Hahahahaha (Sarcasm for the thin skinned) - US economy only grew .8%

Q4 GDP Misses Estimates, Inventory Stockpiling Accounts For 1.9% Of 2.8% Q4 US Economic Growth

Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Savings Rate
The US economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace in the supposedly blistering fourth quarter, yet the number was a disappointment not only in that it missed estimates of 3.0% (and far higher whisper numbers) but when one looks at the components, where a whopping 1.94% of the upside was attributable to a rise in inventories as restocking took place. And as everyone knows in this day and age a spike in inventories only leads to sub-cost dumping a few months later. In other words, the economy grew at a 0.8% pace ex inventories. Yet for all intents and purposes, this is considered "growth." Personal consumption was also weaker than expected coming in at 2.0% on estimates of 2.4%. Perhaps the only silver lining was Core PCE which came at 1.1% on expectations of 0.9%, however as discussed extensively before, this was driven by an unsustainable surge in credit-binge spending, primarily for iStore trinkets, and is hardly sustainable especially as the US Savings Rate fell to 3.7% in the fourth quarter, the lowest since Q4 2007. In other words Joe Sixpack is living large, especially since Joe Sixpack no longer has to pay his mortgage. Unfortunately this is a collision course with every economic principle and the next taxpayer funded bank bailout is only a matter of time. Bottom line: the artificial economic pick up is over and Q1 will see inventories actually detract from GDP: as a reminder Q1 2011 GDP subtracted 1.8% points from the final 0.4% GDP, and that was following only a 0.9% inventory rise in the preceding quarter, Q4 2010. And that is not even mentioning the tight fiscal situation no longer being a benefit to growth. Oh yes, and gas is no longer falling. And not to even mention that the GDP deflator mysteriously imploded from 2.6% to 0.4%: that's odd - not even edible ipads seem to be coming down in price. Which means that using a reslitic deflator would have resulted in virtually no GDP growth. To paraphrase Lester Burnham, "It's all downhill from here."



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reply to post by pityocamptes


I heard something about that on the news this morning, and the part that caught my attention was that the main reason for this "growth" was a surge in inventories. What did they expect? These were 4th quarter numbers. What's in the 4th quarter? Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas. Every store out there stocked up. And since personal consumption was down at roughly the same rate as inventory "growth" during the same period, the end result is going to be a no brainer.

No discernable growth.

Some people know that I'm at the tail end of a real estate "career" and they're shaking their heads wondering why I'm getting out of that game. It's a losing proposition at this point with no silver lining in the foreseeable future. When the economy goes downhill, so do the prices of houses because THAT inventory isn't moving. They're not selling and they're not making any more. Basic supply and demand economics. The taxes are going to go up as the values drop. Trust me, states and counties are going to get theirs through those tax revenues. That's just how that ship sinks and I can't help it if other people don't listen to reason. The economy in general and real estate are joined at the hip. Always have been. Do some research and you'll see that as goes the economy, so goes real estate. All in all, this news doesn't really come as a shock to me because the unemployment numbers aren't really getting any better either. And this is the way it basically goes: The unemployment numbers have to get better before the economy numbers get better before the real estate numbers get better. And only then will the numbers in real estate, and the local economies, get better wherever the highest gains in employment are. And where is that going to be? Major metropolitan areas for the most part.

The rich get richer for a reason. They understand economics and know how to manipulate them in their favor.

The poor get poorer for a reason. They don't, so they can't.

Fair enough, report the facts - but I don't think there's any need to be so smug about it, especially the 'hahaha'.

Why do you take pleasure in American's misfortune?

Originally posted by fiflad
Fair enough, report the facts - but I don't think there's any need to be so smug about it, especially the 'hahaha'.

Why do you take pleasure in American's misfortune?

Wrong! I find it comical that the media and Admin spew GROWTH, when it DECLINE - I was being sarcastic...

reply to post by pityocamptes


Most americans will have very few nice words for someone who is relishing in the fact of possible American difficulties and struggles. I personally think that any one who relishes in other's misery is an unlikable person. After reading the snarky title, I refused to read the thread.... Just sayin'....

reply to post by fiflad


He's only hurting himself and the number of views he can get. If he removed the "hahahahaha" form the title, maybe the mods would move it from the off topic forum into the "Other current events" forum where this belongs.




or maybe the mods could do it for him? ( Nod nod, wink wink)

Hello, McFly?? I said I was being sarcastic - you do know what that means, correct? Its comical when you hear media, stats, and everyone else wround saying GROWTH - it is not GROWTH, we are in a decline, and continue to be in a decline. So many people with thin skin...