DJIA to Fall 4,000 Points in 2012, Granville Says

DJIA to Fall 4,000 Points in 2012, Granville Says

www.bloomberg.com

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Granville, a technical analyst who has been publishing the Granville Market Letter from Kansas City, Missouri, for more than 40 years, talks about the outlook for the U.S. stock market. He speaks with Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

(visit the link for the full news article)

Doom is on!!!!! I believe it will go much, much lower... wait until oil shoots through the roof...

Funny how volume is down. Interesting times... So DOW at around 8K by years end? Hmmmm.... Obama may not get it again... I'm sure QEx will be coming hot and heavy!!!

Summary of his earlier today Bloomberg TV interview:

*Market has topped last Friday

*Time to get short

*Cash is another option

*Dow will be dropping ~1000 points each quarter until it reaches March 2009 lows.

(WATCH THE VIDEO AT LINK)

www.bloomberg.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

reply to post by pityocamptes

If it only falls 4000 points that would be mild considering the state of the US and foreign economies. Nice find, thanks for sharing!

Then there is this:

Bob Janjuah

www.bloomberg.com...

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bob Janjuah, global head of tactical asset allocation at Nomura International Plc, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy and equity markets. He speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg)

Stock market is ultimately run on confidence.
high level people can create a bear market with just a spoken word at the right time (or bull). Ultimately if they are airing loudly prominent people saying the market is about to tank, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

So, why does this guy want the market to go down is the question...who is he helping (alternatively, who is he hoaxing).

The market is a very complex system, but the bigger picture shows its not that complex..its imaginary..and if you add in the overtone of a nightmare, the illusion does indeed become a nightmare...not because of some complex mechanics doing so, but because the suggestion is there.

Now, the better question is, does the stock market effect main street? they keep telling us it does, but I have yet to see it (positive effect anyhow when it does well) in the past 10 years.

Seems like alot in my opinion. I'm in the Hydraulic / Pneumatic distribution
business which primarily focuses on Oil and Gas industry (halliburtons, caterpillar, etc) Food and Beverage
Industry, etc and it BOOMING. In addition to that everyone I talk to in my personal life
seems to be telling me the same thing. Companies are hiring and buying.... I don't know, I personally
thinks 2012 is going to be a good year. 2013-2014 is where I think the downturn will be. Our business tends
to "rock-n-roll" for 5-7 years and then we have a year like 2008 which sucked very bad, but always bounces back. I was talking to my boss who has been in this business for 60 years says this has been the routine since he's been doing. 5-7 years of record setting numbers, then 1 - 1 /2" years of not making crap and the bottom dropping out......but always rebounds. I don't know.

Funny how articles like this (and the announcements) come AFTER the markets close... hmmmmm....


www.businessinsider.com...


Get ready for bank downgrades and the fact that derivative purchases are GOING UP!! - to the tune of 1.14 quadrillion dollars, as of current, with an average increase of 110+ Trillion added for every six months...

Originally posted by SOUTH44
Seems like alot in my opinion. I'm in the Hydraulic / Pneumatic distribution
business which primarily focuses on Oil and Gas industry (halliburtons, caterpillar, etc) Food and Beverage
Industry, etc and it BOOMING. In addition to that everyone I talk to in my personal life
seems to be telling me the same thing. Companies are hiring and buying.... I don't know, I personally
thinks 2012 is going to be a good year. 2013-2014 is where I think the downturn will be. Our business tends
to "rock-n-roll" for 5-7 years and then we have a year like 2008 which sucked very bad, but always bounces back. I was talking to my boss who has been in this business for 60 years says this has been the routine since he's been doing. 5-7 years of record setting numbers, then 1 - 1 /2" years of not making crap and the bottom dropping out......but always rebounds. I don't know.

A relative of mine is in mining, he has indicated that EVERYTHING they pretty much produce is being bought by China, and no one else. Kodak is going [belly] up, etc ... I don't see things as getting better...

reply to post by SaturnFX


I thought what fueled the market was volatility. The ups and downs get traded on. These guys don't necessarily want the market to crash but rather see key indicators that say it will. This is no secret and many have thought this. My response is we have heard this from the doomers and gloomers but not respected Wall Street commentators.

WOW 1q drop to 1,000 thats sticking the neck out there

This is the calm before the PERFECT STORM RIPS everything apart!!! Hell, today was the lowest NYSE volume of the year (-24% from Friday - OPEX). It was also the lowest non-holiday-period volume in 9 years based on Bloomberg's NYSEVOL data.

reply to post by pityocamptes


Depends on the severity of the next leg in the European Recession .. if it's a pretty big contraction it could throw the World Economy into a tailspin, tanking the USA and Asia with it. Easy way to watch to see where it's heading is the GDP contractions in states that cannot "stimulate" .. IE .. PIIGS. Spain and Ireland being the most stable, I'd look to them to see how the economy is fairing. When we see large contractions and states not able to stimulate their way out of the mess, we will see a huge uptick in jittery investors fleeing equities.

Did someone mention it depends on the severity of the European recession?

Better hope this outlook doesn't come to pass:

'An apocalyptic end to the Euro could occur within the next 3-6 months'

If you're hearing this on Mainstream Media I'd bet things go the other way. It's when they are bullish on the market that I think things will drop. That's been the MSM pattern. Don't forget that a mere 5 companies own the worlds media. They won't let the markets get scared if they won't gain by it. This year may be volatile, but TPTB still have things under their thumb for now. I'd agree we still have a year or 2 before we really hit the skids.

Granville mentions the low volume of trading. Low volume trading means the big boys can more easily affect the market with their own moves since it takes less money on low volumes to effect a change upward.

It seems everybody is hopping on the "Bad News" bandwagons these days because it drives big sales of newsletters and investment funds. Don't get me wrong. Things are bad, and this summer might be the start of the real leg up for gold/silver, but we've got some slack in the rope before we hang ourselves.