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Ron Paul won't contest Florida?

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posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:57 AM
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I'm a Ron Paul supporter, and a Floridian, and I've been stumping for him down here for at least 6 months now. Herman Cain won the Straw Poll here, we have one of the most active Tea Parties in the Country, and the state is completely up for grabs. Florida has a ton of delegates, the Republican National Convention will be held here, etc., etc., etc.

What the hell is Paul thinking to completely bypass us?



Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton said Sunday that the Texas congressman will focus his efforts on states with February caucuses after South Carolina.

He specifically cited Louisiana, Nevada and Maine as places where they are bulking up their operations.

“We’re focusing there to win those caucuses,” Benton said in the spin room after Sunday’s debate.

Benton guessed it would cost about $9 million to run a comprehensive program in the Sunshine State. He said they will not run television ads there, send mailers or do phone banking.

Because the state moved up its primary in violation of Republican National Committee rules, Florida lost half its delegates.

“It’s such an expensive state, and with their delegates cut in half, the math just doesn’t make any sense,” he added. “We’re a delegate-focused campaign. We’re focused on winning the 1,150 delegates to secure the nomination. And the amount of resources and time it would take to compete for those 50 delegates just didn’t make sense to us.”

Politico

OK, so we lost half of our delegates, but this is where the real election, for President, will be won or lost. This is where all the hype and energy surrounding the RNC will be. This is where 750,000 Jews live, so he can put to bed the anti-Israel bunk.

Paul needs Florida. Without Florida he won't get the nomination, guaranteed.

He will still be on the ballot here, so he may still have a decent finish, but if other candidates swarm the state, then Paul is dead in the water.

What a tactical mistake this is. Not only for his campaign, but also to give his many supporters here a punch in the gut.


I'm seriously disappointed and pissed off, and I don't even know what I will do with my support now. I can't support any other GOP candidate, nor Obama. Will this just take the wind out of the voter energy here? Will people (like me) decide to just not turn out for the primary?

Speechless.

ETA:
To elaborate a little more from my follow up posts below. This is a win for Perry, Newt, and Santorum, which means this is also a win for Romney. Romney benefits from a large fractured field of candidates. Perry was ready to drop out after Iowa, but now he can spend that big bankroll in Florida and resurrect his campaign with a decent finish here, which means he will still be in the race all the way up to Super Tuesday.

Paul had a chance to get momentum from 4 straight strong finishes in January, and narrow the field and benefit from the anti-Romney sentiment, and it looks like he is going to miss that opportunity.
edit on 10-1-2012 by getreadyalready because: (no reason given)

edit on 10-1-2012 by getreadyalready because: (no reason given)




posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 10:59 AM
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was florida not the rigged one that got Bush in? Maybe he knows he cant win and doesnt want to upset his momentum, maybee hes doesnt like the sunshine



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:02 AM
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Romney has a plan for Florida. I guess Romney truly is the professional candidate, with the professional campaign. So disappointing.

Romney’s 25% Game Plan: Divide and Conquer Florida


Can Mitt Romney, the narrow winner of the Iowa caucuses, break through the polling ceiling that has kept him at the same 25 percent support nationally as he won in Iowa, and conversely, can a Republican keep him from winning the nomination even if he can’t? And will Ron Paul’s campaign help or hurt Romney in the long run?

Throughout the primaries, Romney has enjoyed either a lead or second place in national polling – and in most states as well – for months. However, Romney’s support in these surveys has rarely bounced above a quarter of the respondents, with the notable exception of New Hampshire, where the first binding primary will take place next Tuesday. So far, Romney has been helped by a wide and active Republican field that has mostly stayed in the race, with Herman Cain and Tim Pawlenty the only notable exits in 2011. In a field of seven significant candidates, a consistent 25 percent level of support could win the nomination, although it would take longer than most Republicans would like.

Romney has also been helped by the curious boomlet phenomenon. Each of the remaining candidates has had a burst of popularity that threatened to eclipse Romney’s standing in the race. Each, however, descended almost as quickly as another boomlet candidate arose. Former Senator Rick Santorum managed to time his moment almost perfectly and lost by only eight votes on Tuesday night, a triumph of shoestring campaigning in a state known for rewarding retail politicking. That, however, leaves one of the weakest candidates in organizational and funding terms as Romney’s principal conservative opposition, and the number of conservative candidates in the race means that the opposition vote will be split in upcoming races.


