Following New EU Sanctions, Iran Says Closing The Strait Of Hormuz Is Now Its Legal Right, page 8

reply to post by shapur

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.....And guess who started the game!

Bankers?
That would be my guess.
Controlling all the money transactions involved in oil sales and now even the pipeline that it is transferred through.

reply to post by CrikeyMagnet

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If that's the case then why are there UN resolutions condemning Iran for not complying and there are IAEA Reports that clearly state that Iran is developing nuclear weapons?

www.telegraph.co.uk...

From the IAEA website:

The IAEA is going in a constructive spirit, and it's asking Iran to display the same attitude. There is a lot of work to do," she told reporters.

Yesterday, two Iranian lawmakers stepped up threats their country would close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for oil sanctions on Tehran.

The Iranian warnings came as EU nations agreed in Brussels on an oil embargo against Iran as part of sanctions over the country's controversial nuclear programme.

"Obviously, one visit by the IAEA after all this time can't constitute a complete substantive cooperation and transparency that we, the international community, the IAEA, are calling for," she told reporters.

Observing that the proof will be in the pudding, Nuland said one has to see whether the IAEA gets into the sites it wants to see, gets the information that it wants to have.

"You know what we're still looking for. We're still looking for real demonstration that Iran's programme is purely peaceful," she said.

Nuland said the IAEA has been in and out of Iran for years and has yet to be fully satisfied with regard to Iran's programme.

"There were a huge number of questions raised by the November report. They will be seeking to answer those questions, and it's incumbent on Iran to be supportive," she said in response to a question

www.iaea.org...

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1737
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1747
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1803
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1929

en.wikipedia.org...

All passed due to Iran's failure to comply with requests relating to it's nuclear weapon programme.

en.wikipedia.org...

Expressing deep concern about Iran’s lack of compliance with its previous resolutions on ensuring the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme, the Security Council imposed additional sanctions on the country today, expanding an arms embargo and tightening restrictions on financial and shipping enterprises related to “proliferation-sensitive activities”.

Iran has NOT been fully complying and is deliberately leading the UN Inspectors on a wild goose chase.

To paint Iran as so badly done to and as the victim of international bullying is highly inaccurate and typical of those that see the US / UK as the evil behind everything that happens in this world.
And Iran plays on that.
Iran wants to be able to bully and intimidate it's Sunni neighbours and to belittle the US etc.

Whilst not being soley to blame Iran must take a large portion of the blame for the current scenario.

But despite all that I've posted, personally I believe that sanctions will prove ineffective and the only people who will suffer will be the ordinary and everyday Iranians, and that is just wrong no matter which way you look at it.

reply to post by Xcathdra

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Actually the sanctions give companies a 6 month extension to find alternate sources of oil. They cant buy Iranian oil after the 6 months.

EU doesn't dictate to the companies of the world, only those under its control. There are many countries that have no intentions of reducing their trade with Iran. They have six months to negotiate crude purchase agreements with Iran for additional crude.

Its one of the reasons Saudi Arabia and several other oil producing countries have been discussing a ramp up in production to offset Iranian oil loss on the world market.

Preparing for a potential loss is fine. But there may be no actual loss. India and China may end up buying all the Iranian oil freed up by EU, probably at better prices, while reducing their imports from other Gulf states and EU could buy from these states that India and China freed up.

reply to post by Xcathdra

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When it comes to nation relations a government can dictate to industry. The EU move only affects EU countries, the US affects the US, Japan Japan etc etc etc.

A 6 month waiver can be obtained, which iirc Italy has done.

The countries with waivers have an additional 6 months in order to find alternative sources of oil. This has been explained over and over.

Is this a case of "creative stupidity"? Why do you have to "explain" something over and over to someone who exhibited an understanding of it before you attempted it?

China has already turned the screws on Iran by demanding they lower the price of their oil to what China wants. I am going to guess India will most likely follow suit as well.

India is not known for exploiting the first available opportunity to take advantage of the unexpected disadvantage of another country, but yeah, that can happen.

If the objective of the sanctions was to get cheaper crude for India and China, sure they would succeed. Iran itself won't hurt big. They sure wouldn't be reaping the benefits of the recent bonanza in oil prices, but that will be a disappointment at best.

If OPEC countries increase production to account for Irans loss, then there really is no issues with the supply and demand, since nothing has been lost.

Its entirely possible for the price of oil to fall since we now have added production on the world market.

OPEC doesn't have the surplus production capacity to offset a complete cut off of the Iranian supplies to EU, it is only about a 3rd of Iran's oil exports to EU. If the demand for non-Iranian oil from India and China doesn't go down by that much or more, oil prices will increase, not decrease. But that is the bed EU and US are making. They can lie in it.

reply to post by Xcathdra

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Because people like you dont seem to understand the concept of nation to nation relations and like to make claims that aren't true. You then continue to go down the same road after being corrected. Gee - I wonder why.

Can't help you with your reading comprehension disability.

THe goal was not to help India or China obtain cheaper crude oil.

Then they have a funny way of going about it.

The Us has heavily petitioned both India and China to get on board with the sanctions.

And they decided to ignore it.

As I said China is already demanding heavy discounts from Iran in order to keep China as a customer.

Meaning they will end up getting cheap crude, since Iran can be expected to cave in. What was the objective of the sanctions again?

