Europe and US Be Aware - Winter Is Returning...

Canada Ontario Ottawa -30C breezyyyyy

Will come up with picture..

I'm looking forward to the promised weekend update!

Am I missing something here? The OP was basically a weather report that said 'Winter weather coming, wrap up warm!". What's it got to do with conspiracy?

reply to post by FlyingSpaghettiMonster


This thread is in a forum called Fragile Earth. There is no prerequisite for conspiracy to come into play. Please note the forum's description at the top of each page just there beside the forum's name. In this forum, you will see this:

Fragile Earth: Discussion of climate change, pollution, and environment issues

That's it. Nothing more needed to make it a legitimate thread.

and it's snowing right now at Forest Grove /surrounding areas.. we're 60min from the coast ..

interesting that the weather channels didn't report the the same data as the OP.. i know this because I watched the 'weather' report on the news.. same stuff different day..

anways.. this now has me a bit concerned.. just how bad is it going to get..

can someone else report in on your area.. ?

Weekend Update

Evening all, unfortunately i really dont have a whole lot of time to provide a really detailed update, however, i have prepared some information below.

Canada/USA

As some of you will be aware, the colder weather patterns have already arrived in some northern states and Canada. The prognosis for the next week is much of the same. What we are seeing is general agreement in the models, even though it has taken all weekend for a stronger agreement to arrive. We are looking at a cold sweep in the nrthern states, spreading west to east. I dont want to be too assertive at the moment but i believe we could see quite a potent east coast snow event at the tail end of this week. We could be loking at quite a plummet in temperature with possibly widespread snow. Its always notoriously difficult to predict precipitaion, especially whether it will be snow or rain. As i'm sure many of you are aware, it can be a blizzard 20 miles away and nothing at home...

I have prepared a series of maps below to try and illustate what i believe will arrive over the northern states in the US and Canada over the next week to 10 days.





As with any weather advise, its not guaranteed but what i can say is that with model agreement, the chances are greater for accuracy. My rule of thumb with the above images is that if you live north of the High Risk line, be aware that there will be the potential for some very cold temperatures with a greater risk of disruption in the event of snow. Using this rule, following the lines down through green and yellow, the hazard diminishes. Anywhere south of the yellow line, although not expemt from the cold and snow...the chances of disruption (unless at elevation) are slimmer.

UK

The UK is proving harder to detail as the models are slightly off with what could occur. The ECM has been performing well over the past few days and it seems to be the favoured for the short term. With that in mind, it is producing a bit of a "beast from the east" towards the end of next weekend. Although this is still in "Fantasy Island", other models are falling in line with this output. GFS has been doing very well with predicting storms this winter but there seems to be a bit of a struggle from it during this past week with the changing dynamics...The UKMO is slowly coming in line but whether or not any of them change significantly over the next 24-48 hours is anyones guess. If any of them do, then snow and cold projections will be back to the drawing board. So with that in mind what can we expect?

Well a "beast from the east" usually delivers cold and snow to the entire easten half of the UK, with the potential to spread west through low lying areas like the Midland and the Central Belt in Scotland. An easterly usually delivers a good amoumt of snow through convection over the North Sea, similar to "lake effect snow" in North America through the Great Lakes.

We could see temperatues struggling to get above 0oC throughout the day at the end of the weekend, with snow likely anywhere in the East. If the models verify, we could see this weather arrive at our shores around the 20th - 21st.

Conclusion

We are looking at snow and cold potential spreading west to east in Canada and the northern states of the US over the next week to 10 days. There is potential for quite a snow event on the eastern US towards the end of the week, around the 20th. This cold could be quite significant in nature.

The UK will see the cold air at the moment last a couple more days before a brief milder spell arrives, but toward the wekend we will see a return to colder conditions which in turn will allow the significant cold to materialise, especially in the East. By the end of this week, 20th onwards, we could see plenty of snow blow in off the North Sea, if all goes well.

Please bear in mind that the models can and will change over the course of the next few days but as you can all appreciate, the original purpose of this thread was to illustrate that this milder weather is coming to an end and this forth coming week should highlight that to many.

clear,concise and easy to understand

been very cold here in yorkshire today with the frost only clearing around 1pm, and set for another cold night.
thanks once again for your time and effort to keep us all informed

reply to post by jrmcleod


I just wanted to respond again to say good job! I bet this is one of the few predictions on ATS to happen. Now I just hope classes get canceled Tuesday and Wednesday so I can catch up

Excellent work OP. People i told didn't believe. As when I told them, it was plus 12 Celsius,(53 f) here in mid B.C. This week, down to - 24 C(-11.2 f) all week and snow.

Well crap. All you guys talking about cold weather jinxed us and made it happen!

Originally posted by FlyingSpaghettiMonster
Am I missing something here? The OP was basically a weather report that said 'Winter weather coming, wrap up warm!". What's it got to do with conspiracy?

The answer to the first question is yes. Did you notice the Forum's name?
Good work OP

Thanks for the update OP.

