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Beware attacking Iran is not the best idea

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posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:42 PM
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I for one could care less what Iran does and personally I am sick and tired of the escalating tensions and pointless sabre rattling going on on both sides. However that being said i think we need to take a good hard look at some statistics and threats that have been made that i believe Iran can pull off. I do think we (the US) can win in Iran but it will be a tougher war then these politicians think it will be. First off i do believe they will (i say will because lets face it its coming) be one of the most dangerous enemies we have ever fought and for a few reasons...

www.globalfirepower.com...

1) They have a sizable army- 540k active duty troops now you may laugh at that number but they also have an estimated 40 million men eligible to serve at a moments notice and trust me in defense of the homeland they will serve.

2) They are on defense... this is one of the best scenarios for an army being attacked defense on your home turf drives your will to succeed harder than if you were 7k miles from home... they know the land better than the attacking army, sure we have satellites and topo maps showing natural features but a man who knows the land can disappear and reappear easier than one who does not, it worked well for the Viet Cong

3) Iran has one of the largest cache of missiles in the entire middle east.... sure we have anti-missile missiles and plenty of them but even one getting through can be detrimental

4) They have guns and plenty of them... their defense budget is 9 billion dollars now that is laughable considering ours is 692 billion but think of it this way, they have a very small air-force and a very small navy so their 9 billion does not go into 50 million dollar planes or 500 million dollar aircraft carriers they spend most of it on guns ammunition, grenades, and missiles (and unlike our government i don't believe they pay 100k dollars for a hammer like we do) meaning they are extremely well prepared for a ground invasion

5) Their allies.... Russia and China both warned us to stay away from Iran, the Chinese put it blatantly that if we attack Iran they will start WW3. War involving these two country's alone will stretch the US/Nato forces so thin that we would not be able to fight well with 3 fronts and 3 different enemy's. We will have a hard enough time fighting the 40 million troops Iran will call up
www.eutimes.net...

6) The Nuclear option.... i have no doubts Russia and China will send Iran (if they have not already) ready to fire nukes if we invade...and we all know the first nuke to get launched will end life on this planet because the chain reaction it will cause everyone will be launching nukes

7) The covert invasion that's already taken place.... we will use the UK for this example currently there are 1.6 million Muslims living in the UK ( news.bbc.co.uk... ) and currently 40 percent want to see sharia law put into place that's 640k people say 10 percent are extremist that's an army of 64k troops already in your country and your troops are fighting in Iran sure that is not a real big army but its enough to destabilize an entire country with random bomb attacks and mass shootings. France is even worse off with 5-6 million Muslims living in its borders. The US has 2.5 million Muslims in our borders. Now don't call me a racist or ignorant i know that not all Muslim's back Iran nor do i believe every Muslim will start setting off bombs if we attack Iran but if even 10 percent are extremist then a lot of countries are going to have large issues right on their own front doors...and Iran has threatened us stating that if we attack the war will be brought to our shores and i am positive this is exactly what they meant.

These are the reasons i deem a war with Iran to be a bad idea, would we win I think so... would we win if Russia and China joined in absolutely, not we as a human race will lose if this is the case. Nuclear strikes,mass civilian casualties on both sides, and the complete destruction of cities and loss of inhabitable land due to radiation will be the result if we decide to march into Iran.

I do not support Iran nor do i support Iran getting nuclear bombs and for those who say they are not trying to make a bomb look at it this way, a civilian nuclear power plant requires .8 - 8.0 percent enriched uranium. It came out today that Iran has an enrichment facility manufacturing uranium at 20% enrichment, nuclear weapons needs it enriched to 90% so they are still a ways off but they have surpassed their needs for it to be used in its power plant. And for the record i do not think ANY country needs to have atomic bombs.




posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:49 PM
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Originally posted by Immune


I do not support Iran nor do i support Iran getting nuclear bombs and for those who say they are not trying to make a bomb look at it this way, a civilian nuclear power plant requires .8 - 8.0 percent enriched uranium. It came out today that Iran has an enrichment facility manufacturing uranium at 20% enrichment, nuclear weapons needs it enriched to 90% so they are still a ways off but they have surpassed their needs for it to be used in its power plant. And for the record i do not think ANY country needs to have atomic bombs.









With that said,how do you stop a country hell bent on making the very BOMBS,you believe they dont need?

Sanctions?

Dont work.

Talk?

Doesnt either.

Inspections?

If Iran lets inspectors into their top secret underground bases.

