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In late 2010 QuakeFinder decided to accelerate its mission of saving lives by forecasting major earthquakes. To do that, it would build and deploy as many new sensors as possible. The goal is to install 100 instruments per year for the next five years, and to capture and analyze signals related to three more earthquakes.
QuakeFinder's research is focused on electromagnetic signals that have been shown to exist when rocks are placed under extreme pressure. This theory, developed by researcher Dr. Friedemann Freund at NASA Ames, has been confirmed in both laboratory (small rocks) and field (large boulder) experiments. QuakeFinder has recorded data before, during, and after several major earthquakes and has confirmed that signals very similar to those observed in the laboratory and field experiments are present before and during these quakes. These results are published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.
QuakeFinder is not yet able to make forecasts of impending earthquakes. The network expansion is intended to increase the body of evidence for the identified precursor signal signature and to allow further refinement of methods for interpreting the data. The group intends that this will lead in time to a robust system that will provide warnings days or weeks before major earthquakes.
Although our predictions are intermediate-term and by no means imply a “red alert”, there is a legitimate concern about maintaining necessary confidentiality. We assume that you will take care of it in a standard way distinguishing professional discussion from premature release in the media.
he Algorithm M8 was designed by retroactive analysis of the seismicity preceding the greatest (M8+) earthquakes worldwide, hence its name. It is based on a simple physical scheme of prediction, which can be briefly described as follows: Prediction is aimed at earthquakes of magnitude M0 and above. We consider different values of M0 with a step 0.5. Overlapping circles with the diameter D(M0) scan the seismic territory. Within each circle the sequence of earthquakes is considered with aftershocks removed [ti, mi, hi, bi(e)], i = 1, 2 ... Here ti is the origin time, ti =Mi >=Mmin(С). They depict different measures of intensity in earthquake flow, its deviation from the long-term trend, and clustering of earthquakes. These averages include: N(t), the number of main shocks; L(t), the deviation of N(t) from the long-term trend, L(t) = N(t) - Ncum(t-s)x(t-t0)/(t-s-t0), Ncum(t) being the cumulative number of main shocks with M >= Mmin(С) from the beginning of the sequence t0 to t; Z(t), linear concentration of the main shocks estimated as the ratio of the average diameter of the source, l, to the average distance, r, between them; and B(t) = max[bi], the maximal number of aftershocks (a measure of earthquake clustering). The earthquake sequence [i] is considered in the time window (t - s', t) and in the magnitude range (M0 - p, M0 - q). Each of the functions N, L, Z is calculated for С = 20 and С = 10. As a result, the earthquake sequence is given a robust averaged description by seven functions: N, L, Z (twice each), and B. "Very large" values are identified for each function using the condition that they exceed Q percentiles (i.e., they are higher than Q% of the encountered values).[b]An alarm or a TIP, “time of increased probability”, is declared for five years, when at least six out of seven functions, including B, become "very large" within a narrow time window(t - u, t). To stabilize prediction, this condition is required for two consecutive moments, t and t+0.5 years. The following standard values of parameters indicated above are prefixed in the algorithm M8: D(M0)=[exp(M0- 5.6)+1]0 in degrees of meridian (this is 384 km, 560 km, 854 km and 1333 km for M0 = 6.5, 7.0, 7.5 and 8 respectively), s = 6 years, s' = 1 year, g = .5, p = 2, q = .2, u = 3 years, and Q = 75% for B and 90% for the other six functions. The running averages are defined in a robust way, so that a reasonable variation of parameters does not affect the predictions.
Our first results show that on March 8th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data and an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting on this day in the lower ionospheric there was also confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3-11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground based ionosondes, which return to normal after the main earthquake. We found a positive correlation between the atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies and the Tohoku earthquake. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere /ionosphere to the Great Tohoku earthquake.
The current goals of the Institute are the following.
Scenarious of development of instability in hierarchical nonlinear (chaotic) system: theory and numerical simulation.
New generation of earthquake prediction algorithms, with tenfold increase of accuracy. This is based on integration of modeling, phenomenology, and neotectonics. Instability/seismicity of platforms.
Reconsideration of instability for the sites of high-risk construction. Monitoring of stress-strain field in seismic regions.
Kinematic and geometric incompatibility in the fault system. Interaction with civic protection authorities in estimation of seismic risk and in earthquake prediction.
Geophysical fluid dynamics: interplay between mantle flows and surface processes.
New state-of-the-art broadband seismograph (now being tested in Belgium and UK).