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A barrage of experiments seems to show that we can predict the future – but they may tell us more about the scientific method
FEW sounds quicken the pulse like the clatter of the roulette ball as it drops. Fortunes can be won or lost as it settles into its numbered slot. Find a way to predict where it will come to rest, and you would soon become the envy of every other gambler and the worst nightmare of every casino.
Michael Franklin thinks he might be able to make that claim. Over thousands of trials, he seems to have found a way to predict, with an accuracy slightly better than chance, whether the ball will fall to red or black. You'll find no divining rods or crystal balls about Franklin's person. Nor does he operate from a murky tent swathed in lace and clouded with the fumes of burning incense; he works in a lab at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Franklin is one of a small group of psychologists who are investigating precognition - the ability to foretell the future. Astonishingly, some of the groups, including Franklin's, are returning positive results. "I still want to see that I can actually win money with this," says Franklin, who rates his confidence in the data so far at about 7.5 out of 10. "As a scientist, I need to be agnostic."
If precognition does turn out to be real, it will shake the foundations of science and philosophy. Few researchers will be putting money on this conclusion, though; most expect that the puzzling results will begin to evaporate as others attempt to repeat the experiments. Even so, that could change science as we know it. Franklin and his colleagues are all using standard research methods that normally go unquestioned. If those methods can lead respected scientists to such startling errors, how many other studies might be similarly flawed?
Find a way to predict where it will come to rest, and you would soon become the envy of every other gambler and the worst nightmare of every casino.
Imagine if you will, that Science not only proves that ESP is an actual ability, but can also test it and show proof that anyone can do it.
Michael Franklin is an assistant project scientist working with Jonathan Schooler. Michael completed his doctorate training in cognitive psychology in 2008 at the University of Michigan under the supervision of Dr. John Jonides. His main research interests include order information in memory, number cognition, transfer/training effects and executive functioning, semnatic priming, consciousness, and dreams.
However one kid kept flipping the nickel and the dang thing would end up standing on it's side.
I saw the kid do it and so did the teacher.
Taught me a valuable lesson in life.
Sometimes the things you can expect to happen don't.
I guess my take-away from your post is that you are not impressed by the researchers credentials and you didn't really find the article of interest.
I stated "actual ability" on the notion that ESP is a speculative ability and has not been conventionally proven per se. I didn't find the article Earth shattering either but I did find portions of it interesting and felt it was worthy of discussion.
To the rest, I say a minimal increase of chance guessing, is no reason to go out and buy a crystal ball.
6 out of 10 accuracy would be all that's needed to bankrupt all the casinos in Las Vegas. So 7.5 out of 10 is astonishing. If you didn't see the movie "21" you may want to watch it, it was about card-counting MIT students exploiting a very small edge and raking in lots of money in Vegas, until they were caught and banned.
Originally posted by UberL33t
reply to post by tgidkp
Yes I too would be very interested in the findings. The preliminary 7.5 out of 10 accuracy isn't very promising in regards to the subject and leaves a great deal of room for happenstance.
Originally posted by grey580
reply to post by intrptr
When I was younger I would pick up to phone to call a friend.
Only to find that friend already on the line.
He would call and I would pick up the phone before it began to ring.
imo we aren't developed enough as a species to be privy to any "skill" or "ability" of this nature at this point anyway.
Maybe these hints of ability are just the tip of the iceberg as it were. Under each persons persona there is an untapped realm.