Sorry,but The WORLD will have to deal with Iran,and its hidden intentions,soon enough.




edit on 10-1-2012 by sonnny1 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:50 PM
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Russia and China will NOT risk starting a war with the US. Iraq also had a massive military before the invasion, look how that turned out. China does not have the ability to transport Troops to the US mainland. All we would have to do is knock them out of the war for a few years by bombing their industrial capacity. Meanwhile we could focus almost entirely on Russia. In terms of conventional military comparisons Russia would get wiped by the US and Nato. If anyone uses nukes were all f*cked, no stopping that.
edit on 10-1-2012 by Fitch303 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:51 PM
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I agree, Iran really is just a front. Its not war with Iran I would be concerned about, but more the retaliation we would see from Russia and China. Both countries have made it clear that they do not approve sanctions on Iran, I doubt they would let active combat slide.

However, I do not think the United States are going to invade. Israel sure has been pushing for backed invasion but The States has continualy said no.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:52 PM
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Look. Im against an attack on any country, however your theories are WAY off base. For one, the US has gotten so good at this war thing, they have other people(al queda, islamic rebels, syrian rebels....)fighting their wars for them. Second, if and thats a huge if, iran EVER did try and get brave, troop count will not matter. The US has yet do drop an atomic weapon in the past 60 years, so the minute they do, there will be war the likes NONE of us have ever imagined. Like I said, at that time troop count will not matter in the least bit.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:55 PM
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I always have a little laugh when I hear people talking about another country arming itself with nukes.

If it's okay for the Yanks to have them, why shouldn't other countries be allowed to have a nuclear program?

Personally I hope the Americans are dumb enough to invade Iran.....Provided that I'm allowed to nominate them for a Darwin Award.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:57 PM
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reply to post by Fitch303
 


www.eutimes.net...

China has threatened WW3 with anyone who attacks Iran exact words
Russia has not..yet they are to busy threatening us over the missile shield we don't really need or want



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:59 PM
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At the moment, Iran has no plans to attack anyone. Their issues are not of military importance, they are suffering an oil crisis right now, and no one is in place to aid them, with the weather disturbance looming for the U.S and Europe.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:02 PM
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reply to post by Immune
 
Nice thread.
Though you missed one aspect.

We'll never attack Iran. Our foreign policy is to play second fiddle and leave the blame/responsibility to others.

Now will we encourage Israel to attack?

You betcha!

You can argue the point as to whether it's in Israels best interest or not, but the fact of the matter is that Iran hates Israel and wants it gone.

Israel is not going to sit and wait for that to happen.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:04 PM
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reply to post by Fitch303
 


Iraq had no military before the invasion.Russia will initiate a world war if Syria is invaded by NATO.



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 11:39 AM
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People really need to stop comparing Iran to Iraq, it's a completely different ballpark.



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 11:46 AM
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Israel made their choice a long time ago
they would sacrifice everyone on earth including themself
before letting Iran living in this modern world with modern tech

Who has been pushing for a war since 2003 on Iran .. Israel with the US help
and they surely dont care if it trigger a ww3
Iran is showing enormous restraint not to retaliate
i think Russia and china told them .. if you start this war .. we will not back you up
but if the US start a war with Israel France and UK we will back you up with our full armies

Imagine Russia and China allying themself with Syria and Iran and possibly NK
no armies will be able to match the number of soldiers



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 11:48 AM
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Iran's population is diminishing... you know all that exploitation of Women is causing them to leave

www.payvand.com...

yeah they will be empty soon enough.



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 12:09 PM
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Originally posted by Fitch303
Russia and China will NOT risk starting a war with the US. Iraq also had a massive military before the invasion, look how that turned out. China does not have the ability to transport Troops to the US mainland. All we would have to do is knock them out of the war for a few years by bombing their industrial capacity. Meanwhile we could focus almost entirely on Russia. In terms of conventional military comparisons Russia would get wiped by the US and Nato. If anyone uses nukes were all f*cked, no stopping that.
edit on 10-1-2012 by Fitch303 because: (no reason given)


1. Iraq with all its might, backed by the West and Arabs began a surprise invasion of Iran in 1980, at which point Iran was still recovering from its massive 1979 uprising, yet Iran stopped Iraq in its tracks and began to push back before being forced to accept white peace.

2. Iran, unlike Iraq is located within Russia and Chinas sphere of influence

3. Iran unlike Iraq has a massive, aware, strong population of over 70million. Iraq has 30 million, most of which were living in oppression, poverty and fear.

4. Iran is large and mountainous, add that to the big population and you have a country which is more than capable of initiating an offensive war, they can do it.

5. Iran unlike Iraq has real Field marshals and Generals with military expertise on Air, Land, and Naval battles and strategies. As well as tactical and logistical issues. Saddam promoted his own family to lead the army, which was devastating as they lacked any knowledge; yet they made the same mistake in the gulf war and 2003.
6. Iran is much more advanced than Iraq in many fields, and if Iran was Iraq then Israel would have launched a pre-emptive strike a long time ago.