Romney has had similar problems to Paul so far. His electability is in question, and his polling numbers are stagnant, and it is obvious that voters are looking to vote for anyone that isn't Romney. Therefore, keeping him on the ropes, and keeping that doubt at the top of mind is very, very important to Ron Paul's campaign.

Ignoring Florida, and letting Romney take a large victory here is a nail in the Paul campaign coffin.

I've said all along that the clear frontrunner would emerge before the end of January. I still say it, and it is not the candidate I wanted to support.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:03 AM
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Originally posted by trustnothing
was florida not the rigged one that got Bush in? Maybe he knows he cant win and doesnt want to upset his momentum, maybee hes doesnt like the sunshine


Maybe, but it feels more like he doesn't care about his supporters here. This is a morale crusher.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:04 AM
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It's all about demographics. Most of RP's support comes from the younger (



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:04 AM
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So, you feel personally offended because your hero is not stopping by your state?

May I ask, do you still support Ron Paul?

To be honest, get over it. The man is stretched to the limit, he cannot be everywhere. I hope your opinion about Florida being a necessity is wrong, as I too am a Ron Paul supporter.
edit on 10-1-2012 by emaildogs because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:04 AM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


Woah... you may want to slow down and take a breather
. Ron Paul stated in a CNN interview that he would campaign there, however he does not have a LARGE campaign planned because as you know, he gets most his funding from individual donors. Nonetheless, he WILL be in Florida. His words were..."We don't have a big campaign planned there but they'll know we're there..."

If you knew this already, forgive me, however it seems that you think he is ignoring your support there, whereas I believe his is simply trying to use his resources wisely. I agree that Florida is significant by all means.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:11 AM
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In my opinion, it is still a HUGE mistake. $9M to run a largescale campaign here would pay off in the longrun.

I hope I'm wrong, because I can't really support any other GOP candidate, and when the real election comes around, I'll likely be forced to vote 3rd Party if Paul isn't on the GOP ticket.


He specifically cited Louisiana, Nevada and Maine as places where they are bulking up their operations.


Does anyone really think this is a good strategy? Louisiana, Nevada, and Maine instead of Florida?

In my mind, I saw Paul getting strong 2nds, and 3rds all the way through January (including Florida) and setting himself up as the only real contender against Romney. He could have put Perry and Santorum to bed with a very strong finish here, but bypassing Florida allows those other candidates to get legitimate finishes and hang around longer.

Romney's own campaign strategy admits that he has a better chance the longer the field is large and spread out. Once it gets narrowed down to 2 or 3 candidates, Romney is likely to struggle.

Paul has just allowed the others to stay in the race longer, and allowed Romney to dominate for longer, and we all know that with the MSM pushing the likely winner, and people voting for a likely winner, this will all hurt Paul in the longrun.

A strong Florida finish from the other candidates will steal Paul votes in the later primaries, because people will look at the previous results, listen to the MSM, and vote for who they expect to win.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:14 AM
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Originally posted by getreadyalready
...This is where 750,000 Jews live...


That is reason enough for Ron Paul to avoid Florida. He can't and won't win that voter bloc. It would be a waste of Paul's time and resources to even attempt to take Florida. With Paul's stance on Israel & Iran, this comes as no surprise to me, and likely even less of a surprise to RP and his campaign staff.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:14 AM
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reply to post by emaildogs
 


Right, the OP's post is similar in its rant about the woman who thought Ron Paul should have met her mother at the diner in NH when he was being ambushed by the media and that crazy, boot wearing fool. I think she even said that she might have to change her vote because he didn't meet the voters. Huh?

Look, it's about demographics. Paul's campaign has said they really don't want to spend money in a state where delegates are assigned all or nothing when he honestly doesn't stand a change to win that state. They're trying to be smart and spend the resources in states where delegates are assigned proportionally.

It's great that the OP is campaigning for RP but despite how much RP raises in his money bombs, he's up against Mr. Money Bags Mitt. Yes, Mitt has the resources to play every state and is probably why the media has him pegged to take the nomination if purely from a resource perspective.

I wouldn't take it too hard OP. Support RP because you believe in his ideas not because he came to your state and shook your hand.
edit on 10-1-2012 by Freenrgy2 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:16 AM
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Originally posted by Muttley2012

Originally posted by getreadyalready
...This is where 750,000 Jews live...


That is reason enough for Ron Paul to avoid Florida. He can't and won't win that voter bloc. It would be a waste of Paul's time and resources to even attempt to take Florida. With Paul's stance on Israel & Iran, this comes as no surprise to me, and likely even less of a surprise to RP and his campaign staff.


