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Jet Lag: What's Causing One of the Driest, Warmest Winters in History?

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posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:19 PM
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Why is it so warm this winter in the USA?

Scientist may have an answer.
The jetstream is straighter then it usually is,instead of dipping south like it does in the winter.
This is because of the Artic Oscillation.
And it affects the North Atlantic Oscillation.
It all ties in together.
en.wikipedia.org...





The chief suspect behind the mysterious weather is an atmospheric pressure pattern called the Arctic Oscillation, which circles the high Northern Hemisphere. Its lower edge is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Together, the related features influence the path and strength of the jet stream. The jet itself is an air current that flows west to east across the northern latitudes of the U.S., Europe and Asia, altering temperature and precipitation as portions of it dip southward or crest northward. A strong jet stream that flows in a somewhat straight line from west to east, with few southward dips, prevents cold arctic air from drifting south. "The cause of this warm first half of winter is the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded," according to Jeffrey Masters, a meteorologist who runs the Weather Underground, a Web site that analyzes severe weather data.


www.scientificamerican.com...


Meteorologists are not certain what causes the oscillations to vary so dramatically. Some scientists say the loss of Arctic sea ice due to global warming is causing the Arctic Oscillation to drop in pressure. Others have noticed a correlation with sunspot activity, which was very low in December 2010 and very high during December 2011, although they haven't proposed a mechanism whereby sunspots would directly alter the Arctic Oscillation.


Hard question to answer.
Is it global warming,or is it increased sunspot activity?
edit on 31-1-2012 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:24 PM
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it wasnt just the usa here in australia we had a realy warm winter



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:28 PM
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Strange Winter indeed especially here in So Cal. It goes from being cold in the early morning to hot and dry during the daytime. There was snow along the San Gabriel mountain range, but in a few days it was gone. Nice sunny weather, but still strange especially for this time of year when its suppose to be the coldest.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:38 PM
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I have been keeping a mental record of when sunspot activity hits the earth, and our temperatures here in west Texas. I notice that the temperatures spike up into the upper 60s / lower 70s when the sunspots are supposed to be hitting Earth during this winter, and cool back down to normal averages when they aren't. Back in the fall, we had some pretty hot days during sun spot times.

Of course, this is anecdotal and not hard scientific evidence, but I am inclined to believe that sun spots are the cause of this. If the activity slows down before winter is through, look out.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:41 PM
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A better explanation of it.
Here is a graphic of what I'm talking about.





An unusual region of atmospheric pressure over the Arctic has kept the polar jet stream (green) locked up at far northern latitudes, causing a warm, dry U.S. winter.


www.scientificamerican.com...



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:45 PM
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reply to post by FissionSurplus
 


Wow,very nice observations.

Keep it up FissionSurplus.

So,according to your observations,an increase in sunspot activity does contribute to the change in the weather patterns,not fact,just by observation.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:53 PM
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My part of the US (SW Ohio) is stuck in a very strange warm trend this winter.
Normally it's miserable this time of year, today we hit 58F and all week is forecasted in the 40-50's.
trees are trying to bud, it's not healthy for nature.
It is an El Nino year, but this is crazy.
But we are not dry at all, wayyyy above normal, both last year and so far this year. Pouring rain now.

Nice graphics for simple people like me to understand, thanks Kdog.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:53 PM
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reply to post by kdog1982
 


Interesting article kdog.

I have been wondering why we who live in Western New York (Buffalo Area) haven't been crapped on by tons and tons of snow this winter. It is highly unusual, as by this time, we usually have at least a foot of hard pack snow on the ground. As I type this, the outside temperature is still 51 degrees at 10:51pm EST.

I had been suspecting that sunspots may have something to do with this, but I'm going to propose another theory (which has a very sketchy basis in science, so bear with me). Is it possible that the slight magnetic pole shift last year (the one that affected airports in FL) has something to do with this change in weather? It might not have anything to do at all with that, but perhaps someone who is more informed than I am about these topics might be able to chime in.

At least I have some sort of "answer" as to why I don't have to dig my truck out of the snow every morning before work.



-TS



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 09:58 PM
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Originally posted by tetriswoooo
it wasnt just the usa here in australia we had a realy warm winter


Aren't ya'll in summer now?

Pardon my southern accent writing.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:11 PM
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Well here is a little picture on the north atlantic oscillation.
Scroll to the left on the pic and notice that it is getting warmer.





The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia. The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low. The corresponding index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years.


www.ldeo.columbia.edu...



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:12 PM
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Our meteorologist here in Central AR says its a La Nina year,and the colder air has stayed up north.When this happens we usually see an early start to severe weather.


 
Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com
 



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:14 PM
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I foresee a "The Day After Tomorrow" scenario starting to unfold. If the next two winters are warm too i will start to get worried.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:16 PM
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reply to post by kdog1982
 


This is the benefit of early retirement and having the internet and the wide open spaces outside to observe. I'm a bit of a weather geek, always watching the weather. When I see that sun spots are due, I notice the local weather has to update their expected highs for those days by perhaps 4 - 5 degrees.

I've never felt the winter sun feel so flipping hot. Today I could have gotten a sunburn within 10 minutes of sun exposure. It always correlates...sun spots hit Earth, weather becomes hotter. I should go back and check the daily highs for the last 6 months and correlate with sun spot exposure in the western hemisphere. I'm sure if it was in graph form, there would be a positive correlation between the two seemingly unrelated phenomena.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:17 PM
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Also a graphic depicting the difference between a negative and positive NOA system.

A negative




And a positive



edit on 31-1-2012 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)

edit on 31-1-2012 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)


www.ldeo.columbia.edu...
edit on 31-1-2012 by kdog1982 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:18 PM
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reply to post by kdog1982
 


maybe the government is using the harp tech and weather modification technology to save us from the radiation from fukishima. hence, diverting the jet stream.


I hope so.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:26 PM
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It was 65 today near SE Pennsylvania I was amazed especially when it was 32 only a few days ago.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:27 PM
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Originally posted by TransplantedArkansan
Our meteorologist here in Central AR says its a La Nina year,and the colder air has stayed up north.When this happens we usually see an early start to severe weather.


 
Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com
 



We have already seen that,haven't we,with tornadoes and severe weather in January.
More than usual and further north than usual.



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:28 PM
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the strange weather is caused by a combination of forces/factors...
the La Nina of course,
but the trade winds & jet streams are being affected by an outside & more powerful force
which is the Earth's inclination of Its' orbit in relation to the Sun


just as some eras are abnormally cold... we are in the abnormally hot era---
because of the planets changing orbit... both the eccentricity and the inclination are different now than
what was normal for the last ~26,000 years


look it up



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:33 PM
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Originally posted by St Udio
the strange weather is caused by a combination of forces/factors...
the La Nina of course,
but the trade winds & jet streams are being affected by an outside & more powerful force
which is the Earth's inclination of Its' orbit in relation to the Sun


just as some eras are abnormally cold... we are in the abnormally hot era---
because of the planets changing orbit... both the eccentricity and the inclination are different now than
what was normal for the last ~26,000 years


look it up


So you are saying we are entering a different era,with the change in the inclination of the earth or the precession of the earth.We are entering a "warming period" versus a "cooling period" ?



posted on Jan, 31 2012 @ 10:37 PM
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reply to post by kdog1982
 


The warming period will cause the cooling period because eventually the jet stream could stop or something like that.



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