7. Why would China invade mainland US? I doubt this, China is only looking to dominate Asia, they do not seek world domination. China is eyeing Asia and its biggest bounty is Australia.

8. Russia is known for two things, 1. they sell you old weapons and 2. they abandon you in the last minute. Russia will not fight for Iran, Russia has its own agenda, Russia wants to expand its influence in Europe. NATO is an obstacle. Now if Iran somehow gains the upper hand in a miraculous series of events causing economic collapse and knocking the USA out of it, then expect Russia to jump in. Until then NATO and Russia will agree that there will be no war on European soil and the middle east becomes their battleground.

9. Iran may be going down, but it will drag the whole world down with it!



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 04:53 PM
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Send in stealth bombers to destroy missile systems and air fields. When their airforce is wiped out, concentrate on the tanks, vehicles and ofcourse their resources, ammunition facilities bla bla bla.

Send in the troops to take control of towns, cities and villages. Capture or kill their leader (forgot his name) the. Done.

Oh forgot, destroy their navy.



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 05:45 PM
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reply to post by Immune
 


Beware your 40 million men number is a joke....

Iran has 73,973,630 people - 2010 figures...

The fact that you think 40 million of them are men capable of fighting, and that Iran could send 40 million of them fighting, and can support 40 million of them fighting...

Lets use Wikipedia
Demographics_of_Iran

Age structure 0-14 years: 21.7% (male 7,394,841/female 7,022,076)
15-64 years: 72.9% (male 24,501,544/female 23,914,172)
65 years and over: 5.4% (male 1,725,828/female 1,870,823)
(2010 est.) [edit]Median age total: 26.4 years
male: 26.2 years
female: 26.7 years (2008 est.)


now lets use the CIA world fact book
CIA World Fact Book


Manpower available for military service:
males age 16-49: 23,619,215
females age 16-49: 22,628,341 (2010 est.)
Manpower fit for military service:
males age 16-49: 20,149,222
females age 16-49: 19,417,275 (2010 est.)
Manpower reaching militarily significant age annually:
male: 715,111
female: 677,372 (2010 est.)


I just halved your number, still 25 million is not bad...
edit on 11-1-2012 by DaRAGE because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 07:09 PM
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Originally posted by AllUrChips
Look. Im against an attack on any country, however your theories are WAY off base. For one, the US has gotten so good at this war thing, they have other people(al queda, islamic rebels, syrian rebels....)fighting their wars for them. ...
.



the #1 thing is 50%... and the other 50% is the USA Strategy

see... the USA is busy building-up the war prowess and near Nuclear capability of Iran...
making them into a Regional Power instead of just a lowly 'rogue state' that carries little status.

If all the build-up propaganda were to be exposed as crud...(like the Iraqi WMD monster state was deemed to be)
then all the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia would not be allowing US Troops, bases, weapons depots and the installation on numberous Missile batteries and air-defense systems to be stationed on their land for infinity..

see... the USA is playing these independent nations, aligned somewhat with the developed 'western' nations...
playing them as nations with autonomy as a conquered government, which 'must' obey the dictates of Obama or the next executive branch President in 2012


the USA geo-political scheme is to allow Iran to progress into a Atomic age, being a Regional Power, but always under the thumb of the sole-super-power... that is the system of 'balance' there in the middle east

Syria even Lebanon will get knocked off before there is any real conflict with Iran.


at least thats my point of view... the naked strategy revealed



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 08:46 PM
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reply to post by DaRAGE
 


www.globalfirepower.com...

It seems our numbers from our respective sources differs significantly but still look at it this way
the US has about 2 million troops active and/or in reserves even if Iran called up 5 million of its eligible men we will be out numbered by 3 million the only way to even the troop numbers would be to initiate a draft for an extremely unpopular war..... I understand numbers are not everything but with the troops numbers they have and the amount of missiles they currently have we are going to be in for one heck of a nasty long drawn out war with large amounts of death on both sides



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 09:26 PM
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reply to post by Immune
 


What are they going to do? Swim their way to American shores? Their homeland called Iran will be known as Bomb Crater. Even 70 million people armed with AK's does not equal a war won. Being able to take those people over to the enemies shores does = war won. All they are in Iran are targets on the ground. Who says a large force is going to invade Iran. That'd be silly. More like they will be bombed with thousands of predator drone strikes..



posted on Jan, 11 2012 @ 09:33 PM
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reply to post by sonnny1
 


" With that said,how do you stop a country hell bent on making the very BOMBS,you believe they dont need? "


Are you a Member of the Iranian Goverment ? If not , what Facts back up your Claim they are " hell bent " on making Bombs (Plural) ? Sounds to me you are a Victim of the Very Propaganda you have so Frequently Spoken Out Against from time to time here on ATS sir ! ...........




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