An Amazing Excursion into the Failings of Seismology and Hazard Maps, page 1

An Amazing Excursion into the Failings of Seismology and Hazard Maps, page

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Topic started on 11-1-2012 @ 09:20 PM by TrueAmerican

Ok, first off the title of this video is way wrong.

On youtube it is called:
Seth Stein - 10/03/2011 - Workshop on Mathematics in the Geosciences

YouTube Link

But the video has way more to do with the failings of seismology in general than it does with mathematics.

A bit on Seth Stein:

Seth Stein is Deering Professor of Geological Sciences at Northwestern. He graduated from MIT in 1975 (B.S) and Caltech (Ph.D) in 1978. His research interests are in plate tectonics, earthquake seismology, earthquake hazards, and space geodesy. He has been awarded the James B. Macelwane Medal of the American Geophysical Union, the George Woollard Award of the Geological Society of America, and the Stephan Mueller Medal of the European Geosciences Union, elected a foreign member of the Academy of Europe, a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and Geological Society of America, and named to the Institute for Scientific Information Highly Cited Researchers list.

He was one of the organizers of EarthScope, a national initiative to dramatically advance our knowledge of the structure and evolution of North America, served as Scientific Director of the UNAVCO consortium of universities using GPS for earth science, and been Visiting Senior Scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. He is the author of "Disaster Deferred," a general audience book about earthquakes in the central U.S., a coauthor of a widely used seismology textbook, has edited four other books, and was editor of the Journal of
Geophysical Research. He started Northwestern's Environmental Science program, and authored more than 150 scientific publications. He is active in the geophysical community's public education programs, works extensively with news media and museums, and completed a national tour as an Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology/Seismological Society of America Distinguished Lecturer, speaking on "Giant earthquakes: why, where, when, and what we can do."

www.earth.northwestern.edu...

Clearly he has the credentials to be making the points he does. And the points will be of interest to the serious quaketards we have here (it's ok if you're a quaketard, other quaketards <3 you!). But don't let that statement scare away the average public, because this video presentation is very understandable to all.

I find it curious that someone with such credentials so severely rips into the failings of seismology, and he does it with actual hazard maps of before and after large quake events. Take the recent mega quake in Japan, for example. The hazard map before the quake shows all the risk in the southern part of the Japan east coast. The place this quake happened wasn't even noted on the map!

But it is noted now, and you can bet on that. He even shows statements from the USGS how earthquake predicting was 5 years out.

Overall though, he has a great sense of humor and delivers these points to occasional laughter from the crowd.

Overall, the audio cuts out a bit (sounds like he's on Ventrilo), but is 97% understandable. Skype works better, Seth!

Our resident quake expert PuterMan has been doing some very interesting work lately with stress buildup graphs, which you might be able to find in the Quake Watch 2012 thread, before it gets so massive it's impossible to find anything!

I am hoping that in the long term, his graphs might be integrated into future earthquake forecasting capabilities.

And dare I mention my own attempt of contacting the forces that be in the cosmos, which gave me the information that Japan would be the site of the next 8+ mag quake, a year before it happened. Wouldn't it be great if there indeed WAS an Akashic Record of all things, because then we would need to merely peer into the future and see where the next big one is. One of these days I am probably going to do another formal session, and see what comes up! If I do this twice in a row, then I guess I am just really lucky, right?

edit on Wed Jan 11th 2012 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

reply posted on 11-1-2012 @ 10:55 PM by HattoriHanzou

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Interesting stuff. Thanks OP.

reply posted on 12-1-2012 @ 03:07 AM by zenius

What a great title for a thread! I haven't watched the vid yet, but will be keeping an eye on this. I think most of the Quake Watch-ers know there are plenty of failings and flaws in the area of tectonics and seismic science. Geophysics is a complex science with much yet to be understood. Luckily on ATS, we have some excellent minds and researchers who often share interesting and imaginative ideas.

Thanks for the find!

Ok, had a flick through. The sound was pretty crappy, but I'm sensitive to tinniness. It was all common sense really, but some good points were made, such as a comparison with the IPCC model variations. An output/forecast/prediction is only as good as the input information and the mathematics running it. Therefore variations can be extreme and standard deviations can also be ridiculous. When assumptions and interpretations are made it is apparent that of course such things as earthquake hazard maps, will fail. For example, when I created a liquefaction map for Christchurch after the most recent big one, I made the assumption that the soil maps were accurate, that sandy loamy soils were the only soils prone to liquefaction and that stabilisation work, earthquake size or distance from the city were not factors in the equation. Naturally the map created was indicative only.

