posted on Jan, 13 2012 @ 03:23 PM
There are a huge pile of RAH RAH war lovers here that seem to think the job of defeating Iran will be a cakewalk in the straits....(of hormuz)
This is not a really tenable position, and the reasons are many fold....
1)The mean depth of this waterway is approx-25-40 meters....
This means max depth would be 3x 40 =120 feet......
1a)-The height of the capital ships travelling the six mile wide international travel lanes while sitting on the bottom, would in many cases exceed
that of the water.....
2)There have been, and will be further "exercises" held by the Irani military within the confines of the straits......
These exercises are a perfect cover for mine laying, and placing stay behind weapons like self targetting torpedoes or other passive (thus difficult
to sweep or detect) weaponry.
2a) The Iranian military have little in the way of the heavey sea power that will be arrayed against them should they close these straits, however
reopening them would take massive amounts of air, and sea power.
The Iranians have been concentrating their efforts into asymetrrical warfare since the very start of this situation.
The technology level of Iran is well up to the standard it takes to build a variety of surprise weapons specially designed to be used for the one
purpose of denying the use of the straits to the world at large.
3)Sunburn anti ship missiles as well as their own versions of same, and several different meaans of delivery are at their disposal, havinfg four
hundred miles of coastline bordering the straits, as well as much more covering the inside waters all the way to the Shat el Arab.
It would be foolish at best to take a fleet of ships and try to force passage into the gulf.
4)The iranis have no need to sink the carrier fleet to block the shallow straits completely to traffic....
Simply awaiting the opportunity to sink several huge tankers would suffice to completely ruin the passage to other capital ships....
Unless they were to swing into national waters to by pass the wrecks...bringing them in range of shore batteries and smaller missiles..
Airpower similar to the world war two air power that kept the straits of dover clear for D day would be required to destroy the capacity for Iran to
launch much of its armament that is surface mounted.
But these people have had virtually years, and unlimited resources to emplace underground launchers and harden them to attack from the air.....
There are only so many J dams available to destroy the threats....
5)The Us would need to move many more squadrons of land based aircraft into position to completely dominate the battlefield....
This is a prerequisite for any type of action.
This is the signal that we should be watching for, all else is posturing.
There will be consequences of fighting Iran over the straits, and if they dont overwhelm Iran at the outset, they may be graver than planned.
I call your attention to the last navy war games (10 yrs ago)in which the Iranis won with a massive missile salvo first shot.....I dont say the navy
learned nothing from this event, but im not sure they are capable of dealing with mass salvoes of sunburn missiles, as well as speedboats and air
strikes with standoff missiles like expcette or other Irani developed weapons.
Though the hardware they have shown is sometimes seemingly layghable, i am not sure we have seen their best stuff, and wont till the shtf.
I believe that the US would stomp Iran, but not without some greater forces than three carriers and their attendant vessels.
Cruise missiles notwithjstanding.
I am sure the war lovers will be along to kick my a$$ now but im just sayin....we shouldnt be getting too cocky.
These guys fought Iraq for eight years without slacking off......