What if Iran strikes first?, page 1

Tehran wishes to protect its nuclear developmental capability and infrastructure, its infrastructure is most vulnerable (short term) to the large strike options deployable from Israeli airbases and US carrier strike groups in the region.

Its capability for development is, I would argue, most vulnerable to regime change rather than covert actions over the long term, as in the latter case it can gradually alter and adapt internal security basing and arrangements against relatively infrequent opposition.

Its capability to protect infrastructure is most vulnerable to an advanced adversary with initiative, putting it on the back foot straight away, wearing away its limited tech air and limited quantity ground assets in a defensive posture until no more remains.

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To its advantage,

It has a lot of IRBMs, Israel has known locations for basing fighters and tankers, and though it has the amazing Arrow 2 ABM they are still acquiring PAC 3 and THAAD i.e. it considers its missile defense currently incomplete versus worst case.

Abe Lincoln groups composition will be known from the straits passage recently, the T-45 Daring has not yet reached the Persian Gulf and unable to lend its terminal active missiles to the group, AEGIS is not impregnable to massed missile attack, there comes a point when not enough bandits can be illuminated.

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1) War Games of Surface to Surface Missile roll out to south Iran (ongoing in Real Life at the moment?) and deployment of Fast Attack Boats fanning out from the straits westward, deployment of fishing vessels and other covert surveillance boats from ports in south to spread across the Gulf, erect mobile relayed communications for the "war games".

2) Wait to find the location of the Abe Lincoln

3) Mass FABs for attack once location confirmed

4) Abe Lincoln Group attacks FABs (what choice does it have not to attack 40+ FABs that pose a credible and imminent threat), FABs may get lucky and strike just one AEGIS platform that makes SSM attack much more credible.

5) Release to press that Iran is under attack

6) Target every SSM to Abe Lincoln Group / FAB group, we are talking hundreds of ballistic and sea skimming missiles here, send in the mini subs if the groups speed is reduced or a free for all for remaining navy if the group breaks into parts.

7) 1st salvo; Launch every solid IRBM at Israel airfields, if enough tankers and fighters are damaged the retaliation package will be smaller and less capable.

8) Jericho and Tomahawk (fast response) from subsurface Gulf and the groups in the Arabian sea decimate military and nuclear fixed surface infrastructure

9) 2nd salvo; Retaliate against Israeli reactor with all remaining mobile (dispersed) liquid IRBMs

10) Claim nuclear ability breakthrough, ask for Russian troops to enter north of country to prevent global nuclear escalation / invasion, plead for mutual defense pact, sell soul to Putin etc.

Well thats a set of hypothetical first strike options, based on that the Abe Lincoln group has sailed within range of nearly all their surface to surface missiles it means they have a chance to sink it, and perhaps make it look like we started it by forcing our hand. The Israelis have around 150 modern aircraft to conduct a long range strike against hardened targets but aircraft are vulnerable on the ground and a pre-emptive strike could damage that option. Obviously these are based in hardened hangars but the scale of the assault would be very very vast, something I didnt convey very well in the 10 point plan.