West Coast USA: Pay Attention, Cascadia May Be Ready to Rupture

reply to post by geotrician


An M4 just affects its immediate surroundings, so it would only trigger things nearby. If you're looking at the M4 as the sign of unrest, still, the closer to the megathrust, the more likely any activity would be trigger the megathrust. However, an M4 by itself just doesn't mean all that much. An M3 even less.

We may get no warning whatsoever.

So, consider the 2001 Nisqually M6.8 as an intraslab earthquake that is updip from earlier large intraplate earthquakes. Doesn't this indicate something about the state of stress in the plate interface and necessarily mean something when considering the next megaquake?

Originally posted by geotrician
So, consider the 2001 Nisqually M6.8 as an intraslab earthquake that is updip from earlier large intraplate earthquakes. Doesn't this indicate something about the state of stress in the plate interface and necessarily mean something when considering the next megaquake?

The Nisqually quake was actually down dip of the tremor zone, which is down dip of the locked zone. It's true that some earthquakes can influence the stress around the locked zone, but the locked zone has a very large edge, and the chance of any one small change triggering the M9 is very small.

I don't expect anyone here to believe my account, or to believe in premonitions, or to believe in doomsaying, etc.

But I wanted to share a semi-paranormal experience from last fall.

I was working on an image for my blog in the cruddy program MPaint, and showing the bottleneck stress points on the Cascadia microplate, also called Oregon or Juan de Fuca microplate.

At the moment I published this image in November, there was a small but significant (4.0?) earthquake just SW of Vancouver Island, precisely where one of the two stars in my picture were drawn.

Then, this year, we had not one but two earthquakes that matched my drawing scenario almost exactly.
There were quakes at the southern bottleneck near Oregon coast, and another very large pair off of Vancouver Island, the same spot I predicted could generate a large wave into Puget Sound (UNLIKELY worst case scenario I admit).

I don't necessarily believe that we are close to this earthquake, but I cannot explain this "paranormal" experience except by saying this:

~I might be decently good at predicting things based on common sense, journals and graphs, and the dangers of the place I live (typical selfish humanimal lol).
~I might be able to pick up electromagnetic change in the local aurora.
~I might have dog hearing or something going on and sense the changes in the local vibrations in the earth below.
~I could be having contact with the dead, a departed soul, or the dream lives and fears of local geologists (lol interesting theory eh?)
~Wotan sometimes warns of death events by the way... (but that is crazy talk)



Let me just link you the article and part of it:

from the weblog nuclearnuttery .wordpress .com (type it in to visit i am not posting url and getting in trouble)

AboveTopSecret.com Going Nuts Over Cascadia EQ Risk — I wasn’t the only one who “noticed”.
Posted on March 3, 2012

In November 2011 I predicted a scenario in which the Juan de Fuca microplate might endure a two-stage “weakening event” involving the North and South “Bottleneck” areas of the fault. You probably know which areas I mean, the narrowest portions of the top and bottom of the plate. These areas are 1.) SW of Vancouver Island directly across from Puget Sound and 2.) slightly southwest of Portand OR. My drawing showed the quake too close to Portland; in actuality it was 100 mi or so south? Anyway the picture showed a “double-whammy” with stars indicating a weakening or subduction warning at both ends. What I did not predict was the size of the Vancouver quake last month. My picture was actually showing what I believed to be “worst case scenario” for Puget sound. If this pattern was to be repeated with a series of 8.0+ quakes, we will be in serious trouble. There will be an “Omni-Directional” tsunami that will hit everything from alaska to japan to mexico. I hope I am wrong and that we all live a long time without this having to happen. But anyway I thought you should see the ATS thread and see their reasons for being concerned. Many of the posters live in the area affected and are informed. www.abovetopsecret.com...




Scary huh? Let me find my drawing:

from my other article:

Another Vancouver Island Safety Update — Juan de Fuca has been having 4.0+ Bottleneck Stress Quakes at each end for about a month. Due to lava vent formation it’s hard to know how significant a motion the shaking really indicated.
Posted on February 15, 2012





and another:

Cascadia Update – WIKIPEDIA reports UPGRADED RISK – Looking at “Transform Faults”, “Connected Faults”, “Domino Effect Seismicity”, “Subduction and Strike-Slip Disasters”, “Lateral Blasts and Masonry”, and “SUPERMOON”! Yay!
Posted on January 18, 2012



From wiki (wow wtf lol check this out):
Forecasts of the next major earthquake

Recent findings concluded the Cascadia subduction zone was more hazardous than previously suggested. The feared next major earthquake has some geologists predicting a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9 or higher in the next 50 years;[13]

however, the most recent studies suggest that this risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8 or higher.[14][15] Geologists have also determined the Pacific Northwest is not prepared for such a colossal earthquake. The tsunami produced may reach heights of approximately 30 meters (100 ft).[16]

I had no idea how severely the local authorities were underplaying this risk.
What is an appropriate way of responding to the threat of a lateral blast, lahara hazard, and 9.0+ threat?

continued from above:

How Much Quake Does It Take to Trigger a Lateral Blast from an Elevated Active Volcano? Was Nisqually 2001 a MegaQuake Precursor? Also — Looking at the “Clathrate Gun Hypothesis” (for #s and giggles). How Do Developed Nations Plan to Fight Eco-Terror and Corporate Resistance to Fuel Alternatives?
Posted on January 6, 2012