Actually opec does have the extra capacity as a while to offset loosing Iran's oil on the market. Brazil has also just inked a deal with China over their increased oil production and Canada is looking at doing the same thing if the US doesn't snag it first. The US is also for the first time in a long time exporting refined oil (gasoline) from decreased demand here at home.

There is more than enough production to offset Iran's loss.

Wonder why the sanctions are to come into force only from July?

reply to post by Xcathdra

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You raised the issue not me, so the comprehension issue would be on your side not mine.

If you saw an issue I never raised, the comprehension problem is evidently yours.

Speaking of comprehension problems. Again the sanctions on Iran were not designed by the West to allow cheaper oil for China.

What part of "Then they have a funny way of going about it." are you failing to comprehend?

To deprive Iran of their main source of revenue, which is exactly the effect the sanctions are having. Their oil exports revenue is the bulk of their income for discretionary spending. Even selling oil to China at discount wont make up for the loss of cash flow.

Since the sanctions haven't started yet, they can't be having effect. Now, can they? Iran like every oil exporter has been a reaping a bonanza in recent years because of the high oil prices. A few years ago oil was selling at half today's price and it was still above OPEC target price. Iran has huge trade surplus. Given all that, they won't be starved of any necessary income. The worst that can happen is their trade surplus will come down and even that may not happen if they can manage to sell extra oil to China even at a discount, however steep it may be. Since China cannot afford to completely cut off Iranian oil without shooting itself in the foot, she too has only a small negotiating capability regarding the price.

Net effect: Marginally reduced savings for Iran. Cheaper oil for China.

To give Iran time to come back to the negotiation table and comply with requests to try and avert military action.

What is supposed to bring them back to the negotiation table, sanctions or the threat of sanctions. If it is the actual sanctions, Iran can't be expected to return to the table until they begin and effect felt i.e only after July 1. So why is the date not today? If it is the threat, why are the sanctions not conditional on Iran resolving the outstanding issues? Meaning even if Iran comes to the table and resolves all issues raised the sanctions may still go into effect because no condition has been set. So why would Iran bother when the sanctions go into effect anyway?

All of this info is in the news so im not sure why you want to rehash it here?

Because unlike some, I can think for myself don't have to believe the crap fed to me?

Source

Originally posted by Observor
If you saw an issue I never raised, the comprehension problem is evidently yours.

Apparently your lost. Go back and read and get back to me.

Originally posted by Observor
What part of "Then they have a funny way of going about it." are you failing to comprehend?

That the sanctions are not designed to benefit China with cheaper oil. Please try and pay attention.

Originally posted by Observor
Since the sanctions haven't started yet, they can't be having effect. Now, can they?

US sanctions were signed into law at the end of December. The EU sanctions are in effect as of January 20th, China has reduced their import of Iranian oil by almost 50% (China is the top buyer of Iranian oil btw), Japan, who stated they will stop importing oil as soon as possible, Italy, which is in compliance with EU policy is the top European importer of Iranian oil,.

So yes they have started.

Originally posted by Observor
Iran like every oil exporter has been a reaping a bonanza in recent years because of the high oil prices. A few years ago oil was selling at half today's price and it was still above OPEC target price. Iran has huge trade surplus. Given all that, they won't be starved of any necessary income. The worst that can happen is their trade surplus will come down and even that may not happen if they can manage to sell extra oil to China even at a discount, however steep it may be. Since China cannot afford to completely cut off Iranian oil without shooting itself in the foot, she too has only a small negotiating capability regarding the price.

Oil revenue makes up the bulk of Irans budget, including discretionary spending on their programs, which includes their nuke program. Sanctions wont shut Iran down, but they will inhibit their ability to fund their nuke program at 100% without having to cut spending elsewhere to make up for the lost oil revenue.

Originally posted by Observor
What is supposed to bring them back to the negotiation table, sanctions or the threat of sanctions. If it is the actual sanctions, Iran can't be expected to return to the table until they begin and effect felt i.e only after July 1. So why is the date not today? If it is the threat, why are the sanctions not conditional on Iran resolving the outstanding issues? Meaning even if Iran comes to the table and resolves all issues raised the sanctions may still go into effect because no condition has been set. So why would Iran bother when the sanctions go into effect anyway?

As I stated the bulk of Iran's budget is from oil revenue. The sanctions will slow down their progress, which buys time to get them to comply with their IAEA and NPT obligations. If they are so transparent then why have they kept out IAEA inspectors? Why have they been caught with programs on nuclear detonations, why have they refused to allow their scientists to speak with the IAEA inspectors? Why did they keep IAEA inspectors out of the country over the last year?

When the talk of oil sanctions came up, Iran immediately did an about face and let inspectors back in. However they are still denying them access to certain sites, which again is a violation of the IAEA / NPT agreement.

Originally posted by Observor
Because unlike some, I can think for myself don't have to believe the crap fed to me?

Thats to bad... Apparently doing things on your own has not helped you out either.

reply to post by Xcathdra

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You began replying to a post of mine that said

Originally posted by Observor
They are essentially giving non-Western importers of Iranian crude six months to negotiate crude purchase agreements with Iran.

with

Originally posted by Xcathdra
Actually the sanctions give companies a 6 month extension to find alternate sources of oil. They cant buy Iranian oil after the 6 months.

Enough said!

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