for 2012. Basically, the Republican National Committee
looked enviously at the lengthy Democratic primary from 2008 -- which strengthened the Democrats by forcing candidates to conduct registration drives
and set up infrastructure in all 50 states -- and decided that a longer primary system would benefit the GOP as well.
So, it decided to require primaries and caucuses held prior to April 1 to allocate delegates through a proportional representation system. To greatly
oversimplify, a candidate who receives at least 25 percent of the vote in any given state will receive that same percentage of the delegates (some
states have a 20 percent viability threshold, and some states will have “mini-races” in each congressional district). A total of 1,277 delegates
will be awarded prior to April 1, so it is nearly impossible for a candidate to rack up the 1,145 delegates needed to win the nomination outright by
the end of March.
The RNC also wanted to avoid a situation such as what occurred in 1976, when neither Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan had claimed a majority of the
delegates by the time of the Republican National Convention, and the uncertainty surrounding the nomination process allowed Jimmy Carter to claim a
double-digit lead in the polls. Therefore, after April 1, states are free to allocate their delegates as they choose. Most of them will do so via some
variant of a winner-take-all system, although some (Rhode Island, Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, New Mexico and South Dakota) still use a
An advised read for ATSers, there are a number of good points. I think the GOP has too much riding in these elections, they're not going to tolerate a
brokered convention at all. I think if it gets to the point where there is still uncertainty about the nominee by say June, July, the GOP's very own
super delegates will cooperatively step in. I'm sure Paul is hoping for a brokered convention, it looks like this is the main priority for his
campaign, but looking at what the GOP has riding in these elections, I think the wealthy backers, the investors, will not tolerate such a thing at
edit on 10-2-2012 by Southern Guardian because: (no reason given)