Massive US Military Buildup on Two Strategic Islands: Socotra and Masirah, page 1

Massive US Military Buildup on Two Strategic Islands: Socotra and Masirah

While quietly casting lines to draw Tehran into talks on their nuclear dispute, President Barack Obama is reported exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and Washington sources to have secretly ordered US air, naval and marine forces to build up heavy concentrations on two strategic islands – Socotra, which is part of a Yemeni archipelago in the Indian Ocean, and the Omani island of Masirah at the southern exit of the Strait of Hormuz.

they are witnessing the heaviest American concentration of might in the region since the US invaded Iraq in 2003.

Up to 100,000 US troops present by early March

Then, 100,000 American troops were massed in Kuwait ahead of the invasion. Today, those sources estimate from the current pace of arrivals on the two island bases, that 50,000 US troops will have accumulated on Socotra and Masirah by mid-February. They will top up the 50,000 military already present in the Persian Gulf region, so that in less than a month, Washington will have some 100,000 military personnel on the spot and available for any contingency.
US air transports are described as making almost daily landings on Socotra and Masirah. They fly in from the US naval base of Diego Garcia, one of America's biggest military facilities, just over 3,000 kilometers away. The US military presence in the region will further expand in the first week of March when three US aircraft carriers and their strike groups plus a French carrier arrive in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea: They are the USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Carl Vinson, USS Enterprise and the Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
A fourth US carrier will be standing by in the Pacific Ocean, a few days' sailing time from the water off Iran's coast.

The very last article is the kicker........

Dubai police chief foresees imminent Gulf-Iran war of attrition over oil routes

26 Jan. Military tensions in the Persian Gulf shot up Thursday, Jan. 26, when Dubai police commander Gen. Dhahi Khalfan said on Al Arabiya television that an imminent Gulf war cannot be ruled out and first signs are already apparent. "The world will not let Iran block Hormuz but Tehran can narrow the strait to the maximum," he said. debkafile: The Iranian operating formula says that as the oil embargo on Iran tightens, the Revolutionary Guards will gradually narrow the oil tankers' shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz. There is much skepticism in Saudi Arabia and Dubai about the ability of the American navy and Gulf forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz open at all times. The expectation is that between February and July, a war of attrition will develop between the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

This is the worst of all possible scenarios in the sense that it will disrupt the flow of oil for an extended period.
This will absolutely no doubt stall or reverse any progress at recovery except of course in the military weapons industry.........Debka isnt exactly a source known for its neutrality however......
I think anything they source must have some merit, depending on the source...(not sorcha )
This dubai police chiefs estimation may be the nearest thing to what will really kick in soon, as neither side wants full scale war for the obvious reasons...They are both banking on the others lack of resolve in the face of protracted sparring.
The advantage goes to Iran in this instance for now, but by july there will be expanded special forces troops
available to do hit and run harrassment....as well as set up inside Iran itself with the co operation of the resistance, or PKK or other revolutionary groups in Iran.
It is also possible that Sunni irregulars will be hired to enter Iran for operations...(the bitterness of the Iran-Iraq war is still fairly fresh in some circles.)
Isreal too has spec ops forces in or around Iran...(training the Kurds for sure)
Turkey and Iran are increasingly at odds these days as well.....
Incirlik air base is a good place to launch black ops from as well as other airports around Iran which host US forces.
The danger of protracted hostilities of a low key nature is that the Iranis will engage in a crash program to produce and deploy the bomb.(or obtain some from underground sources....ie N Korea, or the former russian muslim countries.or PAKISTANI MUSLIMS!
Should there be an eruption of fighting , it would be best if the allies were to roll up tehran with overwhelming force,destroy their ability to defend their airspace, and lay waste to all the atomic facilities they can before this aim can be accomplished.
Witnout support of the Russian or Chinese forces, i believe that the aim may yet be accomplished.
BUT NOT WITHOUT THE USE OF SOME NUCLEAR WEAPONS.......
Regardless of who starts the conflict, i have absolutely no doubts that nukes will be used.
What the consequences of would be is pretty obvious to all........
There is no way we can cripple and or destroy Irani facilities with the bunker buster bombs in stock according to the defence sec of the US.
Without nukes, they would be obliged to attack these facilities in waves of planes, dropping bunker bisters down the same hole the first started, then following it up with a nuke of some description....probably tactical....
This would reduce fallout, and also contaminate the site for future use , but maybe only temporarily.
There is noreason that Iran has not already developed a bomb on the sly....we have no idea how far along they are...
Perhaps they couldnt missilize one, but they may be able to get one as far as Hormuz......