Direct Hit By Ivan Could Put City Under Water

New Orleans is situated at 9 feet below sea level.
This could be a really devastating situation.



Over 420 miles of shoreline are on alert.
This could be very bad.

[edit on 9-14-2004 by Valhall]

Ivan will be very bad no matter where it hits. It has devastated the Islands of the Caribbean (sp?) and is now in the warm Gulf waters gaining strenght.

This is not the first time that New Orleans is threatened, no?

My questions are what is the height of the levees and what is the height of the expected storm surge? Will salt water destroy the local environment if it is flooded by seawater?

I'm hanging out in Baton Rouge and was just having a conversation about this today. Don't want to sound pessimistic, but I am fairly certain the storm will do some major damage in New Orleans anyway.

[edit on 15-9-2004 by Jamuhn]

From what I am hearing there is a large potential that the storm may stall out somewhere over the Tennessee Valley and just flood that area with as much as 36" of rain. The reason that was given was the front moving in from Missouri would halt the progress of the storm.

This information was reported by a Sally Russell of the Weather Channell

I was born and raised in New Orleans........grew to adulthood there and went through Betsy in 1965..........scary storm to an 8 year old. Camille in 1969 was even worse. It hit the Mississippi coast 90 miles away and we were still getting hurricane force winds in NO. We lost power that night, but got it back mid-morning the next day (after Betsy the city had no electricity for more than 2 weeks....in a heat wave with long lines, but surprisingly equally long tempers, for ice). The helicopter footage on TV was mind-blowing........the entire area between Gulfport and Biloxi had been obliterated. Dead and rotting bodies were festooned from the leafless trees that had somehow not been uprooted by the storm.

The highest points in the city are 12 - 16 feet above sea level and are close to the river. In fact, that site was chosen because it was the first suitable dry ground when travelling up the Mississippi river upon which to build a city when it was founded in 1718. In other words, even though the average elevation for the metro area in general may be 9 - 10 feet below sea level (actually, if memory serves me right, the average is more like 6 feet below MSL), most of the older, historic parts of the city are high enough to avoid catastrophe.

This may be small comfort to suburbanites in Jefferson and St. Bernard whose homes may be laid waste and where those who choose to remain may not survive the storm if its track carries it on a "worst case scenario" course, but the city core (which includes the French Quarter and Bourbon Street for all you selfish hedonists) should survive OK, albeit with whatever wind and street flooding damage might occur.

As I write this, the projected track takes Ivan straight into Mobile Bay, which would spare New Orleans but devastate Mobile. My prayers and thoughts are with everyone who will be affected by this storm.

Half of the forecast cone seems to be heading towards the panhandle (the right-hand side).

Here is a probability chart (thank you NOAA).
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

The city with the highest probability of being struck is Buras Louisiana. I wish the best of luck to all of you out there, I'll be praying.