posted on Jan, 28 2012 @ 01:14 PM
The very last article is the kicker........
Dubai police chief foresees imminent Gulf-Iran war of attrition over oil routes
26 Jan. Military tensions in the Persian Gulf shot up Thursday, Jan. 26, when Dubai police commander Gen. Dhahi Khalfan said on Al Arabiya television
that an imminent Gulf war cannot be ruled out and first signs are already apparent. "The world will not let Iran block Hormuz but Tehran can narrow
the strait to the maximum," he said. debkafile: The Iranian operating formula says that as the oil embargo on Iran tightens, the Revolutionary Guards
will gradually narrow the oil tankers' shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz. There is much skepticism in Saudi Arabia and Dubai about the
ability of the American navy and Gulf forces to keep the Strait of Hormuz open at all times. The expectation is that between February and July, a war
of attrition will develop between the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
This is the worst of all possible scenarios in the sense that it will disrupt the flow of oil for an extended period.
This will absolutely no doubt stall or reverse any progress at recovery except of course in the military weapons industry.........Debka isnt exactly a
source known for its neutrality however......
I think anything they source must have some merit, depending on the source...(not sorcha )
This dubai police chiefs estimation may be the nearest thing to what will really kick in soon, as neither side wants full scale war for the obvious
reasons...They are both banking on the others lack of resolve in the face of protracted sparring.
The advantage goes to Iran in this instance for now, but by july there will be expanded special forces troops
available to do hit and run harrassment....as well as set up inside Iran itself with the co operation of the resistance, or PKK or other revolutionary
groups in Iran.
It is also possible that Sunni irregulars will be hired to enter Iran for operations...(the bitterness of the Iran-Iraq war is still fairly fresh in
Isreal too has spec ops forces in or around Iran...(training the Kurds for sure)
Turkey and Iran are increasingly at odds these days as well.....
Incirlik air base is a good place to launch black ops from as well as other airports around Iran which host US forces.
The danger of protracted hostilities of a low key nature is that the Iranis will engage in a crash program to produce and deploy the bomb.(or obtain
some from underground sources....ie N Korea, or the former russian muslim countries.or PAKISTANI MUSLIMS!
Should there be an eruption of fighting , it would be best if the allies were to roll up tehran with overwhelming force,destroy their ability to
defend their airspace, and lay waste to all the atomic facilities they can before this aim can be accomplished.
Witnout support of the Russian or Chinese forces, i believe that the aim may yet be accomplished.
BUT NOT WITHOUT THE USE OF SOME NUCLEAR WEAPONS.......
Regardless of who starts the conflict, i have absolutely no doubts that nukes will be used.
What the consequences of would be is pretty obvious to all........
There is no way we can cripple and or destroy Irani facilities with the bunker buster bombs in stock according to the defence sec of the US.
Without nukes, they would be obliged to attack these facilities in waves of planes, dropping bunker bisters down the same hole the first started, then
following it up with a nuke of some description....probably tactical....
This would reduce fallout, and also contaminate the site for future use , but maybe only temporarily.
There is noreason that Iran has not already developed a bomb on the sly....we have no idea how far along they are...
Perhaps they couldnt missilize one, but they may be able to get one as far as Hormuz......