reply to post by MrXYZ
You say 3.5% is SMALL
Let's actually look at the numbers
US population is 313,031,000
# of people polled is 1004
3.5% of 313 031 000 = 10 956 085 people
3.5% of 1004 = 35.14 people
So basically the margin of error based on USA population is almost 11 million people
Let's use 3 examples Gallup, CNN & PEW
Your
Link
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Gallup poll .... 53% support 45% oppose .... 53 + 45= 98% so we will assume 2% undecided
Adding 3.5% as maximum possible margin of error
support 49.5%
oppose 48.5%
undecided 5.5%
--------------------------------------------------------
CNN poll .... 51% support 47% oppose ...... 51+47=98% so we will assume 2% undecided
Adding 3.5% as maximum possible margin of error
support 54.5%
oppose 50.5%
undecided 5.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------
PEW poll 45% support 46% oppose ....... 45+46=91% so we will assume 9% undecided
Adding 3.5% as maximum possible margin of error
support 48.5%
oppose 49.5%
undecided 12.5%
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Let's test the margin of error and manipulate the numbers
Gallup Poll
if we manipulate in your favor
support 56.5%
oppose 41.4%
with a possible undecided range of 2% - 5.5%
if we manipulate in my favor
support 49.5%
oppose 48.5%
with a possible undecided range of 2% - 5.5%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
CNN poll
if we manipulate in your favor
support 54.5%
oppose 43.5%
with a possible undecided range of 2% - 5.5%
if we manipulate in my favor
support 47.5%
oppose 50.5%
with a possible undecided range of 2% - 5.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
PEW poll
if we manipulate in your favor
support 48.5%
oppose 42.5%
with a possible undecided range of 9% - 12.5%
If we manipulate in my favor
support 41.5%
oppose 49.5%
with a possible undecided range of 9% - 12.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seems to me 3.5% is not such a small margin of error after.
What numbers are the correct ones??????
Maybe now YOU understand polls and statistics better.
1004 people is not a sufficient sampling based on a population of 313,031,000 people
Big difference between 35 people and 11 million people as a margin of error