I for one really do appreciate the time and effort that you have put in to this and as I am sure others will also agree that your reputation remains excellent!

Many thanks

s and f for another great informative post. just been checking out ugrib and at the moment for next monday its predicting fairly high winds travelling easterly from iceland (current low pressure is 966mb) then turning south easterly to hit the uk with the winds decreaseing. no sign of the high pressure in the atlantic moving

reply to post by CosmicEgg
Hear, hear ComsmicEgg star to you and thanks for pointing out what this forum is all about.

Quick update from Southern Lakes on the North West Coast of the United Kingdom. The drop in degrees here has been immense with major ground frost, cars frosted over, grass froze etc ect. It is I suspect too cold for snow here yet but if a warm front moves in then there will be snow. As I posted in a previous thread of yours Mr McLeod, we are lucky to get snow here but your predictions were right and we had snow as I posted. There is a high salt content in the air here so we usually avoid many problems but I am prepared and have used that information gathering program face book to try and alert others to the dangers, especially friends that are elderly, unwell, vulnerable & that have stables and farms. As with most things I try to warn them about 97% have paid no mind...well if they suffer then it is their own fault...so be it.

Your threads are great and I wish to thank you once more for taking time out and putting in the effort to give us all, whatever Country we may be in warning and an heads up. Some do not understand that the threads you produce are Fantasy Island threads but we shall not let the ignorant put us off or insult you either.

As I said I hope things are nothing like the winter of 1995 as the drifts then were massive and getting around was near impossible, I was only 15 then & full of energy but still struggled to make it the mile or so into town on foot with friends. I may be wrong it may have been the winter of 1994, I am not sure but anyway's I hope that things do not become as bad as then.

With peace, love & unity we may just make it into the next century...

Wishing you's all the best.

reply to post by MRuss


Winter like every other season is 12 weeks long. It just started on Dec 21, that was just over three weeks ago. We have three weeks more before we are even at the half way point.

reply to post by tizza2k


Wow amazing. Someone should give that guy his own 800 number. He's psychic. Call me now ....

Lets look at this another way.
No season exists in a vacuum. They follow one after the other along with the conditions present during any season.
In the spring here in Virginia it is very cool and wet. We are considered the south here in the states and so warmer than other areas but spring here is odd. Up north is gets gradually warmer, not here. In May, about 6 weeks into spring it suddenly gets hot. There is no middle ground, it is cool and wet and then bam its summer.
Every fall the warm temps hold on well into October. My kids seldom had to wear a coat over their halloween costumes. We even have a term for this mild weather in the autumn. We call it Indian summer. It usually hits about the same time that the leaf color is maxing out.
Next season in line is Winter. It begins on Dec 21 and ends on Mar 21. It is not ususual for it to be mild at the start of any season or for the conditions of the previous season to continue on into the early parts of the next season. There is no giant thermostat in the sky that gets moved to freezing as soon as the calendar says Dec 21.
Another condition we will experience here is a mid winter thaw. We should get temps high up in the 70's some time late Jan to mid Feb. The temps will go up and down. It happens every year. It is not a conspiracy.
Now these are conditions here in the southern part of the US and Virginia is a coastal state and warmed by the Gulf stream so I know that this is not the same in other parts of the globe.
The point is that weather patterns are inconsistant in their consistancies. Sometimes its cold in the summer and sometimes its warm in the winter. Maybe mother nature is menopausal.

Originally posted by InvisibleAlbatross
Well crap. All you guys talking about cold weather jinxed us and made it happen!

I believe in the law of attraction !

reply to post by jrmcleod


Thanks for the update

The last 5 days in the South East UK the temp has dropped at night and we are now getting frosts and ice in the mornings.

Although the daytimes, while chilly still. It's been beautifully sunny and the skies are very clear.

A big difference from a week or so ago when it was so mild i was still sleeping with my window open and my pot plants on the balcony were sprouting way to early.

I know late-ish winters and snowfall can be quite common in the UK. But this year has been such a contrast from last year. I seem to remember the MSM fearmongering quite some around that time saying this is a sign of things to come, our winters are going to start being very harsh, very early etc.

Originally posted by skitzspiricy

I know late-ish winters and snowfall can be quite common in the UK. But this year has been such a contrast from last year. I seem to remember the MSM fearmongering quite some around that time saying this is a sign of things to come, our winters are going to start being very harsh, very early etc.

I warned my new neighbour that it would be hell getting in and out of where we live and now I look stupid
It's seems as if there has been topsy turvy weather all round.
I am therefore mindful of the the fact that our spring could go pear shaped too. Here's hoping it doesn't though.

Originally posted by starchild10

Originally posted by FlyingSpaghettiMonster
Am I missing something here? The OP was basically a weather report that said 'Winter weather coming, wrap up warm!". What's it got to do with conspiracy?

The answer to the first question is yes. Did you notice the Forum's name?
Good work OP

edit on 16-1-2012 by starchild10 because: (no reason given)

How is a forecast of normal winter weather evidence of 'fragile earth'?