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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. A graduate of the University of Michigan, he specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is also one of the authors of the selectorate theory, and is also the director of New York University’s Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy. He has founded a company, Mesquita & Roundell, that specializes in making political and foreign-policy forecasts using an unpublished and proprietary computer model based on game theory and rational choice theory.
Forecasted the second Intifada and the death of the Mideast peace procedure, two several years earlier than it occurred.
Defied Russia specialists by predicting who would succeed Brezhnev The model identified Andropov, who nobody at the time even considered a possibility, he says.
Predicted that Daniel Ortega and the Sandanistas would be voted out of office in Nicaragua, two decades prior to it occurred.
Four months just before Tiananmen Square, said China’s hardliners would crack down harshly on dissidents.
Predicted France’s hair’s-breadth passage of the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty.
Predicted the precise implementation of the 1998 Beneficial Friday Agreement between Britain and the IRA.
Predicted China’s reclaiming of Hong Kong and the precise manner the handover would take place, 12 a long time earlier than it occurred.
It means that Iran won’t make a nuclear bomb. By early 2010, according to the forecast, Iran will be at the brink of developing one, but then it will stop and go no further. If this computer model is right, all the dire portents we’ve seen in recent months — the brutal crackdown on protesters, the dubious confessions, Khamenei’s accusations of American subterfuge — are masking a tectonic shift. The moderates are winning, even if we cannot see that yet.
Some other Middle East countries won’t see riots in the streets or experience governments under siege, says Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who has a track record of accurate predictions. And Iran is unlikely to go nuclear, he tells Newsmax.TV.”
Originally posted by deadeyedick
I wonder if he has any u.s. government contracts.