Originally posted by GogoVicMorrow
reply to post by MrWendal
Do you think he will win a state? I have been hoping and have a slight thought that he might get one.
Hopefully the poor showings in these establishment touting southern states don't hurt himin the ones he has a chance in. Ifhe could just win one this
whole thing could be turned upside down.
So again.. do you think he will win one? Which one?
This is a very fair question and the short answer is yes I do.
I disagree with the premise that he has had a poor showing in the Southern States, but this opinion is really based on the 2008 results. In both SC
and Florida, Ron Paul doubled the 2008 results. That is a very large jump in a 3 year time period. In New Hampshire Ron Paul placed 2nd with 22.9%
and a total vote count of 56,848 votes. In 2008 in New Hampshire Ron Paul took 5th place with 7.8% of the vote and a total of 18,308 votes. I think
the math really speaks for itself and this is why I really do not look at Florida or South Carolina as something lost.
As far as what States I think Ron Paul will carry, I would bet the farm on Puerto Rico, but I am sure that is not exactly the answer your looking for.
I like Paul's chances in Nevada, but I would not be surprised if he gets another 2nd place finish. Romney took 51% of the votes in 2008 and Paul took
2nd but with 13.75%. That is a lot of ground to make up, but Paul has had very very good organization there since 2008. In any event Nevada, just like
Iowa, is a Caucus. Therefor delegates are not pledged to any Candidate until the Convention.
I am very interested in Nevada's results. The polls are wrong now, just like the polls were wrong in 2008. I do not say this because Ron Paul is
"my guy". I say this because it is a fact. In 2008 prior to the Nevada Caucus the polls showed John McCain in first with 22%. Rudy Giuliani (18
percent), Mike Huckabee (16 percent), Mitt Romney (15 percent), Fred Thompson (11 percent) and Ron Paul (6 percent). The actual results were MUCH
different. The actual results were Romney (51%), Paul (13.73%), McCain (12.75%), Huckabee (8.16%), Thompson (7.94%), and Giuliani (4.31%). So I ignore
the current polls and I look more towards factors. It's a Mormon area, Romney is expected to get the Mormon vote again. Paul has had strong
organization in the State since 2008. In my opinion, anything less than 30% for Paul will be a big disappointment.
I expect Ron Paul could win Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Oregon, Idaho, South Dakota and New Mexico. These are
all States in which Paul placed 2nd in 2008. Thus far, looking strictly at the results, we can expect improved numbers in all these States. Therefor
these are all good possibilities for Paul to actually win the State and as I said previously, I would bet the farm that Paul will take Puerto Rico,
which is much more important in this election cycle due to it's amount of delegates and the fact that States like Florida and New Hampshire both lost
delegates due to moving up their Primary dates.
I also expect strong showings in the States were Paul took 3rd in 2008 which is North Dakota, Utah, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Washington, Virginia,
Wisconsin, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina, Washington DC, Puerto Rico.
The main thing to remember here is not wins and losses. It is delegates. Iowa's can not be counted. New Hampshire was 9 Romney and 3 Paul. South
Carolina was 23 Gingrich and 2 Romney. Florida is being contested. So in reality, there really is no clear front runner when what is needed is 1,214
delegates.