Unless some unseen force causes quakes, which is one day discovered, I doubt they will ever be successfully predicted. There are too many unknowns.

edit on 12-1-2012 by zenius because: add

reply posted on 12-1-2012 @ 11:47 AM by Thought Provoker

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
And dare I mention my own attempt of contacting the forces that be in the cosmos, which gave me the information that Japan would be the site of the next 8+ mag quake, a year before it happened. Wouldn't it be great if there indeed WAS an Akashic Record of all things, because then we would need to merely peer into the future and see where the next big one is.

A very impressive prediction. But don't forget to ask for the year next time.

I've never considered myself psychic in any way, aside from an apparently natural bit of Reiki ability, but I do keep having quake dreams. I've always chalked them up to just being a seismogeek (the Yellowstone monitoring site on isthisthingon.org wouldn't exist if I wasn't, and is evidence of my obsession with keeping an eye on tectonics) or to the fact that the first dream happened some time after the 3/11/11 quake, but now...

The dreams are always roughly the same, and the ones I remember, at least, always seem to happen just before I wake up, like maybe something wants me to remember them. (I don't remember very many dreams, never had a lucid one or an OBE or anything of the sort, not for lack of trying. I've never even managed to meditate successfully; stupid brain won't shut up.) It's always me, looking at our old friend, the USGS world quake chart page. I see that page in the dream, but with HUGE amounts of red text on it. In the first one I had, every quake was at least an 8.0 magnitude, most were in the 9's, there were even a couple higher than 10, and the only locations I managed to make out were "Mexico City" and "Guerrero, Mexico" (actually a State just south of Mexico City; the Acapulco area). Just an unbelievable amount of seismic energy release. There's no way Mexico City, sitting as it does on what amounts to loose lake-bottom mud, with its buildings already tilting to one side, would still be there after even one 10.0 quake, let alone what I saw, which would easily be the worst natural disaster in human history. It'd literally kill millions almost instantly; only Japan falling into the ocean would be worse (which Edgar Cayce said would happen). There are 127 million people standing on it.

But it doesn't make sense, this Mexico dream. I've never come to the conclusion that such enormous quakes were likely in that location from scientific observation. Sure, it's just north of a large fault (the joint between the Caribbean and North American plates), but a lot of places are. If I had to scientifically guess where the next Big One is going to be, I would say "nearly all of America's East Coast." That, or "Japan again" (talk about someplace that needs to be evacuated!) So shouldn't the dream have reflected that preconception? Where'd I get Guerrero from? That's why I'm even considering giving it credence: it doesn't sound like something my subconscious would've come up with.

Now, if it had been only one dream, I'd just ignore it. Like I said, I'm no prophet. But... In your case, you instigated the prophecy by asking for it. In mine, I didn't; it "just came to me," and more than once. In your sphere of experience, does the Akashic Record ever reach out and touch someone who isn't seeking info from it? If so, southern Mexico could be a bad place to be. You said you might do a more-formal reading some day; if you do, and it tells you Mexico, well... I'm not sure I could help, or that people would believe a warning like that, but I'd want to warn them. I imagine it'd feel a bit like being Cassandra, who was given the gift of absolutely-accurate prognostication by Apollo (because she was so beautiful), who then cursed her (because she didn't want him) so that nobody would ever believe her prophecy even though it was all true. "Leave Mexico City now!!" isn't something that anyone would listen to, any more than they'd have listened to someone saying "Leave Fukushima Prefecture now!!" on March 10th, 2011. Yet, they do listen to scientists, who apparently can't predict anything seismic with accuracy; how silly is that? (There! Managed to make this post slightly on-topic.

) If the USGS told everyone to leave Mexico City today, the place would be cleared out by Monday.

But I could still be completely wrong. Maybe you can help clear that up. Please try your formal reading; see if Mexico comes up. If so, a date would be handy... my dream sadly didn't include dates. Stupid lousy dreams...

reply posted on 12-1-2012 @ 12:14 PM by pryingopen3rdeye

reply to post by TrueAmerican

here is a geologist from New Mexico who claims he knows of a very successful way to predict earthquakes, via a particular type of radiation which is emitted from plates stress points nearing release

www.youtube.com...