**UPDATE@Bottom: The Lake NYOS Effect and Eco Terrorism Today** Cascadia Subduction Zone, Silent Earthquakes, Mid-Plate “THUNDER” Sounds, Megathrust Precursors, Needs More Study. AT BOTTOM: GLOBAL WARMING/CARBON FRAUD AND SEISMIC TERRORISM?
Posted on November 10, 2011

Nov 3rd UPDATE, Oregon Microplate 3.1 Quake — Oct 31 Studying “THE GONG EFFECT”. Seattle/Vancouver Island Region Not Quaking With Rest of “RING OF FIRE” REGION — Are we holding stress? **ALSO — LOOKING AT CHEROKEE RATTLESNAKE PROPHECIES**
Posted on October 31, 2011

____________________

much of this won't make sense,
but i think some of it will make enough.
the drawing @ nuclearnuttery.files.wordpress.com...
was created in NOVEMBER 2011 and the article attached to it was also created then.


AH here is the ORIGINAL ARTICLE from November, it was kinda hard to find in my site LOL:

**UPDATE** Can Humans Sense Remote Earthquakes or Hours-Away Quakes? BOTTOM. Also, Oregon Microplate Risk — Please Watch Closely if in PNW. **Mag 4.0 Strikes Across from Vancouver Island** Scientists could be looking too low for megaquake epicenter.
Posted on November 23, 2011

nuclearnuttery.wordpress.com... ntists-could-be-looking-too-low-for-megaquake-epicenter/



thanks for being respectful and tolerant of other people's religious experiences

Source

reply to post by nonnez

Thanks for posting this Nonnez, amazing that there hasn't been any chatter regarding this. I see that in the Mt. St Helen's area there was a small quake also. The Seattle area seems to have quake a few small quakes on the map.

reply to post by AuntB


Yeah, it is as if everyone that should be commenting has disappeared off the face of the Earth . I had expected a few opinions by now on the matter.

Originally posted by nonnez
reply to post by AuntB

 

Yeah, it is as if everyone that should be commenting has disappeared off the face of the Earth

. I had expected a few opinions by now on the matter.

Oh, didn't you hear the news? They all got serious and went to another thread! I mean never mind that quake is right in the P path and a little bigger than usual. Nah. What warning. Ain't no one getting no warning. There was nothing ever to see here and so everyone has moved right along...

Good riddance I tell ya.

Lol. JUST kidding.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Nothing unusual about the event. Just do an event plot for 2000-2012 with the magnitudes bracketed from 2.8 to 3.5 and you find several events in the nearby area, as well as many more of the same size elsewhere along the margin.

I do find it interesting that the little tremors that took place last week, always said possible quarry blast- or something like that. I did notice that there was slight activity during the weekend. They were all very shallow but there 'maybe' activity. Or maybe it is nothing to bother with as goe said. But there is another thread that is predicting quake activity in the next week or so, with the possibility of Vancouver or Seattle being affected.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
Whether this is a valid theory or not, I find it interesting.

reply to post by AuntB

Why don't all of you who want to understand earthquakes and the earth just spend a little time reading some good books on the subject or surf the thousands of legitimate online web sites that try to educate the public on such matters? Or is every thought just fear based? I am really amazed at the nonsense that ATS propagates.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Hey, I went camping for 2 days up in the mountains and look what happens. Don't really feel comfortable with that 3.3 completely out of place.

Originally posted by Anmarie96
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

Hey, I went camping for 2 days up in the mountains and look what happens. Don't really feel comfortable with that 3.3 completely out of place.

Oh Anmarie, how COULD you even bother to look at the historical seismicity chart and see that quakes happen all the time, a dime a dozen in that boring spot?

neic.usgs.gov...

I mean, they are soooo common there, the whole entire map at that spot is just completely covered in quakes! What are you, blind or something?

reply to post by geotrician
Either you are joking or just being plain rude. First things first, ATS happens to be a conspiracy site, half of what you read is speculation, thoughts or just plain nonsense. I am not an earthquake guru, but I do read and I do try to learn. But ask the "experts" on some Fragile Earth topics a question, one must be prepared to be treated like #. I do not post on Quake Watch 2012 for that reason. And I only posted once on the serious discussion thread but I do read it. This thread happens to be more of a speculation thread and one can post what you would probably deems as stupid and irrelevant, but some of us learning and we can feel free to ask the basic questions.

Because nice matters!

Aren't many of these earth quakes and volcanic activity caused by the Pacific Ring of Fire acting up?

If something does happen, I hope that you and your loved ones are safe and well prepared. :/

reply to post by TrueAmerican


TA seems to have brewed himself a very large cup of sarcasm today.

Originally posted by TMG333
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

TA seems to have brewed himself a very large cup of sarcasm today.

Well what was I supposed to do? The coffee ran out!

Seriously, my biggest mistake with this thread is I should have put it in Skunk Works. Outrageous, completely non-true speculation it has turned out to be so far... But I swear if in the next couple of months the big one hits, and these quakes and more forthcoming ones turn out to be foreshocks... This will about sum up my feelings at that point:

reply to post by TrueAmerican


No........this thing is right where it needs to be.....keep up the good work!

And on second thought.....that monster is going to bust sooner then later

reply to post by radpetey


At least there is some confirmation in the "Quake Watch" thread that the 3.3 EQ in Washington yesterday was worth mention . . . for what that is worth anyway. I thought the depth was about, right on, for the zone to keep an eye on at the very least.