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idea to model ufo sightings

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posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 05:37 PM
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It seems to me that if UFOs are actual objects in the sky then the UFO reports should show a different statistical pattern than if they are psychological phenomena.

For example, a fake UFO could be created and flown over various types of rural and urban areas to test how many UFO reports result and measure variables such as time of day, population density, etc. This would be a way to create an accurate model of how likely a person is to be looking in the sky in the right geographical location and diligent enough to actually report the sighting. Then the actual UFO database could be compared against this model versus a psychological model.

I'm curious if any group has tried something like this. (Sorry if this is a dumb question.)

For example, at one point the Russian armed forces was ordered to watch for UFOs. In that case we might know the location of every observer. The probability of multiple observers seeing a UFO should be higher if the observers are closer together or visibility is higher. But if UFO sightings were psychological that would not be the case.
edit on 20-1-2012 by cloudyday because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 05:54 PM
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Interesting idea but it would take ALOT of testing just to get accurate variables. And then it might not even be accurate. Doubt anyone would do it. It's not too hard to believe people see things, government(Happens For Sure), or not from this planet. I don't think it matters a whole lot.



posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 06:04 PM
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Originally posted by EmperorXyn
Interesting idea but it would take ALOT of testing just to get accurate variables. And then it might not even be accurate. Doubt anyone would do it. It's not too hard to believe people see things, government(Happens For Sure), or not from this planet. I don't think it matters a whole lot.


I guess you are probably right. I saw a UFO and reported it to MUFON several years ago, because I assumed others would see and report it also. Nobody else saw it. That was very disappointing, and got me thinking about this. My sighting was exactly like a UFO photo I had been particularly fascinated by before the sighting, and it made me wonder if I saw nothing or if I imposed my idea of a UFO on something else. Ingo Swan's book mentioned that the mind puts unknowns into "reality bins".



posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 06:35 PM
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Been there done that

80 UFO Models [artwork]: Check This Out!
www.abovetopsecret.com...




posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 06:52 PM
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reply to post by zorgon
 


Hey, the one I saw's not on there!



posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 07:52 PM
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Originally posted by zorgon
Been there done that

80 UFO Models [artwork]: Check This Out!
www.abovetopsecret.com...



I wonder how many of those are actually the same style of UFO perceived differently. The UFO I saw could match about 4 of them in the chart.

Wouldn't it be interesting to make fake UFOs of various styles and fly them over areas to see what shapes are actually reported?



posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 08:30 PM
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The main problem would be that there is nobody who is going to pay for this, and nobody with the ability to carry out such a task is going to do it without getting paid. I think the information already available on this phenomenon indicates that it cannot be dismissed in its totality as a psychological abberation.



posted on Jan, 20 2012 @ 08:45 PM
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Originally posted by Orkojoker
I think the information already available on this phenomenon indicates that it cannot be dismissed in its totality as a psychological abberation.


Whats interesting is althought I agree, 5 years ago would you say the same? Wow have times changed, and ideas, and something though to be fable may be coming a reality slowly, but surely.



posted on Jan, 21 2012 @ 04:31 AM
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Originally posted by EmperorXyn

Originally posted by Orkojoker
I think the information already available on this phenomenon indicates that it cannot be dismissed in its totality as a psychological abberation.


Whats interesting is althought I agree, 5 years ago would you say the same? Wow have times changed, and ideas, and something though to be fable may be coming a reality slowly, but surely.


My ideas on UFOs have actually gone the other direction - towards thinking that an normal honest observer is much more likely to imagine things than we realize - at least that is what I think about myself now.



posted on Jan, 21 2012 @ 12:54 PM
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Originally posted by EmperorXyn

Originally posted by Orkojoker
I think the information already available on this phenomenon indicates that it cannot be dismissed in its totality as a psychological abberation.


Whats interesting is althought I agree, 5 years ago would you say the same? Wow have times changed, and ideas, and something though to be fable may be coming a reality slowly, but surely.


The UFO evidence has been basically solid since the 1960's, if not the 1950's. The late '70s and early '80s were significant in that many important government documents were released under the Freedom of Information Act. I can think of very little that has occurred in the past five years that has added significantly to the case for UFO reality. I suppose more of the general population has easier access to the facts what with the internet and all, but there is also a lot of garbage online obscuring those facts. The best way to get at what is worth getting at regarding this phenomenon is to turn off your computer and seek out the few books on the subject that are written by people who know what they are talking about. The large majority of those books were written during the 20th Century
.
edit on 21-1-2012 by Orkojoker because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 21 2012 @ 03:06 PM
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reply to post by zorgon
 


I think the OP is referring to a statistical spatial model, not a physical (or digital facsimile) model.

His post is asking about MAPPING sightings and then creating a geographical model of the aggregate sightings.


...to create an accurate model ... looking in the sky in the right geographical location...


Something like this (among many others already available, OP):

Google UFO Map

Other sources (pretty much using the same modeling algorithms):.

UFO Maps.com

UFO Maps blog

Slate UFO Map version

This one is good because it includes a descriptive table about the sightings:

UFO Stalker Maps&Data

Of course, if you really wanted the kind of model my good friend Zorgon is referring to, you can have one of your own. Get it here:

UFO Model on eBay



Or, the newer Roswell version:

UFO Rosewell Model on eBay



Many more "models" likes this are in the marketplace.

Again - IMHO - I don't think these are the kind of "models" he was referring to, but rather the kind TPTB are interested in, like this:




posted on Jan, 21 2012 @ 04:05 PM
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reply to post by Outrageo
 


Thanks, those are interesting web sites. I was hoping there might be an equation that models the probability of someone seeing a UFO given that the UFO is there. There would be variables like the population density, time of day, day of week, visibility, season, etc. Then there should be an expected number of UFO reports for any UFO based on these variables and someone could compare that to the actual reports to see if the UFO is real or imaginary.

I know it is a dumb idea. It seems that most people don't report UFOs and even when they do report them they don't remember the day or time.



posted on Jan, 21 2012 @ 04:40 PM
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reply to post by cloudyday
 


Take a closer look at the UFO Stalker site. Scroll to the lower half of the page. The map is correlated to specific, detailed reports pulled from MUFON. If you click the record in the table or the map, it'll take you to a more detailed accounting.

Good luck - and keep looking up!



posted on Jan, 21 2012 @ 05:51 PM
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reply to post by Outrageo
 


Thanks, some of them are interesting reading.



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