I'm afraid that is the real reason behind the strategy, and that is a clear chink in the armor. If he is really that scared of the Jewish voters, then he has no shot at the Presidency.

I've stumped for him all along on the grounds that his stance is not anti-Israel, and it is actually in line with Netanyahu's stance. But if the campaign itself has doubts, then what am I stumping for?



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:17 AM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


I understand their strategy here. I don't think Paul has a good following in Florida to make a dent in a short amount of time. if the RP grassroots want to help RP in florida. then they need to do what the campaign cant at the moment. Gamble their resources when the jackpot has been cut in half. Its up to his supporters to make a dent in Florida.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:19 AM
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reply to post by Freenrgy2
 



I wouldn't take it too hard OP. Support RP because you believe in his ideas not because he came to your state and shook your hand.


I already shook his hand, and Mitt's, and Cain's, and Newts, and Bachmanns, etc. during the Florida Debate and Strawpoll. I'm not upset about it on a personal fan level. I'm upset about it on a strategic level.

I feel Florida is the most important primary before Super Tuesday, and I feel Florida sets the tone for every follow-up primary, and I feel Florida is the key to both the nomination and the presidency. The Florida Governor and Florida GOP also feel this is the state that will pick the next President. That is why they moved up the primary date in the first place.

Paul also has a history of handicapping his own campaigns, and I really expected more out of him this time. To me, this indicates he doesn't expect to win. If he doesn't expect to win, then he is probably correct.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:27 AM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


Well he pretty much stated that it depends how well he does today in NH because it's about funds. If he does well today, I think he'll have a larger presence in Florida.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:29 AM
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reply to post by Wookiep
 


I never expected Paul to do well in New Hampshire. Romney will likely win it hands down. Huntsman will likely do well there too, and Santorum might even ride some of his momentum there. I'll be happy if Paul gets 3rd again, but I won't be surprised if he drops to 4th. New Hampshire won't handicap his overall campaign, but Florida will!



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:36 AM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


Yeah I don't think he's expecting to win NH. 2nd would be great but since the media has been pushing for a Huntsman surge he'll prolly end up 3rd, but we'll see. I think remaining in the top 3 might be enough for him to push harder in Florida, although I can't say for sure.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:42 AM
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reply to post by ugie1028
 



I don't think Paul has a good following in Florida to make a dent in a short amount of time. if the RP grassroots want to help RP in florida. then they need to do what the campaign cant at the moment.


What worries me about the grassroots movement here in Florida, is the youthful of it. Florida does have a lot of older retirees, but it also has a lot of young college crowd. In 2008, I awoke one morning to the Ron Paul "R3VOLUTION" Posters all over the town, graphiti, etc. They had come out during the night and covered the whole town in yard signs, posters, and paint. IT really turned me off to Paul's message. It looked more like a message of anarchy.

So, if Florida is left to the young grassroots movement, it is likely to be more damaging than helpful. Those 55+ year old voters are not going to be swayed by a bunch of anarchy posters and chaotic support.

However, Paul already has those young voters, so a heavy educational media campaign with his messages clearly defined in terms the older generation would appreciate might have really put him over the top here.

Herman Cain won the straw poll, that is evidence of what Florida is looking for, so Paul had a legitimate shot to take first place here.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:44 AM
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Originally posted by getreadyalready
In my opinion, it is still a HUGE mistake. $9M to run a largescale campaign here would pay off in the longrun.



I am going to have to disagree here. $9M is loads of money for a less than 50/50 chance of getting maybe 10-15 delegates. That is not money well spent if you ask me. Newt is the one that is going to pull away with the most from Florida in my opinion. This will leave Romney with a minor if any gain. I think his campaign is right not to throw money down a hole that they are sure to get little to nothing back out of.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:46 AM
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reply to post by getreadyalready
 


I haven't seen any polling data from Florida that shows how strong or weak Paul is.
Do you have information on this?

It would be interesting to see a breakdown in demographics and who they vote for.



posted on Jan, 10 2012 @ 11:47 AM
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reply to post by SpaDe_
 


I agree on Newt. I think he will do well in Florida.

I disagree on the money going in a hole with no return. Florida means lots and lots of press. Even if the delegate numbers are low, the nationwide attention on Florida is still very high. Also, the general election in November is highly dependent on Florida, so money spent now will roll over to November. If Paul expected, or believed he had a legitimate shot at the nomination, the spending money in Florida makes sense.




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